Demographic Alvin Independent Update School Spring 2016 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Demographic Alvin Independent Update School Spring 2016 District Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow

Economic Conditions – Houston MSA 0.6% 20,700 new jobs Unemployment Annualized 109 more in 2015 than 2014 Rate Home Starts National rate 1.9% 27,899 new Job Growth U.S. 5.3% homes started in Texas 4.4% 2015, 2,426 less Houston MSA 4.8% than 2014 Alvin 4.8% 2,426 -0.2% Sources: Texas Workforce Commission & Metrostudy 2

Houston Economic Overview A Cooling in the Oil Boom • Oil prices finished 2015 with a December 2015 average of $38 per barrel • Market analysts are expecting oil prices to average $40 per barrel for 2016 as global supply builds and several major global economies experience an economic slowing • The U.S. crude oil production is at its highest rates in three decades • Houston ended 2015 with three straight months of near 10% year over year declines in home sales • The Houston housing market is expected to cool through 2016, with homes staying on the market longer • Houston home inventory was 3.2 months’ supply in December 2015, still well below the 3 national rate of 5.1 months, and a “balanced market” of 6 months’ supply

Brazoria County Economic Overview • Brazoria County sees gains even as South and West Texas counties slow with the oil price drop • Brazoria County’s refineries and petrochemical plans are booming with the cheaper natural gas prices, construction activity is on the rise • Currently $20.5 billion is being invested in petrochemical plants along the Gulf Coast, with the majority set to come online in 2017 • The county had 18.8% year over year rise in single family permits in the end of 2015 • County sales tax receipts rose more than 18% for the same time period • The City of Alvin had $24 million in new commercial permits in 2015, adding stores such as Chicken Express, Planet Fitness, Burger King and an expansion at Amoco Federal Credit Union • Alvin currently has the $1.2 billion C3 Petrocehmical plant project underway, set to come online in 2017 for propane dehydration 4

Local Economic Update Grand Parkway- Section B • Section B is a 28-mile stretch of the proposed Grand Parkway from I-45 to SH 35 in Alvin then through to SH 288 near Rosharon • The roadway would run along the southern border of Clear Creek ISD, just south of Westover Park and Magnolia Creek • Currently in design stages, ROW acquisition could begin in 2016 • Construction could start in 2017, with the roadway opening to traffic in 2020 • The Grand Parkway could spur residential and commercial development 5 within Alvin ISD

Houston New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 4Q15 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future 1 Fort Bend ISD 3,510 3,398 3,601 13,821 2 Katy ISD 2,742 3,000 3,442 13,095 3 Houston ISD 2,198 2,855 2,145 12,104 4 Cypress ‐ Fairbanks ISD 2,375 2,385 4,130 9,491 5 Lamar CISD 2,522 2,294 4,060 14,514 6 Conroe ISD 2,076 1,930 3,877 11,405 7 Klein ISD 1,494 1,591 2,211 2,839 8 Humble ISD 1,111 1,144 1,524 9,594 9 Tomball ISD 996 1,057 2,214 3,722 10 Alvin ISD 1,052 975 2,011 11,820* 11 Clear Creek ISD 882 753 1,286 1,968 12 New Caney ISD 622 698 562 5,721 13 Aldine ISD 572 689 805 1,853 14 Spring ISD 451 426 769 1,934 15 Goose Creek ISD 428 420 464 793 16 Montgomery ISD 327 379 771 2,896 17 Dickinson ISD 392 376 538 977 18 Magnolia ISD 376 356 483 4,697 19 Pearland ISD 421 352 325 329 20 Sheldon ISD 375 343 399 2,281 *Adjusted based on additional research by Templeton Demographics staff 6 (Added Sierra Vista 1,000 lots; Sterling Lakes West 569 lots; Newport Lake Estates 199 lots)

New Housing Activity 700 Starts Closings Inventory 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Starts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Closings 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q 182 136 195 143 205 231 1Q 145 116 178 178 156 211 2Q 165 186 204 186 233 300 2Q 163 189 200 168 232 275 3Q 196 181 204 174 252 249 3Q 211 199 193 158 188 248 4Q 147 172 151 163 224 257 4Q 163 203 182 155 226 227 Total 690 675 754 666 914 1,037 Total 682 707 753 659 802 961 • Alvin ISD had more than 1,000 new home starts in 2015, nearly double the number of starts in 2009, and a 13% rise over 2014 • District new home closings are up nearly 20% over 2014 • While Houston MSA new home starts and closings have slowed, Alvin ISD continues to have strong new home demand 7

Annual Closings 4Q15 Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Annual Quarter Rank Subdivision Closings Closings VDL 1 Sterling Lakes 148 28 86 2 Savannah 145 30 175 3 Southlake 139 40 165 4 Southern Trails 105 17 152 5 Lakeland 89 13 0 6 Rodeo Palms 78 20 257 7 Sedona Lakes 78 17 178 8 Kendall Lakes 46 29 51 9 North Pointe Trails 32 7 0 10 Forest Heights 28 12 12 TOTALS 888 213 1,076 8

Vacant Developed Lots 4Q15 Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Annual Rank Subdivision Closings VDL Future 1 Meridiana 0 441 5,061 2 Rodeo Palms 78 257 202 3 Pomona (Duke) 0 257 770 4 Sedona Lakes 78 178 219 6 Savannah 145 175 1,297 5 Southlake 139 165 147 8 Southern Trails 105 152 0 7 Savannah Plantation 6 106 45 9 Sterling Lakes 148 86 0 10 Palm Crest 6 60 0 TOTALS 705 1,877 7,644 9

Future Lots 4Q15 Top 10 Subdivisions ‐ 4Q15 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Meridiana 441 5,061 2 Savannah 175 1,297 3 Sierra Vista 0 893 4 Pomona (Duke) 257 770 5 Pomona (Jeter) 0 680 6 Martha's Vineyard 0 472 7 Lakeland 0 458 8 Morgan's Landing 2 324 9 Bluewater Lakes on Manvel 0 312 10 Forest Heights 12 236 TOTALS 887 10,503 10

Overall Housing Data By Elementary Attendance Zone 2016/17 ELEMENTARY Annual Quarter Annual Quarter Under Inventory Vacant Future ATTENDANCE ZONE Starts Starts Closings Closings Const. Dev. Lots ALVIN PRIMARY/ALVIN ELEMENTARY 27 0 28 1 4 9 111 45 DUKE 155 60 112 17 100 124 411 770 HASSE 13 3 20 6 4 9 2 178 HOOD ‐ CASE 37 10 28 12 14 19 12 708 JETER 81 35 78 20 50 60 257 1,081 MAREK 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MASON 134 31 167 30 41 72 178 989 MERIDIANA 192 39 170 35 77 119 592 6,061 PASSMORE 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 18 SAVANNAH LAKES 163 32 145 30 150 174 175 1,200 STEVENSON/DISNEY 11 0 10 0 3 3 42 324 TWAIN 89 17 78 36 16 28 51 103 WILDER 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 YORK 150 30 139 40 35 63 165 246 Grand Total 1,052 257 975 227 494 680 2,011 11,723 Highest activity in the category Second highest activity in the category Third highest activity in the category 11

Housing Activity Overview • Alvin ISD has 2,011 lots available to build on • The district has 11,820 future planned homes 12

Active Single-Family Housing Activity ^ _ MANVEL JH MASON S T H Y « ¬ 6 « ¬ 288 6 ^ _ MANVEL HIGH MERIDIANA Meridiana • 5,504 total lots • 237 VDL • Started two homes in January 2016 • Sections 3 & 7 with 115 lots were approved in January 2016 • Anticipate building 200 in 2016 • Meridiana Elementary MERIDIANA ELEM « ¬ _ ^ 288 13

Active Single-Family Housing Activity DUKE ^ _ Pomona ELEM • Future MF: starting in 4-5 years, 25 acres for MF, 22 acres for Townhomes (approx. 150-180 units) • Total SF= 1,752 lots • Duke = 1,072 lots DUKE • Jeter = 680 lots YORK • 257 VDL • Anticipate building 190 in 2016 • Split between Duke Elementary and _ ^ 18 ELEM Jeter Elementary MASON JETER ELEM JETER _ ^ SAVANNAH LAKES RODEO PALMS JH _ ^ 14

Future Single-Family Housing Activity MASON Sierra Vista • 893 total lots • Anticipate phase 1 with 242 lots delivering 3 rd quarter of 2017 « ¬ • First homes occupied late 2017 288 • Anticipating 180 homes built per year • Meridiana Elementary MERIDIANA ^ _ ELEM MERIDIANA « ¬ 288 15

Future Subdivision Highland Resources Development STEVENSON PRIM ¬ « 35 ^ _ _ ^ G R A N DISNEY ELEM D P A R K WAY MERIDIANA ALVIN/ALVIN Future Housing Development • 5,440 Acres • Total lot count unknown at this time • Developer = Highland Resources Development • Developer has no development plans at this time • Split between Alvin, Angleton, and Danbury ISDs • MUD development agreement approved by city GRA N D Y W A P A R K • Stevenson/Disney Elementary STEVENSON/DISNEY « ¬ 35 16

Multi-Family Activity Broadstone Shadow Creek Ranch • 382 Units • Construction Completion Summer 2016 • First units currently leasing Broadstone • Wilder Elementary Shadow Creek Ranch 34 FM 2 2 WILDER Avion Shadow Creek Ranch MAREK Avion Shadow Creek Ranch WILDER ELEM • 276 Units ^ _ • Construction Completion April 2016 • First units currently leasing • Wilder Elementary 17

2015-16 Apartment Yield Analysis 2014 ‐ 15 2015 ‐ 16 Change Units 5,374 5,374* 0 Students 1,515 1,584 69 Yield 0.28 0.29 0.01 *Based on the same 31 apartment complexes present in 2014 ‐ 15 and 2015 ‐ 16. New complexes were not considered in this comparison 18

2015-16 Apartment Yield By Year Built 19