Future AIM modeling modeling Future AIM ~Focused on mid- -term national integrated assessment models~ term national integrated assessment models~ ~Focused on mid Yuzuru Matsuoka Yuzuru Matsuoka The 11 1th AIM International Workshop th AIM International Workshop The 1 19 9- -21 21, , February February 200 2006 6 1 At Ohyama Ohyama Memorial Hall Memorial Hall At National Institute for Environmental Studies, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 305- -8506,Tsukuba, Japan 8506,Tsukuba, Japan 305 Future direction of AIM, 2006 1
Focusing Focusing •AIM project(B52) •APEIS points points •Low Carbon Society toward 2050 Project （ S3) •Climate Impact Top-down project （ S4) •Others •Reinforcement of national/regional integrated assessment processes coupled with global assessment processes. •Expansion of global warming specific issues to more comprehensive integration of environmental issues, such as low material society, WEHAB problems, and so on. Future direction of AIM, 2006 2
AIM model family, FY2003 AIM model family, FY2003 Constructing Work-support- Top-down/CGE End-use, Energy, Technology Bottom-up Impact Assessment Others Institution type tooｌ APEIS/St AIM/Impact[Count AIM/Impact[policy AIM/DVM-LU AIM/Institution AIM/Common AIM/Ecosystem AIM/Material AIM/CGE AIM/Trend AIM/Enduse[local] AIM/Enduse[country] AIM/Enduse[global] AIM/Impact AIM/Water AIM/Air A-GIS rategy ry] ] (tentative name) (tentative name) (tentative name) Database Database CO2 reduction, energy Conservation of consumption, Integration of Impact ecosystem/ water Evaluate country- International analysis waste GHG,SO2,NOX,PM Impact Impact mitigation policy assessment of egotiation, Data of stress/ landuse/ Energy, GHG wise GHG,SO2,NOX,PM GHG,SO2,NOX,PM Impact Environmental Category management. abatement assessment of assessment of evaluation and climate change Sharing of data pollution in Control environmental abatement technology abatement technology assessment Assesment international visualization counterm environmental technology climate change climate change impact and land-use developing problems relations easure industry, and assessment change countries recycling-based society analysis for effect Investigation of innovation Modeling of Economic and stabilization level Integrated Integrated Regional and Addition of Quantification and Supporting Sharing of input al relationship among material flow Technology selection Technology selection Technology selection Impact Impact and mitigation assessment of the assessment of country scale geographic Long-term global analysis of energy constructing and output of AIM counterm Objective economic impact by waste for global warming, for global warming, for global warming, assessment at assessment at policy with interaction among water supply and atmospheric information to international family's models in easure warming and environmental activities, land use management and regional air pollution regional air pollution regional air pollution global scale country scale considering climate, vegetation demand focusing environmental output of AIM variables institution unified format against and ecosystem climate policy consequent and land-use on urban area analysis family's model environme impacts ntal problem Incorporating knowledge base and Global economic Tool for Integrated model City model information of Interface Country-level Country-level or Country-level or Country-level or Process model Process model Atmospheric model + various Country economic Global economic synthesizing (process model + （coupling process international between AIM Bottom- Model type econometric regional-level regional-level bottom- regional-level bottom- based on raster based on raster quality model + Database process models model top-down model current global economic and statistical institutions with family's model up model model bottom-up model up model up model GIS data GIS data GIS sucha as water knowledges model) model） AIM models, and and GIS assessing institutions ～2050 (Mitigation Target year ～2100 ～2030-2050 ～2100-2150 ～2032 ～2030 ～2050 ～2050 ～2100 ～2100 policy) ～2150 ～2050 - ～2100 - - -2050 ～2100 (Impact) Sharing of Data statistical data visualization of MA (millennium Tool for country and Data transfer AIM model's ecosystem Carbon tax/ EMF21（Energy local level policy Tool for country and Regional among AIM output assessment)/ APEIS/BKP/ Modeling Forum） making by AIM team local level policy ACROPOLIS EMF21 APEIS AIACC APEIS AIACC BKP,IPCC,Initiativ Next generation of Environmental Destination ACROPOLIS APEIS BKP, IPCC family's models Data transfer APEIS APEIS/ General Coming top-down APEIS IPCC in each country, making by AIM team APEIS BKP IPCC GEF GEF e AIM model Planning, Auxiliary Provision of among AIM environmental fund UNEP/GEO4 Estimation of future in each country benefit analysis interface for models with analysis GHG inventories output of AIM consistency in family's model spatial scale Assess reduction Simple Assess country-level Supplement tool Characteristics of Urbanization, Coupled with of environmental environmental energy and GHG Distribution To assess of AIM family's regional detailed Bottom-up model Full couple model water use AIM/Enduse[local] Ecosytem and loads by promoting Main model for burden estimation reduction policy, Main package for Communication efficiency and model Supplement Interface resolution, Interface covering world region Flagship model of of land-use and management, , analysis of Content landuse in global recycle, top-down energy model that can be tool to achieve collaborative tool for equity of UNFCCC Interface of tool of AIM of policy between regional air and supplemented by AIM/Impact study land-cover coupling water regional env. problems environmental model operated by reduction target for research teams of policymakers and the Kyoto stakeholders for family's model makers pollution and energy AIM/CGE changes quantity and atmospheric industry and policymakers in AIM team in each AIM Protocol etc. output of AIM management quality problem environment investment each country country family's model Short for cabon Short-term: short-term: tax in Japan and EMF21, middle- Work time Middle for MA/ ACROPOLIS, EMF21, Short -Medium Short - BKP/ long for term: APEIS, Operational Operational Operational Operational Short/Mid term Mid term Mid/Long term Short/Mid term Soon Short/Mid term Short -Medium schedule Middle for APEIS middle-term: APEIS, Medium application to GEO4, long-term: BKP, long-term:IPCC Asian countries IPCC ○ carbob tax / 1:MoE BKP / recycling- ○ＢＫＰ ○ＢＫＰ ○BKP ○BKP based society 2:APEIS ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ 3:MA ○ ○ △ 4:EMF21 ○ ○ 5:ACROPOLIS ○ ○ 5:IPCC ○ ○ ○BKP ○ △ 6:GEO, etc △Asian countries ○ＧＥＯ４ ○ＧＥＯ４ ○ ○ ○ ○AIACC,GEF ○Initiative ○ MOE, Inside of AIM Asian each country, local MoE, each country MoE, each country Inside of AIM Audience Global MoE/National gov. Outside Outside Outside Outside MoE/outside Outside Outside Local government Outside team, Policy foreign- government, outside government, outside government, outside team makers governme nts Make a linkage Development of Link with Linkage with AIM To include more Fix specification between land-use Linkage of water user interface Reinforce Completion of Link with enduse AIM/AIR(air pollution Link with the country Additional modules Additional modules Incorporating with family's model Task Completion environmental Revision of data and development model and global resource Link with A-GIS and various ment of model model model and GIS, models Manual writing and Manual writing other AIM models Reinforcement of indices schedule in detail dynamic assessment model command for database revision of data database vegetation model interpolation Hibino of Main modeller Masui & Hijioka Masui Fujino Fujino Kainuma Kainuma Kainuma Takahashi, Hijioka Takahashi, Hijioka Takahashi, Hijioka Takahashi Hijioka Fujiwara Kameyama Hibino of FRIC Ishii of FRIC FRIC Future direction of AIM, 2006 3
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