Contributions of Observations to Assessments of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Riley Duren Chief Systems Engineer Earth Science & Technology Directorate Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology March 4, 2010 contributions from many colleagues at NASA, DOE labs, NOAA, OSTP, and other agencies and organizations 1
outline Disclaimers • Context: carbon cycle & key terminology • Global, regionally resolved, observa;onally derived es;mates of emissions • Current & future “surface‐based” (air/land/sea) observa;ons • Current & future space‐based observa;ons • The need for well‐posed ques;ons • Other aIributes of monitoring systems (beyond observa;ons) • Summary • – Exis;ng capabili;es are good but are research‐oriented – Research capabili;es COULD be leveraged to support policy assessment – Need for interna;onal transparency and collabora;on represents an opportunity for the US References • 2
Disclaimers 1. This material does not represent official statements or policies of NASA or any other federal agency. 2. Our schedule today precludes a comprehensive summary of all observing assets, models, data systems, decision‐support tools, organiza;ons, sectors, and programs Instead, an entrée: observa;ons of atmospheric GHGs – References (p14) offer a broader treatment of GHG/carbon observa;ons including land, oceans, and other needs and acronyms are summarized on slide 16 3
Concentra;ons, Fluxes, & Emissions (and the need for a ;ered set of observa;ons) Amount of atmospheric CO 2 can be expressed as a total stock (GtC) or as a concentration/mole fraction (ppm) 828 GtC 388 ppm Carbon Fluxes/ Observations of greenhouse & other gases “flows”: (FOCUS FOR TODAY) Sources(+) & Sinks(-) Terrestrial (land) carbon observations Ocean carbon observations Source: N Sour ce: NASA Ear ASA Earth Obser th Observa vator tory y GtC = 1 giga-ton of carbon (1 billion tons) Net Emission: sum total of Fluxes (sources & sinks) over a given area 4 for some time interval (typically a year)
Assessing reported emissions using a synthesis of satellite observa;ons and atmospheric modeling Example: global Carbon Monoxide (CO) annual net emissions (2004-2005) derived from concentration observations from MOPITT 1 , AIRS 2 , & SCIAMACHY 3 Colors indicate ratio between the observationally-derived and reported emissions (possible factor of 2+ underreporting in some regions) CO is not a direct GHG but is a good combustion tracer and a well-studied example of this concept 5 1 Canada/US, 2 US, 3 EU Kopacz et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 855–876, 2010
Towards regional‐scale observa;onally derived GHG data Global Scale 1 zone 1958- present Sub-continental Scale 22 zones 1995- present “Regional” Scale 65,000+ zones source: TransCom Future 6 source: EDGAR
Current surface‐based observa;ons of GHGs Concentrations flux inversions AGAGE NASA Carbon & partners Tracker (from Switzerland, NOAA Italy, Norway, Japan, Korea, and China) TCCON GAW NASA WMO HIPPO NSF/NOAA MAMAP Direct fluxes IUP/GFZ FluxNet DOE, NSF, DOC, CAMS USDA, US assets highlighted DOE NASA, WMO in green font (25% of FluxNet & 50% of GAW are US assets) 7
Future (planned) surface‐based GHG observa;ons NOAA North America network enhancements (2011‐2015) • Double the number of towers and aircraa sites – Deploy “air core” ver;cal profile sampling on balloons & aircraa – Source: Tans, 2010 DOE accelerator mass spectrometry enhancements • Increase throughput to improve 14 CO 2 (fossil‐fuel tracer) accuracy – European Integrated Carbon Observing • System ‐ ICOS (2014) Integrates exis;ng & new observa;ons with a common – data system Source: Ciais et al., 2009 8
Current satellite GHG observa;ons AIRS, TES, IASI SCIAMACHY, GOSAT AIRS CO2 animation http://airs.jpl.nasa.gov/ Source: Chahine et al., 2008 thermal-emission reflected sunlight SCIAMACHY Methane (2003 average) Currently Operational Missions Source: Buchwitz et al., 2007 9 US assets listed in green *CO 2 products often have different precision and spatial scale than for individual samples
Future (planned) satellite GHG observa;ons OCO cloud-clear soundings (100,000+ per day) Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) 1-Day 3-Days OCO animation http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/oco/multimedia Source: Miller, Crisp, et al., 2009 ASCENDS Planned Missions 2013-2010 Day/night and high latitude capability 10 US assets listed in green *CO 2 products often have different precision and spatial scale than for individual samples
Requirements for policy‐relevant observa;ons depend cri;cally on well‐posed ques,ons Examples of policy relevant questions where observationally-derived information may apply: Are the actual Does the actual carbon Are Country-X’s emissions from stock match the reported actual emissions individual point exceeding their- baseline for a forest sources in Country-X carbon offset credit by reported (national exceeding their Country-X or Project-Y? inventory) emissions? reported emissions? Are disturbances Are policies meeting How are individual occurring in Country-X or the desired objective point source emitters Project-Y that impact the (limiting GHG being operated claimed carbon credit (is concentrations)? (dynamic behavior)? the offset permanent)? I. Point Source II. Global GHG III. Global Carbon Monitoring Flux Monitoring Stock Monitoring 11
Observa;ons are necessary but not sufficient (other aIributes of a robust monitoring system) • Driven by Policy Needs – Must support timely decision-making & mitigation/adaptation assessment – Convert data to policy-relevant information on appropriate spatio-temporal scales • Actionable Products – Must distinguish anthropogenic from natural background – Carbon forecasts (prognostics as well as diagnostics) • Global Coverage – Detect “leakage” – No denied territory – Carbon stocks and flows in terrestrial biosphere & ocean (not just atmosphere) • Transparent, Unassailable, & Objective – Traceability and public availability of data, models, & products – Relentless attention to bias/errors (regular calibration & validation) • Sustained, Flexible, & Scalable – Initially measure CO 2 , followed by CH 4 & other Kyoto gases – Learn (iterate) as we go – Continued operation over decades 12 Source: GHG Information System collaboration between DOE labs, NASA centers, NOAA and series of interagency workshops and meetings involving ~30 organizations
Summary 1. Current observa;onal (& modeling/analysis) capabili;es are significant & improving ‐ but most were designed for scien;fic research, not decision‐support. 2. Research capabili;es could be leveraged to support policy assessments if we… Integrate atmo/land/ocean observa;ons with improved models and data systems – Provide a common framework to compare/reconcile inventories and observa;ons – – Avoid cri;cal data gaps (replace lost/aging satellites and sustain ground networks) Strategically plan & design a sustained capability (with new assets as needed) – Collaborate (decision‐makers & informa;on providers) to define requirements – 3. Transparency and interna;onal collabora;on/coordina;on will be necessary for most GHG monitoring applica;ons – this is an opportunity for US leadership. Thank you! 13
Backup material 14
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