th AIM International Workshop The 8 th AIM International Workshop The 8 13- -15 March 2003 15 March 2003 13 NIES, Tsukuba, Japan NIES, Tsukuba, Japan Recent Development of Recent Development of AIM Models AIM Models Mikiko Kainuma Mikiko Kainuma National Institute for Environmental Studies National Institute for Environmental Studies
Publication Publication AIM/Emission AIM/Enduse 1000 1000 Average cost for CO2 2 2030 Transport Industry 900 900 reduction, yuan/t-C (Chap. 5 – 10) Rural 800 800 Commerce 700 700 Agriculture 600 600 500 500 400 400 n a b r 300 300 U 200 200 Mt-CO 2 100 100 0 0 5 <3 0 0 5 5 10 10 15 15 20 20 25 25 30 30 35 35 40 40 Rate of accumulated CO 2 reduction (%) 10 Rate of accumulated CO 2 reduction (%) 20 >21 40 CO 2 emission in 2030 AIM/Emission-Linkage AIM/Bottom-up AIM/Local AIM/Energy-Economics AIM/Material AIM/Land-Equilibrium Inventory activity (Chap. 11) (Chap. 2) GDP loss after mitigation Recycling Fossil Intensive Mitigation from green consumption Mitigation from taxation policy Society Gt-C Society Mitigation from 40 40 40 40 technological improvement Without Mitigation from Counter 30 30 environmental investment 30 30 Measures GDP loss due to CO2 and CO 2 2007 solid waste constraints 20 20 AIM/Country 20 20 without countermeasures Year 750 ppm 10 10 2010 10 10 Mitigation of GDP loss 550 ppm 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 GDP loss from reference case GDP loss from reference case (Trillion yen at 1995 prices) (Trillion yen at 1995 prices) Global CO 2 emissions and reduction for stabilization AIM/Impact AIM/Global AIM/Land AIM/CGE (Energy) AIM/CGE-Linkage AIM/Water (Chap. 4) AIM/Agriculture AIM/Ecosystem AIM/Vegetation 0.1 GDP change (%) 0 AIM/Health etc. -0.1 (Chap. 3, 12) -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 Japan USA EU FSU GDP change by the Kyoto with and without USA GDP change by the Kyoto with USA and without USA 12 -500 0 +500 (kg/ha) -500 0 +500 (kg/ha) AIM/Trend Change in potential productivity of rice 10 Changes in potential productivity of rice (Chap. 13) 8 AIM/Climate 6 Atmospheric model Brunei UD Ocean model Palau Singapore 4 Kazakhstan Korea, Dem Korea, Rep Taiwan Australia Nauru Japan Turkmenistan Malaysia Radiative forcing model Mongolia Iran Uzbekistan New Zealand China Thailand Tonga 2 Fiji Kyrgyz Republic French Polynesia GCM,RegCM interface India AIM/Database Tajikistan Philippines Indonesia Samoa Maldives CO 2 emission per capita Sri Lanka Vietnam Nepal Myanmar (Chap. 14) Pakistan 0 Vanuatu Papua New Guinea (t-C/capita) 2032 Kiribati Bangladesh 2025 Laos 2015 Solomon Islands 2005 Bhutan 1995 Cambodia Year AIM family (Chap. 1)
AIM/Emission-Linkage AIM/Bottom-up, AIM/Energy-Economics, AIM/Land-Equilibrium Recycling Fossil Intensive Society Gt-C Society 40 40 40 40 Without Counter 30 30 30 30 Measures 20 20 20 20 750 ppm 10 10 10 10 550 ppm 0 0 0 0 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 2000 2050 2100 Global CO 2 emissions and reduction for stabilization
AIM/CGE (Energy) 0.1 GDP change (%) 0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 Japan USA EU FSU -100 GDP change by the Kyoto with and without USA -90 -80 -70 Change of productivity (%) -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 Myanmar Cambodia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Lao PDR Bangladesh Nepal Viet Nam Sri Lanka India Indonesia Bhutan e Taiwan c n e r Korea DPR e f e R 0 5 China 5 E R Korea Republic W 0 5 5 I G Japan W 0 S 5 5 c D e I M n a r i o Change in winter wheat productivity from 1990 to 2100
AIM/Climate Atmospheric model, UD Ocean model Radiative forcing model, GCM-RegCM interface -500 0 +500 (kg/ha) Changes in potential productivity of rice
AIM/Enduse China, India, Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Bangladesh 0 . 0 0 1 0 0 . 0 0 2 0 0 . 0 0 3 0 0 . 0 0 4 0 0 . 0 0 5 0 0 . 0 0 2030 6 0 0 . 0 0 7 0 0 . 0 0 8 0 0 . 0 0 9 0 0 . 0 0 1 0 0 0 . 0 0 1 1 0 0 . 0 0 1 2 0 0 . 0 0 1 3 0 0 . 0 0 1 4 0 0 . 0 0 1 5 0 0 . 0 0 > = 1 6 0 0 . 0 0 Million Ton Million Ton < 3 0 3 - 6 5 6 - 9 9 - 12 10 12 -15 15 15 - 18 20 18 - 21 > 21 40 Regional distribution of CO 2 CO 2 emission intensity emissions in India for 2030 in for 2010 in China reference scenario
AIM/Material (Japan, India, China) GDP loss after mitigation Mitigation from green consumption Mitigation from taxation policy Mitigation from technological improvement Mitigation from environmental investment GDP loss due to CO2 and 2007 solid waste constraints without countermeasures Year 2010 Mitigation of GDP loss 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 GDP loss from reference case (Trillion yen at 1995 prices)
AIM/Impact [Country] (1) Development of input GIS data for model (2) Impact/Adaptation assessment GIS data scaled down for Input GIS data for impact Model parameters Global GIS data GIS tool for spatial interpolation GIS tool for trimming away GIS tool for input data national scale assessment assessment models ex-focused area (Scenario Creator) development Penman-PET model Thornthwaite-PET model Potential crop productivity model Surface runoff model River discharge model Water demand model Malarial potential model Holdridge vegetation classification Koeppen vegetation classification Socioeconomic and GHG Vegetation shift potential model emissions scenarios (3) Analysis of GIS data and outputs P R E F . I D N A T R E G P R E F V A L U E GIS output data of 3 9 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 J P N H o k k a i d oH o k k a i d o 1 2 3 9 2 0 2 0 1 0 0 J P N T o h o k u A o m o r i - 1 0 the impact 3 9 2 0 2 0 4 0 0 J P N T o h o k u A k i t a - 5 data on IDRIDI Interface tool for visualizing aggregation sub-national GIS tool for spatial data viewer visualizing data on plain Interface tool for 3 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 0 J P N T o h o k u I w a t e - 5 assessment model 3 9 2 0 2 0 4 0 0 J P N T o h o k u A k i t a 2 3 9 2 0 2 0 5 0 0 J P N T o h o k u Y a m a g a t a 3 3 9 2 0 2 0 3 0 0 J P N T o h o k u M i y a g i - 1 3 3 9 2 0 4 0 1 0 0 J P N H o k u r i k u N i i g a t a - 2 3 9 2 0 2 0 6 0 0 J P N T o h o k u F u k u s h i m a 8 3 9 2 0 4 0 3 0 0 J P N H o k u r i k u I s h i k a w a - 6 3 9 2 0 3 0 2 0 0 J P N K a n t o T o c h i g i - 7 3 9 2 0 3 0 3 0 0 J P N K a n t o G u m m a 1 5 3 9 2 0 5 0 2 0 0 J P N C h u b u N a g a n o 1 7 3 9 2 0 4 0 2 0 0 J P N H o k u r i k u T o y a m a 1 2 3 9 2 0 3 0 1 0 0 J P N K a n t o I b a r a k i - 1 GIS data for sub-national spatial aggregation
AIM/Trend South Asia South Asia South Asia Afghanistan Afghanistan Afghanistan Bangladesh Bangladesh Bangladesh MK : Market First MK : Market First SC : Security First SC : Security First 300 300 Bhutan Bhutan Bhutan India India India PO : Policy First PO : Policy First SU : Sustainability First SU : Sustainability First Iran Iran Iran Maldives Maldives Maldives Nepal Nepal Nepal Pakistan Pakistan Pakistan Change in energy-related CO 2 emissions Change in energy-related CO 2 emissions 250 250 Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Southeast Asia Southeast Asia Southeast Asia Brunei Brunei Brunei Cambodia Cambodia Cambodia by 2032 relative to 2002 (%) by 2032 relative to 2002 (%) Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Lao Lao Lao 200 200 Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Myanmar Philippines Philippines Philippines Singapore Singapore Singapore Thailand Thailand Thailand Vietnam Vietnam Vietnam 150 150 East Asia East Asia East Asia China China China Korea, Dem Korea, Dem Korea, Dem Japan Japan Japan Korea, Rep Korea, Rep Korea, Rep 100 100 Mongolia Mongolia Mongolia Taiwan, China Taiwan, China Taiwan, China Central Asia Central Asia Central Asia MK MK MK PO PO PO Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Kazakhstan Kyrgyz Republic Kyrgyz Republic Kyrgyz Republic SC SC SC SU SU SU 50 50 Tajikistan Tajikistan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Turkmenistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Uzbekistan Uzbekistan ANZ and South Pacific ANZ and South Pacific ANZ and South Pacific 0 0 MK MK MK MK MK MK Australia Australia Australia New Zealand New Zealand New Zealand PO PO PO MK MK MK PO PO PO MK MK MK SC SC SC SU SU SU SC SC SC SU SU SU PO PO PO PO PO PO SC SC SC SU SU SU SC SC SC SU SU SU Fiji Fiji Fiji Kiribati Kiribati Kiribati Nauru Nauru Nauru Palau Palau Palau -50 -50 Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea Papua New Guinea French Polynesia French Polynesia French Polynesia ANZ and ANZ and South Asia South Asia South East Asia South East Asia East Asia East Asia Central Asia Central Asia Tonga Tonga Tonga Vanuatu Vanuatu Vanuatu South Pacific South Pacific Samoa Samoa Samoa Solomon Islands Solomon Islands Solomon Islands Energy related CO 2 emissions in sub- regions of the Asia-Pacific region
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