DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE CLINTON TOWNSHIP SCHOOL DISTRICT October 27, 2014
STATISTICAL FORECASTING ¡ Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area. ¡ Performed demographic studies for approximately 100 school districts in NY & NJ. ¡ Demographic consultant for the NYC Public Schools since 2006.
RICHARD S. GRIP ED.D. ¡ Executive Director ¡ Doctorate from Rutgers University Graduate School of Education in Educational Statistics and Measurement ¡ Numerous publications on school demography and presentations nationally ¡ Testified as an expert witness in school demography in several Administrative Law court hearings.
PURPOSE OF THE STUDY q Project grade-by-grade enrollments from 2014-15 through 2018-19 q Analyze district historical enrollments, birth and fertility rates, community population trends, and age structure q Impact of new developments on enrollment q Project enrollments for existing half-day kindergarten program as well as expanding to full-day q Perform housing turnover analysis and project its impact on future enrollment trends
CLINTON TOWNSHIP HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS 1940-2040 14,961 14,000 14,430 13,975 13,478 12,957 12,000 10,816 10,000 8,000 7,345 6,000 Historical Projected 5,119 4,000 3,770 2,926 2,000 2,349 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
CLINTON TOWNSHIP DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE q 86.4% White, 6.0% Black/African American, 5.6% Hispanic q 24.1% of population is under 18 q Median age = 40.9 years q 8% of population is foreign-born. NJ=21%. q Bachelor’s Degree or Higher = 53.2% q Median family income = $152,250 q 4,737 housing units, of which 83% are 1-unit homes (attached or detached) q 13.1% of housing units are renter-occupied q Median value of owner-occupied unit = $460,500
SCHOOL LOCATIONS
HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS q District’s October 2013 enrollment was 1,562. q Enrollment peaked in 2005-06 with 1,818 students but has declined for 8 consecutive years. q Loss of 256 students since peak. q Cohort-Survival Ratio Method (CSR) was used to project enrollment five years into the future.
HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT 2004-05 TO 2013-14 2,000.0 1,818 1,805 1,774 1,760.5 1,752 1,800.0 1,709 1,664 1,600 1,595 1,562 1,600.0 1,400.0 1,200.0 1,000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0.0 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT BY LEVEL 700 650 613 612 605 605 596 581 600 555 553 548 544 550 500 464 458 458 457 445 444 445 430 428 428 450 400 393 383 382 400 358 340 384 333 350 360 351 338 344.5 303 301 297 326 300 311 293 291 282 250 Gr. PK-1 Gr. 2-3 Gr. 4-6 Gr. 7-8 200 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14
ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD COHORT SURVIVAL RATIO q Ratios are calculated for each grade progression. (Ex. 100 1 st graders in 2012-13 become 95 2 nd graders in 2013-14 = 0.95) q Survival ratios were computed for ten historical years. Seven of 9 average ratios above 1.000. q Averages were then computed and used to project future enrollments.
FIRST GRADE REPLACEMENT q Negative first grade replacement (FGR) has occurred for past 9 years. q Negative FGR- Number of graduating 8 th grade students is greater than the number of 1 st grade students replacing them in the next year. q Negative FGR was 86 students in 2013-14. 229 8 th graders graduated in 2012-13 and replaced by 143 1 st graders in 2013-14.
HISTORICAL FIRST GRADE REPLACEMENT 0 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 -20 -26 -40 -44 Number of Students -60 -56 -68 -80 -80 -86 -95 -100 -96 -96 -120
TOTAL ENROLLMENT CHANGE VS. FIRST GRADE REPLACEMENT 80 58 60 First Grade Replacement Enrollment Change 40 20 Number of Students 0 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 -5 -20 -13 -22 -26 -31 -40 -33 -43 -44 -45 -60 -56 -64 -68 -80 -80 -86 -100 -95 -96 -96 -120
BIRTHS q Births in Clinton Twp. have been declining: high of 156 in 1999, low of 82 in 2010. q Births are used to project kindergarten students 5 years later. q Fertility rates in Clinton Twp. are lower than Hunterdon County and NJ.
BIRTH RATES AND BIRTH-TO- KINDERGARTEN SURVIVAL RATIOS Number of Births Kindergarten Students Birth-to-Kindergarten Birth Year Five Years Later Survival Ratio 1999 156 142 0.910 2000 121 156 1.289 2001 129 120 0.930 2002 151 147 0.974 2003 130 137 1.054 2004 118 125 1.059 2005 117 117 1.000 2006 131 101 0.771 2007 97 112 1.155 2008 109 93 0.853 2009 105 N/A N/A 2010 82 N/A N/A 2011 89 N/A N/A 2012 92 N/A N/A 2013 92 N/A N/A
HISTORICAL BIRTHS 1999-2011 180 156 160 151 140 131 130 129 121 118 117 120 109 105 Number of Births 97 100 89 82 80 60 40 20 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
AGE PYRAMID - CLINTON TOWNSHIP 2000 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 Females Males 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 Age Classes 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 Under 5 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0%
AGE PYRAMID - CLINTON TOWNSHIP 2010 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 Females Males 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 Age Classes 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 Under 5 9.0% 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0%
AGE PYRAMID - NEW JERSEY 2010 85+ 80-84 Females 75-79 Males 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 Under 5 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
NEW HOUSING ¡ 70 new housing units (53 detached SF); 66 are market-rate ¡ Potential for 65 affordable units to be built by 2017 or 2018 ¡ Another 130 affordable units could be built by 2025. ¡ Little information was available on the type of units to be built or bedroom distribution.
POTENTIAL NEW CHILDREN Number De Developme lopment nt Number o of C Chi hildren K K-8 of U Units Headley F Farm E Estates 21 14 Hidden M Meadows 5 3 Fa Fairwin F Farms 1 1 Ha Hale 2 1 Springho house E Estates 4 3 Longview M Manor 15 10 Payne F Farms 5 3 Meurer D Development 17 4 COAH AH u units, 2 2015-2018 65 29 COAH AH u units 2 2019-2025 130 60 68 children 2014-2018 To Total 60 children 2019-2025
HOUSING DISTRIBUTION 1353 1400 1200 1000 840 Number of Homes 790 800 600 421 417 385 400 327 200 109 0 0 Prior to 1940-1949 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010- 1940 Present
BASELINE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS HALF-DAY KINDERGARTEN 1,600 1,516 1,484 1,500 1,456 1,419 1,379 1,364 1,400 1,335 1,314 1,280 1,200 1,000 800 CSR 4-Yr. CSR 6-Yr. 600 400 200 0 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
BASELINE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FULL-DAY KINDERGARTEN 1,546 1,600 1,521 1,515 1,476 1,457 1,409 1,404 1,388 1,344 1,400 1,315 1,200 1,000 800 CSR 4-Yr. CSR 6-Yr. 600 400 200 0 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS HALF-DAY KINDERGARTEN 1,600 1,526 1,510 1,504 1,476 1,448 1,408 1,405 1,386 1,355 1,400 1,331 1,200 1,000 800 600 CSR 4-Yr. CSR 6-Yr. 400 200 0 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
ADJUSTED ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS FULL-DAY KINDERGARTEN 1,556 1,600 1,535 1,531 1,496 1,486 1,450 1,439 1,433 1,385 1,366 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 CSR 4-Yr. CSR 6-Yr. 400 200 0 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
ENROLLMENT BY GRADE CONFIGURATION PK-1 2-3 4-6 7-8 297 291 544 430 2013-14 CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR CSR 4-YR 4-YR 6-YR 4-YR 6-YR 4-YR 6-YR 4-YR 6-YR 4-YR 6-YR 4-YR 6-YR 4-YR 6-YR 6-YR PROJECTED Half- Full- Full- Half- Half- Full- Full- Half- Half- Full- Full- Half- Half- Full- Full- Half- Day K Day K Day K Day K Day K Day K Day K Day K Day K Day K Day K Day K Day K Day K Day K Day K 2014-15 281 277 311 298 302 301 302 301 517 509 517 509 426 423 426 423 2015-16 267 268 298 288 283 274 283 274 503 489 503 489 451 445 451 445 2016-17 249 250 280 271 265 252 272 256 516 501 516 501 418 405 418 405 2017-18 259 259 291 282 247 242 260 249 505 479 505 479 394 375 394 375 2018-19 262 261 293 285 226 221 239 228 492 464 501 468 406 385 406 385
CAPACITY ANALYSIS 20 2018- 8-19 19 2018- 20 8-19 19 Half-Da Ha f-Day y Fu Full-Day Scho hool Ca Capaci city ty 20 2013- 3-14 Dif Diff. f. Dif Diff. f. Diff. Dif f. Kind. Kind. Kind. Kind. Spruce R Run 400 297 +103 262 +138 293 +107 (PK (PK-1) 1) Pa Patrick McGahe heran 548 291 +257 226 +322 239 +309 (2-3) (2- 3) Round V Valley 639 544 +95 492 +147 501 +138 (4-6) (4- 6) Cl Clinton on Townshi hip 595 430 +165 406 +189 406 +189 Middle Middle Scho hool ( (7-8)
HOUSING TURNOVER ANALYSIS Completely independent analysis using houses, not students, to project enrollment. Should not be used for yearly enrollment projections. Use those from CSR. Three inputs: 1. Housing turnover rates by length of ownership 2. Current distribution of homes by length of ownership 3. Student yields by length of ownership
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