Where is the solar industry headed Martin A. Green UNSW Sydney - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics “Where is the solar industry headed” Martin A. Green UNSW Sydney November 2017 UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

PV now cheapest! UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

100 1998 2008 & soon even cheaper! ‘experimental’ phase 10 ‘industry - development’ US$/W phase 1 $0.33/W 2017 ‘mass - production’ phase 0.1 Cumulative PV installed (MW) 1 Terrawatt (TW) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics Growth 2015/2017 2015 forecasts Projected: 24% CONSERVATIVE! Actual: 85% UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

Australian Centre for Advanced Photovoltaics NATURE ENERGY 2, 17140 (2017) LUT 2017 Cost reductions continue until 2050 Present costs ÷ 4 Present costs ÷ 2 LUT 2017 5 TW Bloomberg 2015 2015 forecasts CONSERVATIVE! UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight Lappeenranta University of Technology - LUT

Can PV make a major impact on global warming? Unresolved problem! 1 Terrawatt (TW) PV UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

Can PV make a major impact on global warming? Unresolved problem! 1 Terrawatt (TW) PV UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

25 PERC UNSW PERC cell First 20% cell 50% relative 20 UNSW UNSW Silicon solar cell efficiency, % Efficiency, % 34 15 years 10 5 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

Cell technology BSF HJ IBC PERC UNSW � Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

Cell technology BSF HJ IBC PERC UNSW � Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

24.4% Cell technology BSF HJ IBC PERC UNSW � Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

24.4% Cell technology 24.0 ~ 0.6%/year (abs.) 23.0 22.0 BSF HJ IBC Jan 2017 Jan 2015 Jan 2016 Jan 2018 PERC UNSW � Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

Ingots UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

Ingots UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

100 1998 2008 1..& soon even cheaper! ‘experimental’ phase 10 ‘industry - development’ US$/W phase 1 $0.34/W 2017 ‘mass - production’ phase 0.1 1 Terrawatt Cumulative PV installed (MW) Accelerate PV cost reductions: (TW) 1. Perfect production & transfer PERC UNSW 2. Increase performance by 50% by stacking cells Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

c-Si tandem: efficiency gain 25% PERC Free choice or Si UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

c-Si tandem: efficiency gain 41%? 25% PERC Free choice or Si UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

c-Si tandem: efficiency gain Free choice or Si UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

c-Si tandem: efficiency gain Artificial silicon! Free choice or Si UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

Earth abundant, non-toxic (CZTS: Cu 2 ZnSnS 4 ) UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

Solar paint UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

Solar Armour UNSW Masuda et al., Solar Energy 146 (2017) 523 Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW Masuda et al., Solar Energy 146 (2017) 523 Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

top view Parallel connection UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight

Summary . PV can make a big impact on global CO2 emissions . Standard silicon cells will allow very low costs . Stacked cells on silicon allow even lower costs . My research – stacked cells, module T, solar paint ! UNSW Photovoltaics - Electricity from Sunlight