Census 2011 KCP Steering Group presentation Tuesday 28th May, 2013 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Census 2011 KCP Steering Group presentation Tuesday 28th May, 2013 Dominic Baker Research and Insight Officer Consultation and Partnerships Team Policy and Partnerships Unit

Census collects data on... Ethnicity The labour market Religion Main language spoken Tenure Proficiency in English Population count Health Marital status Qualifications Car or van availability Household composition Country of birth Age structure

But not..... ... income OR crime Other local or national datasets contain such data Composite indices bring datasets together – notably the Index of Multiple Deprivation Examples of IMD data sources - Income Support families - Claimants of Incapacity Benefit - Comparative Illness and Disability Ratio - Proportion of young people not staying on in school - Difficulty of access to owner-occupation - Violence – number of reported violent crimes - Social and private housing in poor condition - Road distance to a GP surgery

How accurate is Census data?

Predicting areas of low response – The Hard to Count Index Urban areas are the hardest to count, especially London, Birmingham and the northern conurbations In London the hardest to count areas were clustered in inner London

Hard to count even by London standards Kensington and Chelsea not 95.1 per cent of the borough ranked quite as “hard to count” as in the hardest to count category compared Westminster! to 12.6 per cent in London

Better data than last time More thorough planning and additional resources meant response rate increased from 64 per cent to 82 per cent ONS “impute” the characteristics of the “missing” 18 per cent A higher response rate reduces the need for such “intelligent guesswork” Population figures for the borough, wards, and smaller areas, all include “intelligent guesses” about non -responders So the census is by no means 100% accurate but it is difficult to improve upon it

Has the population of the Royal Borough decreased since 2001?

Decrease in London by ward 8 of these wards Only 25 wards in London were in Kensington showed an intercensal and Chelsea population decrease 7 of the 10 greatest decreases were in Kensington and Chelsea

Possible explanations Short-term residents (broadly those staying for less than 6 months – some 3,800 people) are excluded More properties may be vacant e.g. because international property buyers. Our basis for comparison – the 2001 census – may simply be too inaccurate Approximate location of Kensington and Chelsea We may have fewer households (e.g. because of deconversions – though planning data suggests otherwise) There may be fewer people in each household There is no clear answer and further analysis is needed

Are there more empty homes? 2,846 additional “empty” households * Not directly comparable BUT does show an increase in the majority of wards *using datasets identified by the ONS as broadly comparable

2011 data - Households with no usual residents: There is a clear hotspot in central London Significant chunks of Brompton and Hans Town have more than one in five households are vacant

How has the age profile of the Royal Borough changed? Population pyramids by 5 year age band show no striking demographic shift 2001 2011 Little change in the broad age groups

Compared to London and England and Wales Proportionally Kensington and Chelsea has: - fewer residents aged less than 20 - more residents aged between 25-39

How diverse is the Royal Borough?

Simpson’s Diversity Index Kensington and Chelsea: Simpson’s Diversity Index: • The Simpson’s Diversity Index shows that Kensington This intercensal measure looks at the distribution and Chelsea, much like the vast majority of London, of the population between 10 ethnic groups. If has become more diverse between 2001 to 2011 the population falls into one group the ward is • In 2011 Kensington and Chelsea is ranked the 19 th given a score of 1 if the population is split equally most diverse borough in England and Wales (out of into 10 groups the ward is given a score of 10. 348)

A diverse population... • Christian residents have decreased by 8% to 54 per cent. • Muslim population has grown by 1.6 per cent to 10 per cent • Those with no religion has increased by 5.3 per cent to 20.6 per cent • 52 per cent of residents not born in the UK • White group has decreased from 78.6 per cent to 70.6 per cent. • The Asian/Asian British groups has increased by 5.1 per cent to 10 per cent • In 21 per cent of households no residents speak English as their main language • 61 per cent of residents have a UK passport • Couples from 12 per cent of households are made up of more than one ethnicity • 18 per cent of residents arrived in the UK in the five years preceding the Census • 1,001 residents in a civil partnership • 38 per cent of residents gave a non British national identity

Ethnicity – focus on White British Total % % change Ethnicity broad groups 85.9 78.6 70.6 RBKC 2001 RBKC 2011 London 2011 England and Wales 2011 59.8 18.4 13.3 10 7.5 7.0 7.2 6.6 5.7 5.5 5 4.9 4.1 3.4 3.4 2.2 1 Source: ONS White Mixed Asian/Asian British Black/Black British Other ethnic group

Born in the UK UK Born 85 and over Male 75 to 84 Female 65 to 74 50 to 64 35 to 49 25 to 34 16 to 24 0 to 15 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 Population (%) Born outside the UK 85 and over Male 75 to 84 Female 65 to 74 50 to 64 35 to 49 25 to 34 16 to 24 0 to 15 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 Population (%)

National identity Per cent ‘other’ (i.e. non-UK) identities

Ethnicity by national identity Age by national identity 85 and over 87.8% 12.2% WHITE TOTAL 60.6% 3.6% 35.8% 80 to 84 White: UK 85.4% 14.6% 93.5% 2.3% 4.3% 75 to 79 White: Irish 84.0% 16.0% 87.6% 0.6% 11.8% White: Gypsy/Irish Traveller 70 to 74 75.6% 1.7% 22.7% 81.0% 19.0% White: Other White 13.8% 5.7% 80.6% 65 to 69 79.2% 20.8% MIXED TOTAL 67.4% 4.8% 27.8% 60 to 64 76.8% 23.2% Mixed: White and Black Caribbean 87.0% 1.9% 11.1% 55 to 59 73.6% 26.4% Mixed: White and Black African 71.3% 3.9% 24.8% 50 to 54 71.0% 29.0% Mixed: White and Asian 61.2% 6.2% 32.5% 45 to 49 65.9% 34.1% Mixed: Other Mixed 61.3% 5.4% 33.3% 40 to 44 57.5% 42.5% ASIAN TOTAL 43.8% 4.0% 52.2% 35 to 39 50.0% 50.0% Asian: Indian 61.0% 3.0% 36.0% 30 to 34 47.2% 52.8% Asian: Pakistani 73.3% 4.0% 22.7% 25 to 29 53.0% 47.0% Asian: Bangladeshi 79.3% 2.9% 17.8% 20 to 24 55.9% 44.1% Asian: Chinese 31.8% 3.6% 64.6% 18 to 19 68.5% 31.5% Asian: Other Asian 36.8% 4.6% 58.6% 16 to 17 78.0% 22.0% BLACK TOTAL 77.0% 3.3% 19.7% 15 77.3% 22.7% Black: African 71.5% 3.4% 25.1% 10 to 14 73.9% 26.1% Black: Caribbean 86.9% 1.9% 11.2% 8 to 9 73.7% 26.3% Black: Other Black 75.5% 6.3% 18.2% 5 to 7 71.8% 28.2% OTHER TOTAL 56.9% 5.6% 37.5% 0 to 4 69.2% 30.8% Other: Arab 57.6% 5.3% 37.1% All Ages 63.9% 36.1% Other: Other 56.1% 6.0% 37.9% UK Identities Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% UK/Irish Only Other identity and at least one UK identity OTHER WHITE Other Identity NOT AN INSIGNIFICANT GROUP = 32,279 residents

Per cent households with no occupants Main language wordcloud speaking English as a main language

Proficiency in English

85 and over 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 Speaks English well or very well 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 20 to 24 15 to 19 Females RBKC Females GLA Males RBKC Males GLA 10 to 14 5 to 9 3 to 4 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 100%

Muslim change: 2001-2011 Christian change: 2001-2011

Religion: Population Pyramids Christian: 86,005 residents No religion: 32,669 residents Muslim: 15,812 residents Male: 46.5% l Female: 53.5% Male: 55.7% l Female: 44.3% Male: 50.8% l Female: 49.2% 85+ 85+ 85+ 80 to 84 80 to 84 80 to 84 Male Male Male 75 to 79 75 to 79 75 to 79 Female Female Female 70 to 74 70 to 74 70 to 74 65 to 69 65 to 69 65 to 69 60 to 64 60 to 64 60 to 64 55 to 59 55 to 59 55 to 59 50 to 54 50 to 54 50 to 54 45 to 49 45 to 49 45 to 49 40 to 44 40 to 44 40 to 44 35 to 39 35 to 39 35 to 39 30 to 34 30 to 34 30 to 34 25 to 29 25 to 29 25 to 29 20 to 24 20 to 24 20 to 24 15 -19 15 to 19 15 to 19 10 to 14 10 to 14 10 to 14 5 to 9 5 to 9 5 to 9 0 to 4 0 to 4 0 to 4 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 Population (%) Population (%) Population (%) Jewish: 3,320 residents Hindu: 1,386 residents Buddhist: 2,447 residents Male: 52.1% l Female: 47.9% Male: 52.9% l Female: 47.1% Male: 42.9% l Female: 57.1% 85+ 85+ 85+ 80 to 84 80 to 84 80 to 84 Male Male Male 75 to 79 75 to 79 75 to 79 Female Female Female 70 to 74 70 to 74 70 to 74 65 to 69 65 to 69 65 to 69 60 to 64 60 to 64 60 to 64 55 to 59 55 to 59 55 to 59 50 to 54 50 to 54 50 to 54 45 to 49 45 to 49 45 to 49 40 to 44 40 to 44 40 to 44 35 to 39 35 to 39 35 to 39 30 to 34 30 to 34 30 to 34 25 to 29 25 to 29 25 to 29 20 to 24 20 to 24 20 to 24 15 -19 15 to 19 15 -19 10 to 14 10 to 14 10 to 14 5 to 9 5 to 9 5 to 9 0 to 4 0 to 4 0 to 4 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 Population (%) Population (%) Population (%)