C LIMATE AND M IGRATION : U NPACKING T HE ROLE OF S OCIAL N ETWORKS - PDF document

C LIMATE AND M IGRATION : U NPACKING T HE ROLE OF S OCIAL N ETWORKS Jacqueline Meijer-Irons and Sara R. Curran Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of Washington Seattle,WA USA Paper Presented to the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population Cape Town, South Africa October 29 – November 4, 2017

1. Introduction Climate-related events, such as drought and floods, may increase in severity and frequency under current climate projections. Recent climate extremes have revealed areas of vulnerability, where a lack of consistent rainfall has impacted local food systems and agricultural productivity (IPCC 2014). These disruptions are of particular concern for farmers in the developing world who rely on rainfed agriculture for a significant part of their income. Yet, not all households experience climatic stress in the same way; the extent to which a household is impacted depends, in part on how vulnerable a household is to the economic impacts of environmental stress. This vulnerability, in turn, can be mitigated by a household member’s ability to migrate and engage in off-farm employment, a form of adaptation (McLeman and Smit 2006). Migrant remittances sent home are used to diversify household income and reduce risk (Bebbington 1999; de Haan 1999; de Haas 2010; Kniveton et al. 2008; Stark and Bloom 1985; Stark and Taylor 1989). A growing body of research argues that one consequence of increasing uncertainty will be the additional influence of environmental stressors on existing systems of internal labor migration from rural to urban areas, rather than creating new migrant streams (Black et al. 2011a; Black et al. 2011b). However, recent scholarship is mixed on the relationship between migration and the environment, demonstrating that migration response to the environment is highly contextual, depending on cropping patterns and cultural norms about who engages in migration (Gray and Mueller 2012; Kubik and Maurel 2016). In several studies, the type of migration a household member might typically engage in is altered in response to the environment; for example, timing of a first migration, or a shift away from international migration towards more local or internal migration (Gray 2009; Gray 2010; Gray and Billsborrow 2013; Gray and Mueller 2012a; Gray 1

and Mueller 2012b; Findley 1994; Henry et al. 2004; Massey et al. 2010; Nawrotzki et al. 2015). In other cases, the odds of migration increase, but only after a sustained period of exposure to environmental stress, and then only for specific groups of migrants, suggesting households might adapt in place until they decide to engage in migration (Curran and Meijer-Irons 2014; Nawrotzki and DeWaard 2016). Finally, in some studies, the odds of migration declines when people in the study area experience degraded environmental conditions (Dillon et al. 2001); still other works finds the odds of migration increase in response to positive environmental conditions. In this latter study, households rely on natural capital returns to fund labor migration that can further supplement household income (Gray 2011; Gray and Billsborrow 2013). Recent scholarship proposes another way to conceptualize the role that the environment plays in migration decisions: consider, along with main effects of the environment, how the environment interacts more explicitly with specific drivers of migration (Black et al. 2011a). A recent review of the literature on migration in Less Developed Countries finds that while many studies report a relationship between rainfall and migration, few empirical papers analyze how changes in climatic conditions either strengthen or weaken drivers of migration, particularly economic drivers (Lilleor and van den Broeck 2011). Social networks in the origin and destination play a key role in facilitating migration, by lowering the costs of migration, and providing information to would-be migrants, but the role of social networks has not been fully elaborated in studies linking migration and the environment (Adamo and de Sherbinin 2011; Bardsley and Hugo 2010; Curran 2002). Recent work suggests that social networks can also serve as a key factor in facilitating migration in response to climate change, whereby people with access to social networks in the destination are more likely to engage in climate-induced movements (Bardsley and Hugo 2010). On the other hand, a recent article examining the 2

relationship between social networks, climate change, and international migration out of Mexico, Nawrotzki et al. considers the potential amplification effect of social networks, but the authors also consider the dampening or suppression effect that social networks might produce (2015). In this latter case, they find that community level social capital suppresses migratory response to the impact of climate shocks positing that social networks provide the resources and opportunities to foster resilience and adaption in place and therefore mitigate the need to migrate (Adger 2003). This current study expands on the work conducted on international migration out of Mexico in response to climate shocks, situating the analyses within the context of access to social capital and internal migration. In this study, we investigate the role that migrant social capital plays in migrant selectivity in response to environmental shocks, net of other drivers of migration. We also consider the interaction of environmental shocks and social capital, measured at the individual, household, and community level accumulated prior to the migration event. We use the Nang Rong data, a unique panel data set from NE Thailand that measures internal migration over a 16-year period. Nang Rong is a good choice for a study site because of the history of internal migration in the area, a former frontier region that has undergone considerable land use and population changes during the latter half of the twentieth century (Entwisle et al. 2008). Nang Rong has also been the focus of extensive study and much is known about the motivations and consequences of circular labor migration from the area. Considerable quantitative and qualitative data have also been collected on the environment in Nang Rong (Curran et al. 2005; Entwistle et al. 2016; Garip 2008; Van Wey 2003; Rindfuss et al. 2007). Seasonal migration is not uncommon in Nang Rong, where the rainy, monsoon season is often followed by drought-like conditions that require people to migrate in search of non-agricultural 3

labor. Further, several studies using these data find a significant influence of migrant networks on migration response following economic and environmental shocks (Curran et al. 2005; Curran and Meijer-Irons 2014; Curran et al. 2016; Entwistle et al. 2016; Garip and Curran 2009). We hypothesize that access to migrant social capital can either increase or decrease migratory response to climate shocks. In the first case, it might be that access to social networks and cumulative experience makes an additional move due more feasible and less costly to a household. On the other hand, established social networks might translate into access to remittances and other resources that allow for in situ adaptation that (Adger 2003). Doing so, we add to the growing empirical literature that finds that migration in response to climate stress is complex, and often influenced by underlying migration systems already present in a given area. 1. Data and Methods 2.1 Nang Rong Migration Data Our migration data come from the Nang Rong Surveys, a longitudinal panel data collection effort conducted by the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina and the Institute for Population and Social Research at Mahidol University in Thailand. 1 We employ the first three waves of data (collected in 1984, 1994, and 2000) for our analyses. The 1984 data collection was a census of all households and individuals residing in 51 villages within Nang Rong. It included information on individual demographic data, household assets and village institutions and agricultural, natural, economic, social, and health resources. Further, village-level data were collected from all of the villages in Nang Rong district. The 1994 survey 1 The data and information about the surveys are available at http://www.cpc.unc.edu/projects/nangrong/ 4