Click to edit Master title style DSP3 - The Power of Choice Role of Pricing and Technology 1 19 April 2012
Contents The problem - network perspective • Load duration and load factor trends The price signals • Residential focus • Past success Changing and emerging technology • Hot Water • Air Conditioning • Pools 2
Demand Side Participation for Networks The demand management programs being undertaken by the distributors are encouraging and are supported as a means of reducing future demand growth and improving network load factors Electricity Network Capital Program review 2011 p12 • Capacity for the network element on the few peak • Complex load days • Location • Declining load factor - less efficient use of the network • Size • Current pricing options to reward behaviours that improve load factor • timing • The technology options to make those behaviours convenient 3
Load Duration Curve 4,600 16% 5,000 2010/ 11 Load Duration curve is 4,300 "peakier" com pared to the 2009/ 10 Load Duration curve. Inset 4,000 This indicates that the network was under utilised in the 2010/ 11 4,000 year com pared to the 2009/ 10 3,700 year. 3,400 0% 1% 2% 3,000 MW 2,000 MW 2010/ 11 1,000 - 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Percent of half hour periods 4
The peak is getting peakier Click to edit Master title style 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,420 4,420 4,420 4,420 4,140 4,140 4,140 4,140 3,860 3,860 3,860 3,860 3,580 3,580 3,580 3,580 3,300 3,300 3,300 3,300 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 4,700 13% 11% 8% 12% 3,760 2,820 1,880 940 - 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 5 5
The Supply Challenge Overall peak demand is growing in SEQ This is what we are Maximum actual peak 60% demand in MW on the building for ENERGEX network was recorded on 50% 15 February 2010 Percentage Growth 40% 30% 20% This is what we are billing for 10% 0% 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 Energy Grow th Demand Grow th 6
The Supply Challenge C&I peak demand and energy consumption are tracking consistently and the load factor is stable Commercial and Industrial Customers - Peak Demand Growth vs Energy Growth 45% Growth in peak demand C&I 40% Growth in energy sales C&I 35% 30% 25% 50% of energy 20% 40% of MD 15% 20% of assets 10% 5% 0% 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 7
The Supply Challenge Residential energy consumption has declined while peak demand has increased resulting in a worsening load factor Residential Customers - Peak Demand Growth vs Energy Growth 70% Growth in peak demand residential 60% Growth in energy sales residential 50% 50% of energy 60% of MD 40% 80% of assets 30% 20% 10% 0% 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 8
Current Residential Price Signals • Economy T33 and Super Economy • T31 60% reduction, 8 hours per day - $5.54 month • T33 40% reduction, 18 hours per day - $5.54 month • Normal - T11 - with a monthly fixed $7.96 month • Inclining Block Tariff T11- 1 July 2012 • Voluntary Time of Use Tariff T12 - 1 July 2012 9
Proposed retail tariffs – IBT, TOU, Fixed Charge Source: QCA Draft Determination Regulated Retail Electricity Prices 2012-13 Proposed Inclining Block Tariff Proposed Fixed Charge 3 This is a charge that, in application, is Block 3 Block 3 Tariff Block / Level 2 Block 2 Block 2 charged at a rate of 78.674 cents per Block 1 day (ex GST) for all customers on Block 3 Block 2 T11 (IBT) and T12 (ToU) 1 Block 1 Monthly charge equates to approx 0 $23.94 per month (ex GST). 0 ‐ 5,000 kWh 5,001 ‐ 10,000 kWh 10,001+ kWh kWh per year Proposed Time of Use Tariff Proposed Time of Use Tariff Saturday / Sunday Monday ‐ Friday 3 3 Peak Tariff Block / Level Tariff Block / Level Shoulder 2 2 Shoulder Off-Peak Off-Peak Peak 1 Shoulder Shoulder 1 Off ‐ Peak Off ‐ Peak 0 0 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 0:00 1:00 2:00 3:00 4:00 5:00 6:00 7:00 8:00 9:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Time of Day Time of Day 10
Proposed Controlled Load – Economy, Super Economy Source: QCA Draft Determination Regulated Retail Electricity Prices 2012-13 Proposed Controlled Load Tariffs V Proposed ToU Shoulder 3 Tariff Block / Level 2 Shoulder 33 31 1 0 Tariff 31 Tariff 33 ToU Shoulder Tariff The gazetted minimum payment of $5.54 per month ex GST for Tariff 31 and Tariff 33 have been removed with no minimum charge applying in the 2012-13 gazette 11
Controlled load tariffs were effective – Hot Water - Behaviours are changing Tariff Connection by Year of Premise Creation 100% 90% Proportion of Tariff Combinations 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Tariff 11 Only Tariff 11 & Off-Peak 12
Controlled load tariffs now – Regaining lost ground with focus on GHE hot water Proportion of new domestic dwellings that have installed controlled load tariff 0.07 T9000 (T31) T9100 (T33) 0.06 0.05 % of Dwellings 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-10 Aug-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Month 13
Prices signals • The proposed ToU and IBT are steps on a journey towards more cost reflective price signals • Features that need to be signalled to customers • Capacity - pay for the demand you choose • Peak Events - take a reward if choose to respond 14
The next steps And customers will respond to signals … 15 Extract from Paul Simshauser Presentation at AEMC Forum 1 April 2011
Technology • Old Demand Management Technology • Electric Storage Hot water, some Pools pumps • Limited visibility – and care factor • Now AS4755 Air Conditioners are for sale this year • High care factor • many appliances could be managed if the incentive and convenience are present 16
Greenhouse Efficient Hot Water Systems Old system generally on controlled load • 2-2.5 hrs per day, 3.6 kW element • 3000 – 3300 kWh per year - cost $305 • Contribution to network - $150 • impact on Peak , nil New electric boost solar, usually T11 • 2 hrs per day 15 days per year 3.6 kW element • 108 kWh per year cost $24 • Contribution to network $12 • impact on peak, up to $7,500 before diversity, nil if connected to controlled load circuit
Load Management – Hot Water Load Forecast Number of Substations Peaking in Winter With / Without Existing Hot Water Load Control Number of Substations 84 90 80 70 60 42 50 If H/W Load is Not Controlled 40 H/W Controlled (existing) 30 20 10 0 Winter
Load Management – Hot Water Load Forecast With Switching Program •Reduce the number of Winter peaking subs by 42 •System and Individual peaks are reduced on average by ~ 7% (some up to 14%) •Provides 95 substations with reduction of > 3% (predominately Winter, but some Summer) Load Control drops the winter peak
Pools • Two offers in the market • Connection to controlled load T33 • Direct circuit from the switchboard to the pump socket outlet • High efficiency pump with variable speed drive • And you can do both • Strong industry support, great value for consumers
Building on the foundation: PeakSmart Air-Conditioning Click to edit Master title style This is NOT about turning off air conditioners! Comfort is King Sophisticated Demand Management •A/C demand management is designed to minimise any perceivable change Standards / Manufacturers - AS4755 New Demand Reduction AC Technology • Input energy capping NOT Compressor cycling (ECC & Cool change) Industry led model: Work with AC manufacturers, sales & installation channels to target new AC units from 2012 Target >66,000 units in SE Qld by 2015 (30MW peak load reduction) 21
Where are we headed? Smart Solutions Consumption based tariff trial - Average Brisbane results 5 summer events throughout 2011. All days greater than 30° BRISBANE Control vs Consumption Trial Participants (MDPD) 0.8 Half hourly electricity usage (kWh) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00 22:00 Time of Day 22 Consumption Group Control Group PRELIMINARY RESULTS ONLY
To achieve peak demand reductions • Communications • SMS or phone call • Day before notice • Response • Voluntary • Varied, not usually air conditioning • People found capacity when given the opportunity and incentive • Meter comms only used for data collection, process could be run on standard interval meters • With Home automation could be seamless and convenient • Appliances with capability • Incentives to reward 23
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