CRP 566 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION Dave Swenson Department - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

CRP 566 DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS INTRODUCTION Dave Swenson Department of Economics College of Agriculture and Life Sciences Iowa State University

OBJECTIVES • Understanding of the role of demographic analysis and information for private, government, and broad community uses • How demographic data are collected and compiled • The types of information that help put basic demographics into perspective

WHAT DO WE USE DEMOGRAPHIC DATA FOR? • Constitution: Article 1,Clause 3: Apportionment of Representatives and taxes • Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States … according to their respective Numbers, …. • The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.

WHAT DO WE USE DEMOGRAPHIC DATA FOR? • Track social and economic change or progress • Allocate public resources and plan for the future • Important component of all social science: • Demography is the statistical study of human populations and sub- populations. It involves the study of the size, structure, and distribution of these populations, and spatial and/or temporal changes in them in response to birth, migration, aging and death.

WE ARE, HOWEVER, INTERESTED IN MUCH MORE • We also want to know about a population’s circumstances. Their … • Economic well-being and sources of income • Ethnic or cultural characteristics (not religion) • Nativity • The characteristics of their housing • How they get to work • How they get along • These types of data are collected using survey information

HOW DEMOGRAPHIC DATA ARE COLLECTED • U.S. Census Bureau • The Census: Decennial count (SF 1) is mostly limited to age, sex, characteristics of households and families, race, Hispanic origin. It’s first use is in the apportionment of U.S. representatives, as well as our state and local legislative districts. • American Community Survey. A rolling and continuous survey of the U.S. population that allows conclusions about the population, either using 5, 3, or one year averages

CONTINUED • The Current Population Survey (CPS), sponsored jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS): • is the primary source of labor force statistics for the population of the United States. • is the source of numerous higher-profile economic statistics, including the national unemployment rate • provides data on a wide range of issues relating to employment and earnings. • collects extensive demographic data that complement and enhance our understanding of labor market conditions in the nation overall, among many different population groups, in the states and in substate areas.

OTHERS -- SURVEYS • Universities – General Social Surveys at the University of Michigan Social Research Center. • Universities – the Iowa Farm Life Poll • Gallup, Roper, Pew and other long-term pollsters • Private firms, especially marketers, special interest groups, and political organizations • State and local governments to fill information gaps or to deal with extra-ordinary circumstances – local school districts often conduct special surveys

PUTTING DEMOGRAPHIC DATA INTO PERSPECTIVE • Population characteristics • Age, sex, race, ethnicity, income, nativity, household composition, mobility, education, workforce participation • More detailed understanding of the composition of households and families • Income • Marital status • Presence and age of children • Poverty • Housing occupancy

IMPORTANT COMPLEMENTS TO STANDARD DEMOGRAPHIC DATA • Vital Statistics • Births – natural gain Plus characteristics of birthing population and birth outcomes • Deaths – natural decline • (Births - Deaths = Natural Change) • Fertility – plus characteristics of the birthing population • Marriage and divorce – population stability • Morbidity and mortality

BIGGEST NEW ACTOR: THE AMERICAN COMMUNITY SURVEY • Continuous rolling survey – replaces the “long form” • Looks at us in great detail on an ongoing basis • Provides the foundation for a better understanding of socio- economic attributes • Great confidence in findings for larger populations, but much less confidence as the studied population declines • Is an average of several years (5, 3, 1). The more the years, the greater the confidence, but the farther the data are from now. • Possibility of mischief and misinformation from misuse

THE ACS HAS BEEN ASSAILED IN CONGRESS IN RECENT YEARS The sponsor of legislation to rid us of the ACS last year, Florida Republican Representative Daniel Webster proclaimed: The ACS “… is not a scientific survey; it’s a random survey!” In fact, the ACS provides some of the most accurate, objective and granular data about the economy and the American people, in something approaching real time. Ideally, Congress would use the information to make good decisions. Or economists and social scientists draw on the resource to offer better suggestions. Businesses also depend on the ACS's county-by-county statistics to inform investment and hiring decisions. As the great Peter Drucker had it, you can't manage or change what you don't measure. Republicans do themselves no favors by targeting a useful government purpose. Wall Street Journal

Average Coefficient of Variation for the College ‐ Educated Population by County Type 20% Average CV 10% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Metropolitan Large Urban Small Urban Rural County Urban ‐ Rural Continuum (BEALE) Code

County Poverty Rates: Published Estimates Estimated Rate 2005-2009 3.5 - 11.4 11.5 - 14.1 14.2 - 20.0 20.1 - 51.9

County Poverty Rates: Using Tests of Significance Estimated Rate 2005-2009 Higher than regional average Not significantly different Lower than regional average

WHERE CAN I FIND 2010 CENSUS DATA? • Census Bureau • State Data Center of Iowa • Other sites – usually at universities or consortiums http://www.statsamerica.org/

ISU – DEPT. OF ECONOMICS CENSUS PROFILES City and county-level profiles based on 2010 Census data are available at the ISU Econ site: http://www.icip.iastate.edu/

U.S. CENSUS BUREAU • American FactFinder • A very wide and potentially highly detailed set of variables from the 2010 census and from subsequent ACS estimates http://factfinder2.census.gov

STATE DATA CENTER http://www.iowadatacenter.org

USA COUNTIES IN PROFILE http://www.stats.indiana.edu/uspr/a/us_profile_frame.html

STATE OF IOWA

Iowa Population Changes, 2000 to 2010 by Levels of Urbanization 10.1% 9.7% 4.1% -2.3% -2.3% -5.4% U.S. State of Iowa Metro Larger Urban Small Urban Rural

1 DOT = 10 PEOPLE 1980 TO 1990

1990 TO 2000 1 dot = 10 people

2000 TO 2010 1 dot = 10 people

1 dot = 10 people 2010 TO 2012

Iowa Population Changes in Key Age Groups, 2000 to 2010 U.S. 32% State of Iowa 29% Metro 25% 22% Larger Urban 19% 19% Small Urban 15% 14% Rural 12% 9% 6% 5% 4% 3% 0% -1% -1% -2% -3% -5% -1% -6% -7% -8% -8% -9% -11% -15% -17% -20% Under 20 20 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 and up

10 15 20 25 30 35 1,000 POPULATION INTERGENERATIONAL EXHIBIT: BIRTHS PER 0 5 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Percentage Change in Young Adults, 2000 to 2010, by Level of Urbanization 25 to 34 35 to 44 10.4% 5.4% 2.9% -1.7% -1.6% -5.3% -9.0% -10.0% -18.1% -25.4% -27.9% -30.4% U.S. State of Iowa Metro Large Urban Small Urban Rural

Projected Populations in Selected U.S. Age Groups, 2012 Through 2020 Age 16 to 24 Age 65 and older 60,000,000 55,000,000 50,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Projected 2010 to 2020 U.S. Labor Force Change by Selected Age Groups (in 1,000s) 11,345 1,679 (2,604) Age 16 to 24 Age 25 to 54 Age 55 and older

Projected Change in Iowa Population by Selected Age Groups, 2010 to 2020 106,740 56,961 -13,900 -74,142 -117,203 Age 16 to 24 Age 25 to 44 Age 45 to 64 Age 16 to 64 Over Age 65

-40% -20% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0% 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 Projected Iowa Population Changes 2010 to 2020 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 US Percent 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 IA Percent 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 100

IOWA POPULATION PYRAMIDS 2000 AND PROJECTED TO 2030

IOWA’S DEPENDENCY RATIO – PER 100 PERSONS AGES 18 TO 64, THERE WERE OR THERE WILL BE … ELDERLY OR YOUTH DEPENDENTS 90.0 75.0 60.0 Old Age (3) 45.0 Youth (2) 30.0 15.0 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030