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Martin A. Green UNSW Australia (m.green@unsw.edu.au) UNSW - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics How Did Silicon Solar Cells Get So Cheap? Martin A. Green UNSW Australia (m.green@unsw.edu.au) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight Recent PPAs (power purchase agreements) $24.20/MWh

  1. Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics How Did Silicon Solar Cells Get So Cheap?” Martin A. Green UNSW Australia (m.green@unsw.edu.au) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  2. Recent PPAs (power purchase agreements) $24.20/MWh UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  3. Module Cost / Price Global Perspective UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  4. The beginning (1839) 1839 Edmond Bequerel Edmond Bequerel UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  5. The 1930s UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  6. UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  7. First silicon pn junction cell (Russell Ohl, 1941) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  8. First efficient silicon cells (1953/4) Pearson, Chapin & Fuller UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  9. First efficient cells (1953/4) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  10. First efficient cells (1953/4) 25 Telstar I (1962) 20 UNSW Efficiency, % 15 10 5 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 UNSW Vanguard I (1958) Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  11. Black cell (COMSAT 1974) 25 20 UNSW Efficiency, % 15 10 5 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  12. Black cell (COMSAT 1974) 25 20 UNSW Efficiency, % 15 10 5 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  13. Black cell (COMSAT 1974) 25 20 UNSW Efficiency, % 15 10 5 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  14. Black cell (COMSAT 1974) 25 20 UNSW Efficiency, % 15 10 Al-BSF cell 5 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  15. Black cell (COMSAT 1974) 1975 IEEE Photovoltaic Specialists Conference 25 20 UNSW Efficiency, % 15 10 Al-BSF cell 5 Al-BSF cell 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  16. Global Perspective UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  17. Global Perspective UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  18. Photovoltaics Commercial/ Demo UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  19. Photovoltaics Commercial/ Demo UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  20. Japanese “Million Roof” Program Rokko Island 1986 UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  21. Japanese “Million Roof” Program Rokko Island 1986 Launched 1993/4 (World PV production 60 MW) 70,000 roofs by FY 2000 1 million by FY 2010 (5 GW) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  22. Japanese “Million Roof” Program Rokko Island 1986 % subsidy 50% 40% 30% Launched 1993/4 20% (World PV production 60 MW) 10% 70,000 roofs by FY 2000 0% 1 million by FY 2010 (5 GW) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  23. Japanese “Million Roof” Program Rokko Island Japan 1986 USA % subsidy 50% 40% 30% Launched 1993/4 20% (World PV production 60 MW) 10% 70,000 roofs by FY 2000 0% 1 million by FY 2010 (5 GW) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  24. Chernobyl UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  25. Chernobyl UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  26. Global Warming UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  27. German Feed-In Tariff (FIT) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  28. First World Record (1983) PERC 25 UNSW/ # Stanford 20 8 UNSW Efficiency, % COMSAT 15 10 Bell Labs 5 # Elsevier “Top 10” 5 Milestones in PV 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  29. First World Record (1983) PERC 25 UNSW/ # Stanford 20 8 UNSW Efficiency, % COMSAT 15 10 Bell Labs 5 # Elsevier “Top 10” 5 Milestones in PV 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  30. Cell technology BSF HJ IBC PERC UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  31. Buried contact solar cell (Saturn cell) First big system Toledo, 1994 UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  32. China visit, 1994 (“Devoid of all appropriate infrastructure”) First big system 1994 Zhengrong Shi David Hogg UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  33. Pacific Solar, 1995 Training ground for Chinese industry c-Si on glass (CSG) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  34. Pacific Solar, 1995 Training ground for Chinese industry Solar Valley, Thalheim, 2004 UNSW TF c-Si on glass (CSG) Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  35. Pacific Solar, 1995 Crystalline Silicon on Glass (CSG) 1997 UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  36. Global Perspective 1997 UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  37. 9/9/2002: Launch of Chinese PV Industry UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  38. Capitalization UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  39. Capitalization First private Chinese NYSE Largest tech float 2005 1. Establishes first viable private cell production facility in China 2. Establishes competitive position internationally for Chinese modules 3. Helps build up local supply chain to reduce costs 4. Pioneers capital raising on US markets to finance PV growth in China (Convertible senior notes) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  40. Capitalization First private Chinese NYSE Largest tech float 2005 1. Establishes first viable private cell production facility in China 2. Establishes competitive position internationally for Chinese modules 3. Helps build up local supply chain to reduce costs 4. Pioneers capital raising on US markets to finance PV growth in China (Convertible senior notes) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  41. “First wave” “Second wave” Capitalization First private Chinese NYSE Largest tech float 2005 1. Establishes first viable private cell production facility in China 2. Establishes competitive position internationally for Chinese modules 3. Helps build up local supply chain to reduce costs 4. Pioneers capital raising on US markets to finance PV growth in China (Convertible senior notes) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  42. Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government: From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions) (Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  43. Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government: From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions) (Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer) After Suntech IPO (end-2005), “uncoordinated , irrational exuberance ” creates “Third Wave” UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  44. Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government: From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions) (Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer) After Suntech IPO (end-2005), “uncoordinated , irrational exuberance ” creates “Third Wave” UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  45. Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government: From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions) (Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer) After Suntech IPO (2005), “uncoordinated , irrational exuberance ” creates “Third Wave” UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  46. Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government: From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions) (Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer) After Suntech IPO (2005), “uncoordinated , irrational exuberance ” creates “Third Wave” UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  47. Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government: From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions) (Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer) After Suntech IPO (2005), “uncoordinated , irrational exuberance ” creates “Third Wave” UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  48. Chinese Government Involvement . Local Government: From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions) (Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer) After Suntech IPO (2005), “uncoordinated , irrational exuberance ” creates “Third Wave” UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

  49. Chinese Government Involvement Si prices . Local Government: From 1994, strong incentives to promote local industry development (taxes, promotions) (Suntech still had to approach many before getting backer) Oversupply After Suntech IPO (2005), “uncoordinated , irrational exuberance ” creates “Third Wave” UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

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