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Oct 10, 2022 •232 likes •1.07k views

"Can Photovoltaics Provide a Technical Fix to Controlling CO 2 Emissions?" Martin A. Green, UNSW Sydney Recent cost reductions US$/Watt >15x in 10 years $0.22 Jan-19 PV now cheapest! How low? $10/MWh? (2018) (2017) (2016)

  1. "Can Photovoltaics Provide a Technical Fix to Controlling CO 2 Emissions?" Martin A. Green, UNSW Sydney

  2. Recent cost reductions US$/Watt >15x in 10 years $0.22 Jan-19

  3. PV now cheapest! How low? $10/MWh?

  4. (2018) (2017) (2016) Solar cheaper than retail electricity prices (2014)

  5. 600MW, 15 GWh 888MW, $40-50/MWh

  6. PV market growing (> 0.1 TW in 2018) January 16, 2019 2019f

  7. PV market growing (> 0.1 TW in 2018) 25%/year January 16, 2019 compounded 2019f

  8. PV market growing (> 0.1 TW in 2018) 60 25%/year 50 PERC Capacity, % world total compounded 40 30 20 10 0 2019f 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

  10. Global CO2 emissions

  11. 2 o C trajectory Unresolved problem!

  12. 2 o C trajectory Unresolved problem! 1TW solar

  13. 2 o C trajectory Unresolved problem! 1TW solar

  14. 2 o C trajectory Unresolved problem! 1TW solar

  15. Source of global CO 2 emissions

  16. Positive impact for limited solar Old record

  17. “Duck curve”

  18. “Duck curve”

  19. “Duck curve”

  20. “Duck curve” Wind Curtailment SA 2018 Q3

  21. “Duck curve” Wind Curtailment SA 2018 Q3

  22. “Duck curve” 2023? Wind Curtailment SA 2018 Q3

  23. “Duck curve” 2023? Wind Curtailment SA 2018 Q3

  24. “Duck curve” 1. Storage

  25. Pumped hydro

  26. Pumped hydro

  27. Japan’s summer peak Mid- summer Noon

  28. Japan’s summer peak 25 GW Mid- summer Noon

  29. Japan’s summer peak 25 GW

  30. Pumped hydro Kyushu, May 4, 2016

  31. Tesla “Big Battery” Hornsdale 15 GWh 5 GWh 5 GWh

  32. Snowy 2.0 (2GW, 350GWh)

  33. “Off river” pumped hydro Presenzano (1GW, 5GWh)

  34. “Off river” pumped hydro

  35. “Off river” pumped hydro

  36. Tesla “Big Battery” Hornsdale (100MW, 129MWh)

  37. Tesla “Big Battery” Hornsdale (100MW, 129MWh)

  38. Tesla “Big Battery” Hornsdale (100MW, 129MWh)

  46. Vanadium Redox Flow (200MW, 800MWh)

  47. Vanadium Redox Flow (200MW, 800MWh)

  48. “Duck curve” 2. Load switching

  49. Load switching: Boost daytime not night demand 2. Load matching Day of NSW peak demand in 2003 Summer

  50. 2004 Load switching: Boost daytime not night demand 2. Load matching Day of NSW peak demand in 2003 Summer Day of peak demand in 2002 Winter

  51. Load switching: Boost daytime not night demand 2. Load matching 2004 Pool pumps Refrigerators Space heat Off-peak hot water

  52. “Duck curve” 3. New daytime loads

  53. “Duck curve” New night-time loads

  54. “Duck curve” New night-time loads

  55. New daytime loads 1. Electric vehicle charging

  56. New daytime loads 1. Electric vehicle charging 2. Desalination

  57. New daytime loads 1. Electric vehicle charging 2. Desalination 3. Hydrogen from H 2 O (other fuels)

  58. New daytime loads 1. Electric vehicle charging 2. Desalination 3. Hydrogen from H 2 O (other fuels) 4. CO2 removal, mineralisation

  59. “Duck curve” 4. Import / Export

  60. Sun always shining somewhere Storage or immediate transmission? J. Luther

  64. Wind speed

  66. Wind Solar

  67. Wind Solar

  68. How far can electricity be sent?

  69. How far can electricity be sent?

  70. How far can electricity be sent?

  71. Sun always shining somewhere Storage or immediate transmission? J. Luther

  72. Sun always shining somewhere Storage or immediate transmission? J. Luther

  73. Source of global CO 2 emissions

  74. Source of global CO 2 emissions

  75. Growth in annual sales

  76. Growth in annual sales

  77. Source of global CO 2 emissions

  79. Parallel connection top view

  80. Source of global CO 2 emissions

  82. Thank you!

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