AIM modeling activity FY2012-FY2013 The 18 th AIM International Workshop December 15, 2012 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan Yuzuru Matsuoka
Tabl able of of Cont onten ents 1. 1. Model odels i in n AIM model odel fam amily oper operat ating g FY2012 FY 2012 2. 2. An n Int ntrod oduc uction of n of new new mem embe bers i in n AIM model odel f fam amily i in n FY FY2012 2012 -2013 2013 3. 3. Low Low Car arbon P bon Pol olicy Action ons ( (LC LCP-As) and and suppo upporting ng t tool ools 4. 4. Model odel appl applicat ation ons i in n FY FY2012 and 2012 and FY FY2013 2013 5. B 5. Broc ochu hures publ publishe hed/up upda dated ed in n 2012 2012 2 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
Model odels i in n AIM model odel f fam amily opera operating F FY2012 2012 • AIM/CGE(Global/National) : : One/multi-regi gional onal CGE mode odel. Int nteg egration pl plat atform with h whi hich el elem ement mod odels ar are e sof oft-lin inked ac according to o anal analytical obj objects. Globa obal and and Nat ational scales. Two versions ar are now now in n oper operational stage age; MPSGE ver ersion and and MCP ver ersion on • AIM/Enduse(Global/National) : : One ne or or mul ulti-reg egion onal al, mu mult lti- sec ector oral al bot bottom om-up type pe ene energy end end-us use e mode odel. Integration platform of ener ergy gy service’s gener erat ation on proc oces esses es, ener ergy gy technol hnology ogy dev development, and and LC LCS pol policies. Globa obal, nat national, and and loc ocal scales. • Extended snapshot tool (ExSS) : : A A tool ool for or int nteg egrating futur ure e econom onomic, indus ustrial al, social al and ener ergy gy policies es, using ng social al ac accounting mat atrices, trad ade mat atrices, ener energy bal balan ance tabl ables, ener energy techn hnol ologi ogies es, regional onal ener ergy gy resour ources es information. on. Now ow, cov overs al all mos ost al all sec ectors on on GHG em emissions. Singl ngle/Multi-regi egion onal al accou ount nting ng type e tool. 3 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
Mo Models in n AIM M mod model fami amily ope operating FY20 2012 ed) (cont ontinu nued • Back-casting model/Tool (BCM/BCT): A model del for designi gning ng roadm dmaps aps towar ards ds low carbon bon societ eties es. Dynam amic optimi mization type model. • AFOLU models: Two o type pes ar are now now dev developed. AFOLU LU-A: A new new mode odel for or AFOLU LU sec ector’s ac activity, whi hich des describes the he dr driving for orces of of AFOLU LU sec ectors with h agr agriculture and and for orestry pol policies, food, ood, feed, eed, bi bio-energy, indu ndustrial ac activities, and and land and-us use e balanc nces es. AFOLU LU-B: AFOLU LU sec ector’s GHG em emission red eduction mode odel with h bottom-up p technol hnology ogy coupl uplings ngs. • Element models: Model dels of spec ecific mecha hani nisms of social al- ec economic pr processes and and ene energy ser ervice dem demand, suc uch as as mac acro- econ onom omy, dynam namic demogr ograph aphy, buildi ding ng dynam amics, traffic demand and, e activity. mat aterial stoc ocks and and flow ow, agr agriculture for orestry and and land and-us use 4 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
An n Int ntroduction of of new new mem members in n AIM M mod model fami mily in FY2 Y2012 012 -2013 13 AFOLU-A model Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use Activity model LCP-Action T ools T ools for designing and managing Low Carbon Policy and connecting models’ output with policy actions 5 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
odel AF AFOLU LU-A A model Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use Activity model For projection of activity levels of AFOLU sectors and GHG emissions from these sectors Simple accounting type tool, based on land use accounting table, food balance table and biomass balance table Agriculture and forestry activities are consistent with socio- economic variables from other models, i.e. ExSS, CGE Considering production, consumption, import and export of forestry and agriculture products including bio-energy crops GAMS linear/non-linear program Developed by K.Gomi and Y.Matsuoka Now, applying to national and regional studies of Indonesia 6 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
AF AFOLU LU-A A model odel Its Modules & variables Socio-economic • Population • Population • Urbanization • Industrial output module • Industrial output • Transport demand • Population Energy • Renewable Waste module energy module • Agro waste generation • Biofuel • Wood products demand & demand & supply • Fuel wood • Food & feed supply demand Agriculture demand & supply module Forestry • Crop production • Timber production • Head of livestock • Degraded forest area module • Agricultural • Biofuel production • Deforestation area residue • Protected area Bioenergy Landuse • Fuel crop module module production 7 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
AFOL OLU-B mode model Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use sectors’ Bottom-up type emission reduction model Technology based bottom-up type model, which consist of Agriculture/ Livestock module and FOLU module Calculates GHG emission mitigation potentials and combinations of mitigation technologies in AFOLU sectors, which minimize the net financial costs under arbitrary given conditions. Two types of optimization scheme, 1) Time sequential optimization, 2) Over the entire period optimization Requires information on 1) GHG emission reduction technologies, 2) Future scenarios of productions of agriculture, livestock and forestry and land-use change, 3) Scenarios of prices of commodities and energy, 4) Policy scenarios on GHG emission tax, energy tax rate, subsidies etc. Developed by T.Hasegawa and Y.Matsuoka Applied to national studies of Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Bangladesh 8 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
Coupl upling o g of Ex ExSS SS, AFO AFOLU-A and AFO and AFOLU-B AFOLU-A ExSS • Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry activities • Demographic and Labor Force • Biomass energy production Accounting • Bio-waste accounting • Economic, Industrial and Trade • Landuse accounting Accounting Matrix • Transport demand and Supply • Energy demand and Supply Low Carbon • Energy saving and emission reduction Policy technologies Actions Low Carbon Policy Actions AFOLU-B GHG emission projection and • Emission reduction technologies reduction potential • Energy saving technologies in AFOLU • Emission from LULC Low Carbon Policy GHG emissions, Energy consumption Actions and Solid Waste disposal in GHG emission projection and reduction potential Residential, Commercial, Industrial, Transportation, and Power sectors GHG emissions, Biowaste generation from AFOLU sectors 9 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
Coupl oupling of ng of Ex ExSS SS, A AFO FOLU LU-A and and AFO FOLU LU-B As an an int nteg egrated des design and and as assessment tool ool for or Low Carbon bon Policies es AFOLU-A ExSS • Demographic and Labor Force • Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry activities Accounting • Biomass energy production • Economic, Industrial and Trade • Bio-waste accounting Accounting Matrix • Landuse accounting • Transport demand and Supply • Energy demand and Supply AFOLU-B Enduse (Abridged version) • Emission reduction technologies • Emission reduction technologies in Non • Energy saving technologies in AFOLU AFOLU sectors • Emission from LULC • Energy saving technologies in non AFOLU sectors Low Carbon Policy Actions GHG emission projection and reduction potential 10 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
Up to now, we proposed many “Low Carbon Policy Actions (LCP-As)” For example, 11 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
“Low Carbon Policy Actions (LCP-As)” and related LCD framework, such as NAMA Low Carbon Policy Actions (LCP-As) UNEP Riso Centre, 2011, A primer on framing NAMA in Developing Countries 12 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
Low Carbon Policy Actions (LCP-As) LCP-A is a deliverable- oriented grouping of elementally programs that organizes and totals the scope of the LCP . Overall structure of LCP-As is shown with its Work Breakdown Structure (LCP- Action Breakdown Structure). It is a graphical format of hierarchically displaying deliverable measures and projects, which are further broken down into more detailed deliverables. An example of LCP-ABS from IMLCSBP 13 AIM modeling activity, FY2012-2013
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