DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE SPRING LAKE SCHOOL DISTRICT August 21, 2017
STATISTICAL FORECASTING Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area. Performed demographic studies for approximately 100 school districts in NY & NJ. Demographic consultant for the NYC Public Schools since 2006.
RICHARD S. GRIP ED.D. Executive Director Doctorate from Rutgers University Graduate School of Education in Educational Statistics and Measurement Numerous publications on school demography and presentations nationally Testified as an expert witness in school demography in several Administrative Law court hearings.
PURPOSE OF THE STUDY Project grade-by-grade enrollments from 2017-18 through 2021-22 Analyze district’s historical enrollments, birth and fertility rates, community population trends, and age structure Impact of new developments on enrollment
SPRING LAKE BOROUGH HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS 1940-2040 4,500 4,215 3,896 4,000 3,567 3,499 3,500 2,993 3,002 3,002 3,002 2,922 3,000 2,500 2,008 2,000 1,650 1,500 Projected Historical 1,000 500 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
SPRING LAKE BOROUGH DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE 97.6% White in 2010 (98.8% in 2000) Median age = 51.9 years (NJ=39.4) 3% of population is foreign-born (NJ=22%). Bachelor’s Degree or Higher = 67% Median family income = $137K (NJ =$88K) Primary occupancy declined from 76% in 2000 to 61% in 2010. Median value of owner-occupied unit = $1.175 million
SCHOOL LOCATION
HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS District’s 2016 -17 enrollment is 197. Enrollment has declined in last 5 years, losing 72 students since peak in 2011-12 (269). Cohort-Survival Ratio Method (CSR) was used to project enrollments five years into the future.
HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS 2007-08 TO 2016-17 300.0 269 267 262 261.5 261 253.5 244 250.0 213 209 197 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD COHORT SURVIVAL RATIO Ratios are calculated for each grade progression. (Ex. 100 1 st graders in 2015-16 become 95 2 nd graders in 2016-17 = 0.95) Survival ratios were computed for ten historical years. Averages were then computed and used to project future enrollments.
SPRING LAKE RESIDENTS NON-PUBLIC ENROLLMENT Year St. Catharine Other Total 2012-13 16 5 21 2013-14 15 3 18 2014-15 7 5 12 2015-16 12 3 15 2016-17 10 5 15
TUITION STUDENTS ATTENDING SCHOOL DISTRICT Accepting tuition students since 2015-16 2015-16: 12 students in grades PK-6 2016-17: 9 students remained in district, 6 new students. 2017-18: 4 new students in district
KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT Negative kindergarten replacement (KR) has occurred in 6 of last 7 years. Magnitudes of negative KR are very small. Negative KR- Number of graduating 8 th grade students is greater than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year. Negative KR was 9 students in 2016-17, as 20 8 th graders graduated in 2015-16 and were replaced by 11 kindergarten students in 2016-17.
HISTORICAL KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT 20 15 10 5 2 0 0 0 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 -5 -5 -6 -7 -10 -9 -15 -18 -18 -20
TOTAL ENROLLMENT CHANGE VS. KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT 20 Kindergarten Replacement Enrollment Change 9 10 6 2 2 0 0 0 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 -1 -4 -5 -6 -7 -10 -8 -9 -12 -17 -18 -18 -20 -30 -31 -40
BIRTHS Births are used to project kindergarten students 5 years later. Births in Spring Lake have been declining. 2002-2005: range was 26-31 (avg. =28). 2013-2015: range was 9-11 (avg. =10). 31 kindergarten students in 2008-09, 11 in 2016-17.
BIRTH COUNTS AND BIRTH-TO-KINDERGARTEN SURVIVAL RATIOS Kindergarten Number of Births Birth-to-Kindergarten Birth Year Students Spring Lake Borough Survival Ratio Five Years Later 28 20.5 0.732 2002 31 31 1.000 2003 26 22 0.846 2004 28 16 0.571 2005 18 23 1.278 2006 13 21 1.615 2007 22 16 0.727 2008 24 24 1.000 2009 12 19 1.583 2010 10 11 1.100 2011 18 N/A N/A 2012 9 N/A N/A 2013 11 N/A N/A 2014 10 N/A N/A 2015
HISTORICAL BIRTHS SPRING LAKE BOROUGH 2002-2015 40 35 31 28 28 30 26 24 25 22 18 18 20 13 15 12 11 10 10 9 10 5 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
AGE PYRAMID SPRING LAKE BOROUGH 2000 85+ Females 80-84 Males 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 Under 5 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0%
AGE PYRAMID SPRING LAKE BOROUGH 2010 85+ Females 80-84 75-79 Males 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 Under 5 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0%
AGE PYRAMID NEW JERSEY 2010 85+ 80-84 Females 75-79 Males 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 Under 5 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
CHANGE IN MALES AND FEMALES 2000 TO 2010 Males Females Age Group Numerical Percentage Numerical Percentage Change Point Change Change Point Change Under 5 -31 -0.5 -32 -0.5 5-9 -26 -0.2 -37 -0.6 10-14 -2 +0.6 -27 -0.3 15-19 +28 +1.3 +6 +0.7 20-24 -5 +0.1 +2 +0.4 25-29 -30 -0.7 -14 -0.2 30-34 -27 -0.6 -45 -1.1 35-39 -63 -1.6 -61 -1.4 40-44 -55 -1.2 -41 -0.7 45-49 -24 -0.1 -13 +0.2 50-54 +2 +0.7 -9 +0.5 55-59 -4 +0.5 -36 -0.3 60-64 +13 +1.0 +33 +1.7 65-69 +6 +0.8 -17 +0.2 70-74 -51 -1.0 -21 -0.1 75-79 +7 +0.6 +16 +1.0 80-84 +20 +0.9 0 +0.4 85+ +4 +0.3 -40 -0.8
NEW HOUSING IN SPRING LAKE BOROUGH No residential developments under construction. No residential applications before planning board. Available land is limited and community is nearly built out. Many demolitions and rebuilds on same lot.
HOMES BUILT BY DECADE SPRING LAKE BOROUGH 1200 1068 1000 800 600 400 223 171 163 200 151 131 130 75 10 0 Prior to 1940 1940-1949 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010 or later
SPRING LAKE BOROUGH HOME SALES 2001-2016 100 90 82 82 79 80 70 68 70 63 60 54 49 50 42 40 39 37 37 36 40 30 30 22 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS 200 187 190 181 177 180 164 161 160 158 160 151 149 140 120 100 CSR 3-Yr. CSR 5-Yr. 80 60 40 20 0 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 202-21 2021-22
PROJECTED KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT 10 CSR 3-yr. CSR 5-YR 5 0 0 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 -1 -5 -5 -5 -8 -10 -9 -11 -11 -15 -16 -16 -20
CAPACITY ANALYSIS Dis istri trict ct Ac Actual al Pro rojec ected ed Scho hool Practi ctice ces s Enro rollment ent Dif iffe fere rence ce Enro rollment ent Dif iffe fere rence ce Capaci acity ty 2016-17 17 2021-22 22 333 197 +136 161 +172 H.W. Mount ntz z Actual Ac al Pro rojec ected ed Ele lementar entary FES Enro rollment ent Dif iffe fere rence ce Enro rollment ent Dif iffe fere rence ce Capaci acity ty Scho hool 2016-17 17 2021-22 22 (PK-8) 8) 331 197 +134 161 +170
SUMMARY Enrollments are projected to be lower at the end of the 5-year projection period. Lower number of primary occupants in Spring Lake Older population Declining birth rate has led to fewer children entering kindergarten. Projections are based on current policy for accepting tuition students. Enrollments can change if policy is altered.
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