eceee Summer study Evaluation of the economic and ecological effects of the French ‘bonus malus’ for new cars Dr. Gaël Callonnec Nicolas Blanc Agency for Environment and Energy Management France
Bonus malus on car sales per emission class The limit of each taxation class will be reduced by 5 gCO2 every two years, until 2012
The bonus malus effects on the market shares of the energetical classes
The model of « willingness to pay »
The “interclass switch” model When demand for one class, shown in the columns, rises under the effect of a bonus, sales of the inferior classes shown in the rows (below the diagonal of the table) decline by an amount equal to this growth multiplied by the corresponding coefficient. When demand for one class decreases under the effect of a malus, sales of the superior classes (above the diagonal of the table) grow by an amount equal to the fall multiplied by the corresponding coefficient.
Comparative results of various models
The effects of the oil price growth on the cars registrations The consumer price of oil rose by 27% during the first half of 2008. This inflation would be responsible for more than half the sales growth of class B vehicles.
The environmental effect of the french bonus malus gCO2 per km
The economical effects of the bonus malus A positive effect on the french automobile market in 2008 - sales of classes A and B vehicles increased by 18% - Sales by French manufacturers increased by 2.1% - the sales reduction of new vehicles has been limited to -0.7%. In a difficult international context - new registrations fell by -8,3 % in 2008 in western Europe - collapse by -28.1% in Spain, -13.4% in Italy, -11.3% in Great Britain and -1.8% in Germany For a modest cost - The system cost M € 300 to the public budget in 2008 - The deficit should disapear with the proressiv modification of the rates until 2012.
The bonus malus effect on the market shares of the energetical classes in 2012
General principles for an extension of the bonus-malus scheme Clearly defined environmental issues that can be easily understood by the population Good substitutability between good and bad products (sailing boat/engine boat) Balanced budget between bonus and malus No negative effect on the purchase power of poorest people (cars vs. fridges) Reliable and systematic measurements or criteria for environmental impact are needed (label) Regular update of the scheme Need for an adapted marketing campaign
Good candidates TV sets? Batteries and accumulators? Paints and detergents (using the European Ecolabel as a criterion)? Motorcycles, LDVs?
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