2nd International Workshop on Uncertainty in GHG Inventories, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 27 - 28 September 2007 E mission E stimation of Solid Waste Disposal Sites According to the Uncertainty Analysis Methodology Janka Szemesová Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Bratislava Martin Gera Faculty of Mathematics Physics and Informatics, Comenius University
Topics (1) � UNFCCC and KP Position of the SR SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE � National Inventory System � Emission Trends (1990-2005) � Key Categories 1990 - 2005 � Sector Waste Overview 2nd International Workshop on Uncertainty in GHG Inventories, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 27 - 28 September 2007
Topics (2) � Uncertainty Computation SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE � Monte Carlo Methods � Initialisation of First Order Decay Model � Data Sensitivity � Results � Conclusions 2nd International Workshop on Uncertainty in GHG Inventories, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 27 - 28 September 2007
UNFCCC and KP Position of the SR(1) � UN Framework Convention on Climate Change - SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE 1992 � SR: 1994, succession (after split of Czechoslovakia in 1993) � Annex I country of UNFCCC (developed countries) � Kyoto Protocol to the FCCC – 1997 � SR: Signature 1998, Ratification 31 May, 2002 � In force 16 February 2005 � Annex B country of KP (reduction commitment 8%, base year 1990) � Not part of EU burden sharing agreement 2nd International Workshop on Uncertainty in GHG Inventories, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 27 - 28 September 2007
UNFCCC and KP Position of the SR(2) ■ Reduction Target Commitment 2008-2012 – 8% SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE GHG emission trends compared with the Kyoto target (%) 120 Kyoto target CO2 emissions 100 CH4 emissions 92.0 80 N2O emissions Aggreg. GHGs 60 emissions 40 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2010 2012 Total reduction in 2005 – 34% (excluding LULUCF) 33% (including LULUCF) 2nd International Workshop on Uncertainty in GHG Inventories, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 27 - 28 September 2007
UNFCCC and KP Position of the SR(3) ■ Total GHGs in 1990 – 72,1 Mt (excluding LULUCF) ■ Total GHGs in 2005 – 47,9 Mt (excluding LULUCF) SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE GHG emission trends with projections until 2010 (%) from Biennial Report 2007 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2008 2010 Total GHG Without Measures With Measures With Other Measures 2nd International Workshop on Uncertainty in GHG Inventories, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 27 - 28 September 2007
National Inventory System SR (1) In the line with IPCC GPG 2000, SR as Annex I country � SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE National Inventory System was establish! Single National Entity = Slovak Hydromet. Institute - according � to Act 478/2002, Art. 5 par. 7, Art. 7, par. 1) – Act on Air Officially published in Vestnik MZP SR /No 3/2007 � compilation of National Inventory Report, � compilation of emission inventory in CRFReporter, � inventory planning, preparation, management and archiving � QA/QC plan � ensure TCCCA as high quality as possible � 2nd International Workshop on Uncertainty in GHG Inventories, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 27 - 28 September 2007
National Inventory System SR (2) � Management of the NIS by the national SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE circumstances DECENTRALIZED - sectoral experts make decisions � about methodology, activity data, uncertainty..., OUT-SOURCED - research and academic institutions, � private companies, individual experts on contract basis..., SINGLE AGENCY - Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, � Department of Emissions INTEGRATED - emission inventory of all pollutants � (GHGs, Basic & Other pollutants, Projections) 2nd International Workshop on Uncertainty in GHG Inventories, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 27 - 28 September 2007
National Inventory System SR (3) SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV Official web page: www.ghg-inventory.gov.sk SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE 2nd International Workshop on Uncertainty in GHG Inventories, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 27 - 28 September 2007
National Inventory System SR (4) SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE 2nd International Workshop on Uncertainty in GHG Inventories, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 27 - 28 September 2007
E mission Trends (1990-2005) Total aggregated emissions by sectors: � Energy – 80% -36% SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV � SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE Industrial Processes – 8% +3% � Solvent Use – <1 NA � Agriculture – 8% -54% � Waste – 4% +40% � The aggregated emissions of greenhouse gases by sectors in 1990-2005 80,000 Agriculture 60,000 CO2 eq. (Gg) Waste 40,000 LULUCF 20,000 Solvent Use 0 Industry -20,000 Energy 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2nd International Workshop on Uncertainty in GHG Inventories, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 27 - 28 September 2007
Key Categories 2005 (1) All key source categories are covered in inventory with the � higher attention! SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE Key sources by level assessment 2005: Tier 1 IPCC GPG – 16 sources Base Year Current Year Cumulative Direct Level IPCC Source Categories Estimate Estimate Total of GHG Assesment (1990) (2005) Column E 1.A.2 Manufacturing Industries and Construction CO 2 23,998.4378 12,253.7231 25.5999 25.5999 1.A.1 Energy Industries CO 2 15,654.1783 11,274.9680 23.5551 49.1550 1.A.3.b Transport - Road Transportation CO 2 4,500.9371 6,095.0000 12.7334 61.8884 1.A.4 Other sector CO 2 10,520.3514 4,845.1305 10.1222 72.0106 4.D Agricultural Soils N 2 O 3,582.1515 1,688.8445 3.5283 75.5389 1.A.5.a Other non-specified CO 2 1,679.0780 1,430.9723 2.9895 78.5284 2(I).B.2 Nitric Acid Production N 2 O 1,167.3050 1,254.3279 2.6205 81.1489 6.A Solid Waste Disposal on Land CH 4 469.7700 1,249.9200 2.6113 83.7601 2(I).A.1 Cement Production CO 2 1,438.0088 1,233.5090 2.5770 86.3371 4.A Enteric Fermentation CH 4 1,990.1616 943.0329 1.9701 88.3073 6.B Wastewater Handling CH 4 1,012.0541 686.3084 1.4338 89.7411 2(I).A.2 Lime Production CO 2 770.4160 677.1150 1.4146 91.1557 1.B.1.b Fugitive Emission from Oil, Natural Gas and Other CH 4 513.4961 671.0913 1.4020 92.5577 2(I).C.1 Iron and Steel Production CO 2 420.2570 506.0000 1.0571 93.6148 2(I).A.7 Magnezite Use CO 2 431.9363 475.9960 0.9944 94.6092 2(I).A.3 Limestone and Dolomite Use CO 2 302.1217 471.1860 0.9844 95.5936 2nd International Workshop on Uncertainty in GHG Inventories, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 27 - 28 September 2007
Key Categories 1990 - 2005 (2) Key sources by trend assessment 2005: Tier 1 IPCC GPG – 23 sources IPCC Source Categories Direct Base Year Current Year Level Cumulative SLOVENSKÝ HYDROMETEOROLOGICKÝ ÚSTAV GHG Estimate Estimate Assessment Total of SLOVAK HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE (1990) (2005) Column E CO 2 equivalents (Gg) % 1.A.2 Manufacturing Industries and Construction CO 2 23,998.4378 12,253.7231 25.5999 25.5999 1.A.1 Energy Industries CO 2 15,654.1783 11,274.9680 23.5551 49.1550 1.A.3.b Transport - Road Transportation CO 2 4,500.9371 6,095.0000 12.7334 61.8884 1.A.4 Other sector CO 2 10,520.3514 4,845.1305 10.1222 72.0106 4.D Agricultural Soils N 2 O 3,582.1515 1,688.8445 3.5283 75.5389 1.A.5.a Other non-specified CO 2 1,679.0780 1,430.9723 2.9895 78.5284 2(I).B.2 Nitric Acid Production N 2 O 1,167.3050 1,254.3279 2.6205 81.1489 6.A Solid Waste Disposal on Land CH 4 469.7700 1,249.9200 2.6113 83.7601 2(I).A.1 Cement Production CO 2 1,438.0088 1,233.5090 2.5770 86.3371 4.A Enteric Fermentation CH 4 1,990.1616 943.0329 1.9701 88.3073 6.B Wastewater Handling CH 4 1,012.0541 686.3084 1.4338 89.7411 2(I).A.2 Lime Production CO 2 770.4160 677.1150 1.4146 91.1557 1.B.1.b Fugitive Emission from Oil, Natural Gas and Other CH 4 513.4961 671.0913 1.4020 92.5577 2(I).C.1 Iron and Steel Production CO 2 420.2570 506.0000 1.0571 93.6148 2(I).A.7 Magnezite Use CO 2 431.9363 475.9960 0.9944 94.6092 2(I).A.3 Limestone and Dolomite Use CO 2 302.1217 471.1860 0.9844 95.5936 4.B Manure Management N 2 O 1,094.5573 426.7058 0.8915 96.4851 1.B.1.a Coal Mining and Handling CH 4 571.1503 339.6246 0.7095 97.1946 2(I).C.3 Aluminium Production CO 2 121.3200 230.6900 0.4819 97.6765 2(I).F HFCs emissions HFCs 0.0000 174.6451 0.3649 98.0414 1.A.3.b Transport - Road Transportation N 2 O 71.6100 174.6416 0.3649 98.4062 4.B Manure Management CH 4 368.6568 160.8772 0.3361 98.7423 2nd International Workshop on Uncertainty in GHG Inventories, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, 27 - 28 September 2007 CO 2 6.C Waste Incineration 0.0000 145.6483 0.3043 99.0466
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