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Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style Edit Master text styles Edit Master text styles Introduction to TESLA Forecasting Solutions

Who are TESLA Forecasting Solutions? Experts in electricity and gas Not to be confused with Tesla demand forecasting since Motors 1992 – this is our niche Helping clients across the globe with offices in the US, UK and New Zealand Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style Edit Master text styles Edit Master text styles

Some companies we have helped Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style Edit Master text styles Edit Master text styles

TESLA process TESLA Products Short Term Load & Customer Counts Long Term TESLA Weather MODEL Weather Risk Data Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style Weather Decomp Edit Master text styles Edit Master text styles

Complete weather inputs MeteoGroup provide weather forecasts , updated every hour, for 14 day horizon Typical model contains several hundred hourly weather variables , not just temperature TESLA can utilise comparable weather forecasts as required Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style Powered by Edit Master text styles Edit Master text styles

Client model is crafted by our own econometricians Winter and summer model Latent variable to Time proxy varying structural coefficients change TESLA MODEL Lag School structure holiday and for delay vacation effects patterns Interaction of weather Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style variables Edit Master text styles Edit Master text styles

Short Term Forecasting Short Term Forecast Up to 14 day ahead forecast Can be updated every hour Simple risk analysis using the TESLA “ Temperature Sensitivity ” tool Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style Edit Master text styles Edit Master text styles

Long Term Forecasting Long Term Forecast Same model - longer term scenarios consistent with short term Weather Risk solutions used after 14 day horizon Evidence based trends from demand data incorporated into the future Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style Edit Master text styles Edit Master text styles

Weather risk Weather Risk Scenarios Weather risk utilises historic observed weather Many scenarios computed and ordered into percentiles Percentiles are customisable dependant on client demands Useful for risk and scenario analysis Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style Edit Master text styles Edit Master text styles

Weather decomposition Weather Decomposition Adjusts historic demand series to climatic average “normal” weather conditions Hot summers and cold winters distort the underlying demand trends Year-on-year change can indicate network growth or shrinkage Useful for network and financial planning Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style Edit Master text styles Edit Master text styles

The TESLA model is accurate Awarded 2 nd place out of 100+ participants in TEPCO forecasting challenge First time forecasting load in Japan , with minimal weather data The only overseas firm to place TESLA and TEPCO began collaborating after the contest Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style Edit Master text styles Edit Master text styles

Accurate on holidays Golden Week Forecast 8am Day Ahead MAPE Greenery Day 1.56% Sat 4th May 2019 Children's Day 1.11% Sun 5th May 2019 Children's Day Observed 1.06% Mon 6th May 2019 Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style 0% 1% 2% Edit Master text styles Edit Master text styles

Come visit us at Booth AK23 Tony Baker Mark Todoroff Asia Pacific Regional Director Business Development Director 3/34 Te Pai Place 3/34 Te Pai Place Henderson Henderson Auckland, 0610 Auckland, 0610 New Zealand New Zealand +64 (0) 9 551 5039 +64 (0) 9 551 5039 tbaker@teslaforecast.com mtodoroff@teslaforecast.com www.teslaforecast.com www.teslaforecast.com Click to edit Master title style Click to edit Master title style Edit Master text styles Edit Master text styles