Message 1: GDP growth was considerable and did not lag behind Asian - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

H IGH - LEVEL P ANEL OF S TAKEHOLDERS AND P ARTNERS P ANEL I: D ECENT J OBS FOR Y OUTH : T HE ROAD FOR SOCIO - ECONOMIC PROGRESS AND SOCIAL JUSTICE Dorothea Schmidt Employment Specialist Decent Work Team for North Africa S TAKEHOLDERS ’ AND D EVELOPMENT P ARTNERS ’ C ONFERENCE E MPLOYMENT FOR S TABILITY AND SOCIO - ECONOMIC PROGRESS IN N ORTH A FRICA Cairo, 18-19 th April 2012

Message 1: GDP growth was considerable and did not lag behind Asian tigers Developed Economies & European Union Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS East Asia South-East Asia & the Pacific South Asia Latin America & the Caribbean Middle East North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 GDP grwoth rates % 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011p 2012p -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 Source: IMF, October 2011

Message 2: Job creation did take place, the employment response to output growth in the Arab countries was almost double that in the Asian economies (respectively 55% compared to 30%) Job increases between 1991 and 2012 (in %) Sub-Saharan Africa North Africa Middle East Latin America & the Caribbean South Asia South-East Asia & the Pacific East Asia … Central & South-Eastern Europe … Developed Economies & 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Message 3: Education has improved in terms of numbers, especially for women; in terms of quality the progress has been less obvious.

Message 4: Demographic trends are (still) positive 0.90 North 0.80 Africa Labour Dependency Ratio 0.70 0.60 0.50 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Message 5: Labour market outcomes remain challenging Challenge 1: High unemployment rates, especially for young people and women Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Youth unemployment (15-24 years) rates by world regions 30.0 WORLD Developed Economies & 25.0 European Union Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS East Asia 20.0 % South-East Asia & the Pacific 15.0 South Asia Latin America & the Caribbean 10.0 Middle East North Africa 5.0 Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Challenge 2: High unemployment rates across all income and education levels Source: World Bank, 2009

Challenge 3: Low labour force participation rates Male labour force participation rate (%) 2011 Female labour force participation rate (%) 2011 Youth labour force participation rate (%) 2011 90.0 Adult labour force participation rate (%) 2011 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 WORLD Dev. Economies & EU Central & SE Europe East Asia SEA Asia & the South Asia Latin America & the Sub-Saharan Africa GCC Non-GCC North Africa (non-EU) & CIS Pacific Caribbean Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Challenge 4: High employment dependency ratio 3.20 North Africa 3.00 2.80 2.60 2.40 2.20 2.00 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Challenge 5: Demand side constraints Table 2: Number of jobs (millions) that would need to be created by 2016 (various scenarios) Remains constant at its 2011 Increases to If the LFP rate level 60% Constant at If unemployment rate 2011 Reduced to 6% Reduced to 6% North Africa 6,3 10,1 27,9 Source: Author’s calculations based on ILO , Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Challenge 6: Lack of high quality employment Indicator 1: Vulnerable employment Indicator 2: Working poverty at the US$ 2 a day level Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Challenge 7: high public employment share (between 10 and 80 per cent) Source: ILO, 2012

Challenge 8: Lack of productivity growth Productivity levels and changes measured as output (in total US$) per person employed, world regions 1991 to 2011 33.04% 1991 80,000 70,000 2011 60,000 Total US$ 10.64% 50,000 40,000 22.51% 15.44% 41.04% 356.70% 22.23% 30,000 76.5% 139.40% 17.80% 20,000 10,000 0 WORLD Developed Economies Central & SEEurope Sub-Saharan Africa South-East Asia & the South Asia Latin America & the Middle East East Asia North Africa (non-EU) & CIS Caribbean Pacific & EU Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Challenge 9: Slow structural shifts Manufacturing Services Source: ILO, Global Employment Trends Model, October 2011

Challenge 10: Social Protection coverage is very low Percentage of people covered and North Africa Source: ILO, 2012

Challenge 11: Lack of social dialogue linked to governments (prior to the revolutions) non-representation of youth and women Challenge 12: Non-conducive environment for enterprise creation (especially MSMEs) Challenge 13: Weak employment policies Lack of implementation Challenge 14: Mismanaged migration Brain drain, bad working conditions, discrimination Challenge 15: Lack of solid and transparent labour market information

Conclusions  It is not a surprise that these labour market deficiencies added to the frustration of people in the region and continue to be one of the main drivers of protest in all countries  The challenges need to be tackled to ensure social stability and economic progress  It is not about creating any jobs, it is about creating decent jobs  The challenges can only be solved if all partners will be involved

Thanks for your attention