Demographic Picture of Turkey: What lies ahead? A.Banu Ergmen, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Demographic Picture of Turkey: What lies ahead? A.Banu Ergöçmen, Prof.Dr. bergocme@hacettepe.edu.tr Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies Panel Discussion on the Demography of Turkey and other Muslim Countries 11 May 2015, Ankara 1 / x

per 1,000 population 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 0,0 Demographic Transition, Turkey 1935-40 1940-45 1945-50 1950-55 1955-60 1960-65 1965-70 1970-75 1975-80 1980-85 1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-10 CBR 2010-15 2015-20 2020-25 CDR 2025-30 2030-35

Total Fertility Rate 5,0 4,5 4,33 4,04 4,0 3,5 3,02 3,0 2,65 2,61 2,5 2,26 2,23 2,16 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 TFS 1978 TPHS 1983 TPHS 1988 TDHS 1993 TDHS 1998 TDHS 2003 TDHS 2008 TDHS 2013

Total Fertility Rate : Regions North 2.08 Central East West 1.89 3.41 1.93 2.48 South TURKEY 2.26 Urban: 2.16 Rural: 2.73

Variations in TFRs: Regions 1993-2013 5

Total Fertility Rate by Women’s Education 4,0 3,76 3,5 3,0 2,75 2,45 2,5 2,0 1,66 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 No Primary school Secondary school High school and education/primary higher incomplete

Age Specific Fertility Rates 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 TFS 1978 TPHS 1988 TDHS 1993 TDHS 1998 TDHS 2003 TDHS 2008 TDHS 2013

Median Age at Marriage and Birth (ages 25-49) 25,0 22,9 22,3 21,8 21,3 21,0 20,8 20,8 20,0 19,5 19,0 20,0 15,0 10,0 5,0 0,0 TDHS 1993 TDHS 1998 TDHS 2003 TDHS 2008 TDHS 2013 Age at first marriage Age at first birth Among women: 7 % of 15-19 year olds, 73 % of 15-49 year olds and 97 %of 45-49 have been married.

Fertility Preferences, 2003-2013 Declared infecund 3,1 Have another Missing 0,3 later 13,6 Have another soon 9,9 Have another, Sterilized 5,7 undecided when 0,9 TNSA- TNSA- Have 2003 2008 TDHS-2003 Missing 0,1 another later Undecided Have Declared 18,1 3,1 another infecund 6,5 soon 13,7 Sterilized 9,4 Want no more 63,4 TDHS-2013 TNSA- TNSA- 2013 Want no 2013 Have more 47,4 Undecided another, 3,4 undecided when 1,4

Changes in Early Age Mortality Rates, 1993-2013 70 61 60 53 52 50 43 40 37 29 30 24 18 20 15 13 10 9 9 10 6 2 0 Infant mortality rate Child mortality rate Under five mortality rate TDHS 1993 TDHS 1998 TDHS 2003 TDHS 2008 TDHS 2013

Changes in Life Expectancy 2014-2050 88,0 85,4 86,0 84,0 83 82,0 80,5 80,2 79,3 80,0 77,9 78,0 77,0 75,8 76,0 74,8 74,0 72,0 70,0 68,0 2014 TURKSTAT 2023 TURKSTAT 2050 UN Total Males Females

Population Pyramid of Turkey, 2014-2050 (Shadow: 2014, Line: 2050) 85+ 80-84 Male Female 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 Percent Source: TURKSTAT 12 / x

Population by major age groups Trends of major age groups Population 65+ Median age for 2014 is 30.7 years 13

65+ Population by sex, 2014-2050 65+ Total pop Total Male Female 2014 77 696 6 193 2 699 3 494 2023 84 247 8 624 3 831 4 793 2050 93 476 19 485 8 814 10 670 (thousand)

Dependency ratios 15 / 39

Key demographic indicators, 2050 Population 93 475 570 Population growth rate(%) 0.2 Median age 40.2 Population by age groups (%) <15 15.7 15-64 63.4 65+ 20.8 Total fertility rate 1.8 Expectation of life Total 83.0 Male 80.5 Female 85.4 Dependency ratios (%) Total 57.6 Child 24.8 Elderly 32.9 16 / 39

Demographic snapshots...  Population, almost at the end of its first demographic transition, stands at a total size of more than 77 million  Population growth rate has slowed down (1.33 %)  People are living longer (e 0 77)  Half of the population is below age 30.7; Turkey has a young population by median age, largely due to past fertility rates  Turkey still has a young age structure

... Demographic snapshots  Fertility is above the replacement level (>2.1)  Fertility varies by region, type of place of residence, education and wealth quantile.  Transition has not been uniform throughout the country, regional disparities continue.  Share of 65+ aged population is 8 percent.  Current trends in major demographic parameters show that the country is about to reach or close to the final stage of its first demographic transition, however, process has not been completed yet.

Future prospects  The current young population group, growing share of the economically productive age population and the population which is expected to become much older toward the final stage of transition are the facts that require a holistic approach and a combination of policies.  Future population growth will take place in the urban areas.  Population ageing will become more critical  Migration is expected to remain high during the 21st century.

To conclude… It is the tendency of the young cohorts that will determine the course of demographic change in Turkey in the approaching decades. Therefore, this young population structure of Turkey presents potential challenges in every aspect of the country.

References • TFS 1978 : Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1980). Turkish Fertility Survey 1978. First Report, Volume I: Methodology and Findings, Hacettepe University, Institute of Population Studies, Ankara. • TPHS 1983 : Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1987) 1983 Turkish Population and Health Survey, Hacettepe University, Institute of Population Studies, Ankara. • TPHS 1988 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1989) 1988 Turkish Population and Health Survey, Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ankara. • TDHS 1993 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1994). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 1993 . Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ministry of Health Directorate of Morther and Child Health, Demographic and Health Surveys, Macro International Int. • TDHS 1998 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (1999). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 1998 . Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Macro International Inc., Ministry of Health Directorate of Mother and Child Health, United Nations Population Fund, United States Agency for International Development. • TDHS 2003 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (2005). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 2003 . Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ministry of Health Directorate of Mother and Child Health, T.R Prime Ministry State Organization of Planning, European Union. • TDHS 2008 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (2009). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 2008 . Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ministry of Health Directorate of Mother and Child Health and Family Planning, State Planning Organization. • TDHS 2013 Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies (2014). Turkey Demographic and Health Survey 2013 . Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ministry of Development. • TURKSTAT (2015) Nüfus Projeksiyonları, Demografik Göstergeler (Population projections, demographic indicators), http://tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=1636 last accessed: 21 May 2015 • TURKSTAT (2015) Nüfus Projeksiyonları, Yaş ve Cinsiyete Göre Nüfus (Population projections, population by age and sex), http://tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=1633 last accessed: 21 May 2015 • TURKSTAT (2015) Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi Sonuçları (Results of the Address Bases Population Registration System) http://tuikapp.tuik.gov.tr/adnksdagitapp/adnks.zul last accessed: 21 May 2015 • TURKSTAT (2015) Adrese Dayalı Nüfus Kayıt Sistemi Sonuçları, Yıllara, Yaş Grubu ve Cinsiyete Göre Nüfus, Genel Nüfus Sayımları, ADNKS (Results of the Address Bases Population Registration System, population by year, age groups and sex, Population Censuses and ABPRS) http://tuik.gov.tr/PreIstatistikTablo.do?istab_id=1588 last accessed: 21 May 2015 • UN (2015) World Population Prospects, 2015, Excel Tables, Mortality Data. http://esa.un.org/wpp/Excel-Data/mortality.htm last accessed: 21 May 2015