Demographic Alvin Independent Update School Fall 2014 District - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Demographic Alvin Independent Update School Fall 2014 District Learn from Yesterday… Understand Today… Plan for Tomorrow

Economic Conditions • Texas remains a top state in job growth with a second quarter rate of 4.3%, 1.3 percentage points higher than the national average and the strongest growth rate in 9 years. (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas) • Houston ranked number 6 in the top 10 cities for fast-growth companies, with 76 fast-growth companies based in the city . (inc.com) • The state's unemployment rate has been at or below the national rate for 7 consecutive years . ( State Comptrollers Office ) • Unemployment rates - Texas Labor Market Information (August 2014) - U.S. 6.3% - Texas 5.5% - Houston MSA 5.4% - Brazoria County 5.7% - Pearland 4.3% • In August 2014, Houston issued 3,340 single-family housing permits. This is a 6.4% increase from August of 2013 . Year to date multi-family permits are up 83.5% from the same period in 2013. (Real Estate Center at Texas A&M) • The Houston area exported $115 billion in goods in 2013 , $35.3 billion of which was refined petroleum and coal products. (Los Angeles Times) 2

Top 15 Job Growth MSAs Ranked by Total Annual Job Growth – May 2014 3

Texas Economic Overview Texas Energy is Key to Growth • Texas is home to the two largest producing oil reserves in the nation. • The U.S. has become the world’s largest oil producer, passing Saudi Arabia and Russia. • U.S. output is more than 11 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2014, according to the International Energy Agency. They predict the U.S. could produce 19 million per day by 2019. • Texas is responsible for 36% of U.S. oil production, making it the number one oil producing state. 4

Local Economic Overview Anadarko Petroleum Office Completed • Anadarko completed construction in January on a second $180 million, 31-story office tower to serve as their headquarters • The company expects to add 450 new employees and bring an additional 1,700 from currently rented office space elsewhere • 600 employees have already been added of the last 2 years ExxonMobil New Corporate Campus • 385 acre “super campus” began construction in 2012 • New campus to house over 10,000 employees by the end of 2015 • Employees and families began moving into the area in early 2014 • 2,100 employees are expected to move in from Virginia 5

Local Economic Overview ExxonMobil Refinery Expansion • ExxonMobil is expanding their Baytown refinery capabilities investing several billion dollars in upgrades and construction • This will add 350 permanent jobs and expected to employ 10,000 construction workers during the development • It is also expected to create 4,000 additional related jobs during the process Chevron Expansion • Chevron is planning a new 50 story building in downtown Houston • The company is planning to consolidate its Houston employees and move more than 800 employees from its California location • They are expecting to add 1,700 new jobs over the next 8 years • The company is also investing over $5 billion in its Baytown and Ocean City facilities creating 400 permanent jobs and more than 10,000 construction jobs during the building process 6

Houston Economic Overview Annualized Job Growth 3.8% (170,400 new jobs August 2014 year over year) Unemployment -0.9% (5.4% August 2014 year over year) Texas Oil & Gas Rig Count 7.8% (902 September 2014) Average Home Price 5.6% ($269,800) Existing Home Inventory -12% (2.9 Month’s Supply) 7

Houston MSA Housing Market Multiple Listing Service – YTD SFD Activity & Inventory Aug-14 %Change YTD Sales 56,146 0.8% Average Price $269,800 5.6% Median Price $203,000 8.7% Listings - 6.3% 20,007 DOM -15% 46 Months of Supply 2.9 -12% 8

Houston Housing Market Single Family Homes: Quarterly Starts Source: Metrostudy 9

Houston New Home Ranking Report ISD Ranked by Annual Closings – 2Q14 Rank District Name Annual Starts Annual Closings VDL Future Katy ISD 3,749 3,611 2,738 5,439 1 Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 2,943 3,196 2,381 6,952 2 Fort Bend ISD 3,151 3,037 2,672 5,115 3 Houston ISD 3,700 2,857 2,621 5,109 4 Lamar CISD 2,225 2,081 2,583 2,190 5 Conroe ISD 2,254 2,043 3,033 3,268 6 Klein ISD 1,699 1,606 2,050 3,511 7 Humble ISD 1,304 1,251 1,465 4,377 8 Tomball ISD 1,137 975 2,142 1,987 9 Alvin ISD 773 701 1,403 3,890 10 Clear Creek ISD 713 692 1,118 757 11 New Caney ISD 602 548 585 4,030 12 Magnolia ISD 440 474 794 2,453 13 Aldine ISD 457 379 1,274 3,332 14 Spring ISD 407 369 898 2,794 15 Montgomery ISD 438 359 631 1,736 16 Spring Branch ISD 303 335 800 520 17 Dickinson ISD 351 309 582 505 18 Goose Creek ISD 277 275 750 367 19 Pasadena ISD 238 266 440 442 20 10

New Housing Activity Alvin ISD Housing Activity 500 Starts Closings Inventory 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Starts 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Closings 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1Q 182 136 195 143 205 1Q 145 116 178 178 156 2Q 165 186 204 186 231 2Q 163 189 200 168 232 3Q 196 181 204 174 3Q 211 199 193 158 4Q 147 172 151 163 4Q 163 203 182 155 Total 690 675 754 666 436 Total 682 707 753 659 388 • 2Q starts are the highest in 6 years • Closings are also at record highs, keeping close pace with starts • With 439 units, inventory remains healthy for future growth 11

Annual Closing Distribution 2Q14 Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q14 (Ranked by Annual Closings) Annual Quarter Annual Quarter Rank Subdivision Starts Starts Closings Closings 1 Sterling Lakes 146 39 145 60 2 Savannah 127 36 120 38 3 Southern Trails 105 22 103 23 4 Lakeland 62 17 65 20 5 Southfork 33 6 50 10 6 Southlake 83 29 48 27 7 Sedona Lakes 73 42 46 13 8 Kendall Lakes 38 5 34 10 9 Mustang Crossing 23 10 23 9 10 North Pointe Trails 21 10 18 9 TOTALS 711 216 652 219 12

Vacant Developed Lots 2Q14 Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q14 (Ranked by remaining VDL) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Rodeo Palms 243 637 2 Southlake 161 188 3 Cold River Ranch 157 0 4 Sedona Lakes 147 450 6 Sterling Lakes 145 0 5 Southern Trails 121 204 8 Lakeland 104 0 7 Forest Heights 56 236 9 North Pointe Trails 46 0 10 Savannah 36 283 TOTALS 1,216 1,998 13

Future Lots 2Q14 Top 10 Subdivisions - 2Q14 (Ranked by Future Inventory) Rank Subdivision VDL Future 1 Meridiana 0 5,500 2 Pomona 0 2,100 3 Savannah 36 1,725 4 Rodeo Palms 243 637 5 Sedona Lakes 147 450 6 Morgan's Landing 7 324 7 Martha's Vineyard 0 246 8 Forest Heights 56 236 9 Kendall Lakes 22 206 10 Southern Trails 121 204 TOTALS 632 10,186 14

Active Subdivision ! ! ! ! ! ! « ¬ ! ! Sedona Lakes ! ! ! ! ! ! ! 288 ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !! # ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! Sedona Lakes ! • 900 Total Homes !! ! • 600 Remaining To Construct • Estimated Velocity Rates: • 2015 = 150 Homes ! • 2016 = 150 Homes • 2017 = 150 Homes • Mason Elementary Zone MASON ! ! Wesson Sand Company ¬ « 288 15

Active Subdivision Savannah ! ! ! YORK DUKE ! Future Pomona CORD 48 Development Savannah Savannah Development CORD 58 • Friendswood Development Company • 3,335 Total Lots D 5 8 C O R • 36 VDL ! T R D P O S • 1,725 Futures • 120 Annual Closings • Split Between Savannah Lakes & SAVANNAH MANVEL JH JETER York Elementary Zone LAKES ! ! CORD 48 ¬ « 6 COEN RD 16

Active Subdivision Rodeo Palms Future Pomona Development Sedona Lakes Rodeo Palms • 6 Annual Starts • 9 Annual Closings • 3 Finished Vacant • 243 Vacant Developed Lots • 637 Futures Rodeo • Jeter Elementary Palms 17

Active Subdivision Southern Trails Ft. Bend ISD Shadow Broadway Ridge Southern Trails • 523 Total Acres • 105 Annual Starts • 103 Annual Closings Southern Trails • 7 Finished Vacant Southlake • 121 Vacant Developed Lots • 204 Future Lots Development • $148K-$594K • Split Between York & Duke Elementary CR 59 18

Active Subdivision Southlake Ft. Bend ISD Shadow Broadway Ridge Southlake • 722 Total Lots • 83 Annual Starts • 48 Annual Closings • 10 Finished Vacant • 161 Vacant Developed Lots Southlake • 188 Future Lots Development • $230K-$578K Southern Trails • Small Northwest Portion Falls Within Ft. Bend ISD • York Elementary CR 59 19

Active Subdivision Shadow Ridge Shadow Ridge Ft. Bend ISD • Newmark Homes • 115 Total Lots • Models Under Construction • Homes Priced F rom $250K’s & Up Shadow • Shadow Creek Ranch HOA • York Elementary Ridge Southern Trails Southlake Development 20