Climate Data Needed for Health Risk Assessment, Prediction & - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring-Assessment-Prediction for Asia in 2020 (FOCRAII 2020) 7th May 2020 Climate Data Needed for Health Risk Assessment, Prediction & Planning Dr LIU Qiyong Chief Scientist for Vector-Borne Disease in China CDC Chief Scientist for Health and Climate Change in China National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC)

Outline  Platform and integration of climate change and health related data in China  Integration of key infectious diseases surveillance data in China  Health risks caused by climate change and variation  Integration challenges of climate and health data

China CDC organization structure Total staff: 2120 (2017) China CDC Offices of International Cooperation, Science & Technology Administration & Logistics Lab Management, Education & Training, Office of Health Standards Management Department Center for Global Non-communicable Public Health Infectious Diseases Public Health Diseases Public Health Emergency Center Division of Public Health Office for NCD Infectious Diseases Management Public Health Surveillance and Information Services TB Control & Prevention Communicable Disease Viral Disease Parasitic Diseases Immunization Program AIDS/STD National Center for NCD Nutrition and Health Women & Children’s Health Tobacco Control Environmental Health Occupational Health Radiological Protection Rural Water Policy Research and Health Communication Office for Epidemiology Management of 12320 Health Hotline Linked Units: Center for Endemic Disease Control Center for STD Control Center for Leprosy Control Clinical Center for TB Prevention and Control Base for Plague & Brucellosis Control and Prevention Center for Child and Adolescent Health Center for Mental Health Center for Senior Health 3

Main ID surveillance systems in China  Notifiable infectious disease reporting system  Enhanced surveillance for selected diseases and vectors  AIDS,TB with personal case information system  27 key infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system  STD surveillance systems  Other surveillance system 4

National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) 2012CB955500 Climate change impacts on human health and adaptation mechanism research Qiyong Liu Chief Scientist for Climate Change and Health in China 2012-2016 Institute of Institute of National Climate National Climate Shandong Shandong Institute of Institute of Beijing Normal Beijing Normal Geographical Science Geographical Science China CDC China CDC Microbiology Chinese Microbiology Chinese Center Center University University and Natural Resources and Natural Resources University University Academy of Science Academy of Science Research,CAS Research,CAS

Top-level Design of Environment & Health Platform flowchart Functions and Retrospective Prospective Predicting demands of studies studies studies health Data & Climate Mechanism Technology Adaptation Population integration Indentifying strategies Diseases Modeling characteristics Environment establishment Database Geography Shared platform Large-scale Small-scale analysis analysis Fundamental Practical studies application

Project 3 ： Identification of vulnerable population & risk regions Project 4 ： Response and adaptation to climate- sensitive diseases in different regions Understanding process Project 1 ： Climate (mean) Project 2 ： Extreme weather and mechanism change impacts on human events impacts on population health health

5 Adaptive mechanism Climate Burden Vulnerable Regional sensitive population of discrepancy diseases Disease 3 4 1 2

Research issues and locations Research issues and locations Heat wave 江苏 ( 南京 ) 、广东 ( 深 圳 ) 、黑龙江 ( 哈尔滨 ) 、山东、西藏、 海南、浙江 ( 宁波 ) 、安徽、湖北、 湖南、重庆 Cold snap 江苏 ( 南京 ) 、广东 ( 深 圳 ) 、黑龙江 ( 哈尔滨 ) 、山东、湖南、 安徽 Flo lood 安徽、广西、湖南、辽宁、 四川、浙江、甘肃 Cyclone 广州、宁德、温州、海 南、山东、辽宁、江苏 Drought 湖南、河北、吉林、云南、 青海 Sand storm 甘肃、内蒙、宁夏 Dengue Dengue 广东、浙江、山东 安徽省 痢疾、甲肝、流感、疟疾 全国 手足口 Blue Blue ： since 2012 since 2012 Red Red ： since 2014 since 2014 Most of them unpublished

Data sharing and dynamic decision Platform support system Decision making assist and visible display Diseases report & surveillance Data sharing platform Integration of Dynamic catalog surveillance of multi-source Vectors data sets data sets surveillance Public catalog analyz Weather, disease, publish e population, Organization Deaths space Cases environment, catalog media Ecological environment surveillance Maintenance Spatial- Maintenance Data Maintenance of data items Maintenance of temporal of public integration of data set organization analysis tools catalog tools catalog Meteorological observation stations

Data Sharing Platform • Website: http://10.249.1.67 . • Functions: Data sharing, external information release, results display, information sharing among subjects, and dynamic academic exchange.

Data Sharing Platform Notifiable infectious diseases Cause-of-death relevant data

Research and Development of Key Biosafety Technology: Project “ Integration Technology Research on National Biosafety Monitoring Network system ” - Subject “ Research and Application of National important Monitoring data Integration Technology ” • Technology Plan Database Construction Infectious Disease National vector data Invasive animal Pathogenic Climatic data, Invasive vegetation microorganism menu Environmental data, Population, GDP Gene Data Integration Design Biology Time Space Data Integration Platform construction Original data query Data integration Metadata introduction and download query and visualization Dengue fever early warning system

Query and Visualization Platform of National Key Monitoring data -- Data Integration query Query condition Query result(Sheet ) Query result(Map)

伊蚊及登革病毒循环 Aedes Aedes and dengue and dengue virus circulation virus circulation 幼虫 蛹 Larvae Pupae 卵 Egg 外潜伏期 8-10 10 天 成蚊 登革热病例 External Adult Dengue case incubation period 8-10 days 内潜伏期 3-14 14 天 Incubation period 带毒蚊虫 3-14 days Virus-carrying mosquito 登革热病例 Dengue case

气候变化直接影响蚊虫的分布、密度和登革热的发病率 Dengue fever incidence, climate change and mosquito density Lei Xu et al. PNAS 2017

Climate push the dengue to northwestern China 全球气候变化可能与 我国登革热从沿海扩 散到内陆有关 Climate push the dengue to northwestern China Contours were drawn based on the trend surface, which presented the predicted dengue invasive year. The slope of the trend surface represents the reciprocal spread speed of dengue in China from the year 1978 to 2016. Red points indicate the location of counties with cases of dengue infection. Based on the spatial spreading pattern of Trend surface analysis, the dengue extend from coastal region into inner land of China, which may link with the global climate change XU,Lei., et al

The dengue risk is expanding due to global warming under different RCP scenarios in China • Dengue risk areas will expanded significantly to northward and the risk population will increased markedly under all RCP climate scenarios. • There will be an increase in human population at high risk of dengue from168 million today (in 142 counties) to 277 million (in 344 counties) in the 2050s, and 490 million (in 456 counties) by the 2100s under RCP8.5.

The prediction of dengue fever using climatic factors in China Time series Poisson model showed that imported cases in the previous month , minimum temperature in the previous month and accumulative precipitation with three month lags could project the dengue outbreaks occurred in 2013 and 2014 after controlling the autocorrelation, seasonality and long-term trend. 19

登革热决策支持系统 气候变化对人类健康的影响与适应机制研究项目 登革热决策支持系统

Sustainable dengue control strategic model in China • BI threshold : Early warning and outbreak risk management: ＜ 5 ： Transmission blocked MSA, Mos-prevention + breeding sites management (+ adulticiding) to ≥ 5 ： Sustained transmission reduce mosquito ＜ the threshold, to minimize the outbreak risk ≥ 10 ： Outbreak ≥ 20 ： Regional outbreak Outbreak response ： Early detection ， MSA, Mos-prevention EW&RM + breeding sites management + adulticiding to reduce mosquito abundance ＜ the threshold, case management, to minimize Outbreak the secondary and fatal cases Response & alert Early detection S&C, CM Mosquito The number of cases that cases can be reduced Day 09:19 21

高温热浪与健康风险早期预警系统