East Asia and the Demographic Dividend: Lessons for Africa? High - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

East Asia and the Demographic Dividend: Lessons for Africa? High Level Symposium on the Demographic Dividend and Development in Africa Andrew Mason East ‐ West Center and University of Hawaii at Manoa Dakar, Senegal, 20 June 2016

Percent Children, South Korea and Senegal, 1950 – 2065. Republic of Korea Senegal 70 Percentage of population 0 ‐ 24 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 Source: UN Population Division (2015) World Population Prospects. Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

Total consumption and labor income by age, Korea, 2010 Consumption Labor Income 25000 Labor income funds 20000 86% of consumption. Won (billions) 15000 10000 5000 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Age Source: Sang-Hyop Lee, et al., 2016. Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

Total consumption and labor income by age, Senegal, 2011 Labor income Consumption 160 140 Labor income funds 120 68% of consumption. Billions (CFA) 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Age Source: Latif Dramani et al., 2016. Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

Total consumption and labor income by age, Korea, 2010 Consumption Labor Income 25000 20000 31 percent of all Won (billions) consumption is devoted to 15000 children (under age 25) 10000 5000 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Age Source: Sang-Hyop Lee, et al., 2016. Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

Total consumption and labor income by age, Senegal, 2011 Labor income Consumption 160 65 percent of all 140 consumption is devoted to 120 children (under age 25) Billions (CFA) 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Age Source: Latif Dramani et al., 2016. Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

Per capita consumption Republic of Korea Senegal 0.9 0.8 Per capita consumption 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Age Note: Consumption expressed relative to average labor income of those 30-49. Sources: Dramani et al., 2016; Lee et al., 2016. Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

Per capita consumption Republic of Korea Senegal 0.9 0.8 Per capita consumption 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 Age Note: Consumption expressed relative to average labor income of those 30-49. Sources: Dramani et al., 2016; Lee et al., 2016. Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

Per capita spending on children Africa Asian Tigers 120 110 Consumption 65+/25 ‐ 64 100 Senegal Republic of Korea 90 80 70 60 50 40 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Consumption 0 ‐ 24/25 ‐ 64 Source: National Transfer Accounts 2016. NTA Data Sheet. Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

Human Capital – Fertility Tradeoff Source: National Transfer Accounts 2016. NTA Data Sheet. Andrew Mason June 20, 2016

Acknowledgements • Research teams in more than 70 high ‐ and low ‐ income economies • National Institute on Aging; International Development Research Centre (IDRC) of Canada; • • William and Flora Hewlett Foundation; • Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through the Gates Institute for Population and Reproductive Health at the Bloomberg School of Public Health; • United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA); • United Nations Population Division; Asian Development Bank; the World Bank; • • John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation; • European Union's Seventh Framework Programme for Research, Technological Development, and Demonstration; • Japanese government’s Academic Frontier Project for Private Universities. Andrew Mason June 20, 2016