Demographic Coppell Update Independent Spring 2018 School - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Demographic Coppell Update Independent Spring 2018 School District Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow

Economic Conditions – DFW Area (December 2017) 2.8% 33,262 99,800 new jobs 3,202 more National rate 1.2% starts than 4Q16 Unemployment Rate Annual Job Growth U.S. 3.9% Home Starts Texas 3.7% DFW MSA 3.2% Coppell 2.8% -0.5% 2 Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy

Coppell ISD Home Sales 2017 Home Sales by Transaction Type Foreclosure 1% REO Sale 1% 2017 District Home Sales New Resale 34% 64% by Type • Coppell ISD had 1,160 home sales in 2017, and roughly 34% were of new homes • The average sale price in 2017 for a new home in CISD was $535,873 • The average sale price in 2017 for an existing home in CISD was $416,607 3

DFW New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q17 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Frisco ISD 2,486 2,729 4,488 5,628 2 Prosper ISD 2,890 2,692 6,351 24,785 3 Denton ISD 2,037 1,883 2,651 32,583 4 Dallas ISD 2,041 1,854 1,733 7,339 5 Northwest ISD 1,748 1,847 1,941 31,864 6 Little Elm ISD 1,473 1,258 1,227 3,436 7 Lewisville ISD 1,141 1,188 1,943 4,485 8 Rockwall ISD 968 961 1,862 8,291 9 Eagle Mt.‐Saginaw ISD 1,181 925 1,377 19,265 10 McKinney ISD 788 863 1,626 8,084 11 Forney ISD 1,120 850 1,595 13,949 12 Keller ISD 707 816 651 1,698 13 Wylie ISD 813 759 1,164 3,996 14 Mansfield ISD 654 710 1,018 6,836 15 Allen ISD 711 707 1,406 1,208 16 Midlothian ISD 768 611 1,331 19,550 17 Fort Worth ISD 587 606 824 5,034 18 Garland ISD 411 578 390 4,065 19 Crowley ISD 653 537 996 12,584 20 Waxahachie ISD 574 511 754 9,446 21 Coppell ISD* 407 481 328 605 22 Plano ISD 563 445 979 2,288 23 Aledo ISD 546 414 1,169 15,056 24 Anna ISD 497 409 361 4,652 25 HEB ISD 465 393 593 4,386 4 *Based on additional TD Research

New Housing Activity Coppell ISD 180 Starts Closings 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Starts 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Closings 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 1Q 27 22 29 78 126 101 1Q 20 15 22 88 96 99 2Q 29 25 41 89 97 128 2Q 24 31 21 67 103 122 3Q 46 23 83 158 145 108 3Q 26 30 26 80 162 112 4Q 20 30 66 114 93 70 4Q 33 22 20 107 122 148 Total 122 100 219 439 461 407 Total 103 98 89 342 483 481 • Coppell ISD had more than 400 new home starts for the third consecutive year • Within the district there were more than 480 new home closings in 2017 • New home inventory is low at 4.6 month’s supply due to the large amount of closings in the 4 th quarter of 2017 5

Annual Closings Distribution Top 5 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q17 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Annual Rank Subdivision Closings VDL Future 1 Parkside West 163 199 106 2 Bridges at Las Colinas 107 1 0 3 Parkside East 97 9 0 4 East Lake 27 0 0 5 Westhaven (Town Center) 27 72 0 TOTALS 421 281 106 6

Vacant Developed Lots Top 5 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q17 (Ranked by Vacant Developed Lots) Annual Rank Subdivision Closings VDL Future 1 Parkside West 163 199 106 2 Westhaven (Town Center) 27 72 0 3 Red Hawk Villas 7 17 0 4 Kyra Court 0 17 0 5 Parkside East 97 9 0 TOTALS 294 314 106 7

Future Lots Top 5 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q17 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Annual Rank Subdivision Closings VDL Future 1 Stonegate 0 0 206 2 Southaven 0 0 203 3 Parkside West 163 199 106 4 Blackberry Farm Addition 0 0 80 5 Petterson Addition 0 0 7 TOTALS 163 199 602 8

New Home Activity by Elementary Zone Annual Quarterly Annual Quarterly Elementary Zone Inventory VDL Futures Starts Starts Closings Closings AUSTIN 5 3 9 0 5 17 203 COTTONWOOD CREEK 26 8 26 7 3 6 0 DENTON CREEK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAKESIDE 1 0 2 0 1 0 80 LEE 240 37 270 82 92 200 312 MOCKINGBIRD 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PINKERTON 90 10 108 39 35 13 3 TOWN CENTER 39 9 54 13 13 72 0 VALLEY RANCH 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WILSON 6 3 12 7 5 20 7 TOTALS 407 70 481 148 154 328 605 Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category 9

District Housing Overview • Coppell ISD has approx. 330 lots available to build on • The district has more than 600 future lots planned Active Subdivision Future Subdivision • Groundwork is underway on nearly 310 lots 10

Residential Activity Cypress Waters Cypress Waters • Developer estimates 10,000 housing units at build-out • 761 apartment units have been constructed to date • The Sound Apartments Phase 1 (540 units) under construction, first units available 1Q18 • Groundwork on Phase 2 of The Sound started late 2017 The Sound • Developer projects adding approx. 500 additional units Phase 1 & 2 between late 2018- late 2019 • Single family removed from updated concept plan • Full build out is estimated to take 20-30 years • Split between Austin and Lee Elementary Existing multi-family 11

Residential Activity Parkside West and Parkside East Parkside East • 249 total lots • 227 homes occupied • 6 U/C • 9 VDL • Built nearly 100 homes in 2017 • Expected built out mid 2018 • $400K - $650K • Pinkerton Elementary Parkside West • 638 total lots • 106 future lots • 251 homes occupied • 48 U/C • 199 VDL Carrollton-Farmers • Groundwork underway on Phase 2B Branch ISD (final 106 lots) homes starting fall 2018 • Built 163 homes in 2017 • $400K - $650K • Lee Elementary 12

Residential Activity Stonegate & Bridges at Las Colinas Bridges at Las Colinas • 399 total lots • 388 occupied • 3 U/C • 10 VDL • Built out by mid 2018 • $475K-$680K • Lee Elementary Stonegate • 206 total future lots • First lots delivering by end 1Q18 • Pre-sales underway • First residents expected summer 2018 • Built out by Fall of 2020 • $495K - $585K • Lee Elementary Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD 13

Residential Activity Red Hawk Villas Red Hawk Villas • 51 total lots • 31 occupied • 2 U/C • 17 VDL • $550K- $865K • Building 3-5 homes per year • Wilson Elementary 14

Future Residential Activity Southaven (aka. West Cell) Carrollton-Farmers Branch ISD Southaven • 203 total future lots • Sold to new development company • Rezoning approved March 2017 • Austin Elementary 15

Ten Year Forecast By Grade Level Total % Year (Oct.) EE Pre‐K K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Growth Growth 2013/14 49 139 742 784 861 843 873 901 896 874 901 924 894 869 814 11,364 2014/15 40 122 739 791 830 899 910 930 963 930 900 927 889 871 829 11,570 206 1.8% 2015/16 50 153 740 803 841 889 949 940 957 973 960 945 928 880 873 11,881 311 2.7% 2016/17 98 167 826 821 862 928 896 985 1,031 997 1,003 1,039 962 892 863 12,370 489 4.1% 2017/18 44 207 807 899 857 926 947 951 1,047 1,062 1,018 1,058 996 936 859 12,614 244 2.0% 2018/19 44 207 808 876 946 900 964 993 1,017 1,087 1,104 1,108 1,034 956 911 12,955 341 2.7% 2019/20 44 207 809 868 912 983 926 1,007 1,065 1,058 1,122 1,175 1,089 989 928 13,182 227 1.8% 2020/21 44 207 822 883 915 956 1,024 965 1,082 1,107 1,094 1,212 1,144 1,048 958 13,461 279 2.1% 2021/22 44 207 824 889 912 945 987 1,060 1,040 1,112 1,153 1,177 1,185 1,098 1,017 13,650 189 1.4% 2022/23 44 207 842 889 912 943 973 1,024 1,126 1,078 1,152 1,234 1,136 1,138 1,052 13,750 99 0.7% 2023/24 44 207 863 910 908 940 966 999 1,083 1,157 1,118 1,235 1,200 1,092 1,111 13,833 84 0.6% 2024/25 44 207 869 932 936 939 967 999 1,052 1,113 1,201 1,201 1,200 1,153 1,057 13,870 36 0.3% 2025/26 44 207 880 930 958 970 965 1,001 1,052 1,082 1,154 1,261 1,149 1,152 1,093 13,898 28 0.2% 2026/27 44 207 890 948 955 992 998 999 1,052 1,083 1,122 1,230 1,218 1,104 1,110 13,952 54 0.4% 2027/28 44 207 901 959 974 988 1,019 1,034 1,052 1,083 1,124 1,196 1,188 1,170 1,060 13,999 47 0.3% *Yellow box = largest grade per year *Green box = second largest grade per year • Coppell ISD will likely exceed 13,000 students by 2019 • 5 year growth = 1,136 students • 2022/23 enrollment = 13,750 students • 10 year growth = 1,385 students • 2027/28 enrollment = 13,999 students 16