DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE NORTH CALDWELL PUBLIC SCHOOLS March 12, 2019
PURPOSE OF THE STUDY Update to demographic study completed in January 2017 Project grade-by-grade enrollments from 2019-20 through 2023-24 Analyze district’s historical enrollments, birth counts, home sales Determine impact of new developments on enrollment
HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS District’s 2018-19 enrollment is 676. Enrollment has been within a narrow band since 2010-11 (658-690) Cohort-Survival Ratio Method (CSR) was used to project enrollment five years into the future
HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT 2009-10 TO 2018-19 690 682 676 676 673 675 670 700 661 658 640 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
ANNUAL PK-6 ENROLLMENT CHANGE 30 21 20 17 15 14 10 7 0 0 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 -10 -12 -12 -14 -20 -30
HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS BY LEVEL 500 450 412 406 399 397 392 390 389 385 380 400 359 350 287 285 281 281 281 278 277 276 300 273 273 250 200 150 100 Gr. PK-3 Gr. 4-6 50 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD COHORT SURVIVAL RATIO Ratios are calculated for each grade progression. (Ex. 100 1 st graders in 2017- 18 become 95 2 nd graders in 2018-19 = 0.95) Survival ratios were computed for ten historical years Six of 7 average ratios were above 1.000 reflecting inward migration Averages were then computed and used to project future enrollments
BIRTHS From 2004-2017, births have ranged from 34-66 with no apparent increasing or declining trend. Births are typically used to project kindergarten students 5 years later
BIRTH RATES AND BIRTH-TO- KINDERGARTEN SURVIVAL RATIOS Kindergarten Number of Births Birth-to-Kindergarten Birth Year Students Five North Caldwell Survival Ratio Years Later 2004 55 76 1.382 2005 51 92 1.804 2006 52 93 1.788 2007 61 80 1.311 2008 45 89 1.978 2009 39 82 2.103 2010 54 86 1.593 2011 45 92 2.044 2012 40 69 1.725 2013 41 85 2.073 2014 66 N/A N/A 2015 34 N/A N/A 2016 43 N/A N/A 2017 53 N/A N/A
NORTH CALDWELL HISTORICAL BIRTHS 2004-2017 80 66 70 61 60 55 54 53 52 51 50 45 45 43 41 40 39 40 34 30 20 10 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
NEW HOUSING Number Development Housing ng T Typ ype Note tes of Uni Units Affordable Apts. To begin construction in Hillt illtop 3 3 50 10 1-BR 2019. 27 2-BR 13 3-BR Under construction Approximately four or five Detached Hillt illtop 3 3 62 COs have been issued. Ten Single-Family additional units are under construction. Under construction Kle leid idisch Detached 5 Two (2) COs have been (Mountai ain A Ave.) .) Single-Family issued. 67 Detached Single-Family To Total 50 Affordable Rental Apartments
NEW HOUSING-GBCC Green Brook Country Club (“GBCC”) could be redeveloped beginning in February 2021 if not financially viable. Would consist of up to 299 units: 160 age-restricted stacked condo or townhouse units 89-99 market-rate townhouses. The units cannot have more than three bedrooms, although the exact bedroom distribution is unknown. 50 affordable apartments with 1-3 bedrooms (half of the units would be for seniors; the remaining half would be non age-restricted) 80-130 beds for assisted living (10% of beds will be affordable)
STUDENT YIELDS Student yields from Rutgers University (2018) were used to estimate number of new children. In total, 76 children are projected. To avoid over-estimation, GBCC children are not included in enrollment projections. Hilltop 3 (SF and Apts.) – 47 Kleidisch – 2 GBCC – 24
NORTH CALDWELL HOME SALES 2001-2018 160 146 140 114 120 101 98 97 100 87 81 74 72 80 62 58 58 60 50 50 50 46 48 40 27 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS ADJUSTED FOR HOUSING GROWTH 800 724 720 717 713 711 703 704 699 687 685 700 600 500 400 300 200 CSR 5-Yr. CSR 6-Yr. 100 0 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24
PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE CONFIGURATION Historical PK-3 4-6 399 277 2018-19 PK-3 PK-3 4-6 4-6 Projected CSR 5-YR CSR 6-YR CSR 5-YR CSR 6-YR 2019-20 394 396 291 291 2020-21 400 404 299 299 2021-22 427 432 293 292 2022-23 424 431 289 286 2023-24 418 426 286 285 5-year Change +19 +27 +9 +8
CAPACITY ANALYSIS Actual l Projected Schoo hool Ca Capa pacity Enrollm llment Dif ifference Enrollm llment Dif ifference 2018-19 19 2023 2023-24 315 399 -84 426 -111 Grand Gr ndview S School (PK-3) 270 277 -7 285 -15 Go Gould S Scho hool (4-6) 6)
SUMMARY Enrollments are projected to be higher at the end of the 5-year projection period, primarily due to new housing. Enrollment could increase further at end of projection period if GBCC is redeveloped.
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