ASSE SSME NT of L ONG- T E RM T RE ND of T URKE YS GRE E - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
ASSE SSME NT of L ONG- T E RM T RE ND of T URKE YS GRE E NHOUSE GAS E MISSIONS USING MANN KE NDAL L T E ST F atma ztr k Abant zzet Baysal University, Faculty of Engineering and Ar c hite c tur e , E nvir onme
F atma Öztür k
Abant İzzet Baysal University, Faculty of Engineering and
Ar c hite c tur e , E nvir
ngine e r ing De par tme nt, T ur ke y Visiting Sc ie ntist as Post- Doc tor al Stude nt NOAA, E SRL , Che mic al Sc ie nc e s Division, CO
Intr
– What is Gr
e e nhouse E ffe c t?
– Gr
e e nhouse gase s (GHGs)
– Kyoto Pr
– T
ur ke y’s Position in Kyoto Pr
Me thodology
– Mann Ke ndall te st – Se n’s slope e stimator
Re sults
– GHG- spe c ific tr
e nds
– Se c tor
e nds
– Compar
ison with othe r c ountr ie s Conc lusion
Wha t is Gre e nhouse E ffe c t?
L ife time (ye ar s) Global War ming Pote ntial (GWP) time hor izon 20 ye ar s 100 ye ar s 500 ye ar s Me thane (CH4) 12 72 25 7.6 Nitr
(N2O) 114 310 298 153 PF C- 14 (CF
4)
50,000 5,210 7,390 11,200 PF C- 116 (C 2F
6)
10,000 8,630 12,200 18,200 Sulfur he xafluor ide (SF
6)
3200 16,300 22,800 32,600 Sour c e : “IPCC F
th Asse ssme nt Re por t: Climate Change 2007”
T he Kyoto pr
national tr e aty r e late d to the Unite d Nations F r ame wor k Conve ntion on Climate Change (UNF CCC or F CCC) Aim is to ac hie ve stabilization of gr e e nhouse gas c onc e ntr ations in the atmosphe r e at a le ve l that would pr e ve nt dange r
anthr
fe r e nc e with the c limate syste m T he Kyoto Pr
the r e duc tion of four gr e e nhouse gase s: CO 2, CH4, N2O, SF
6), and
two gr
Cs and PF Cs) By 2011, 192 c ountr ie s have r atifie d the pr
initially adopte d for use on 11 De c e mbe r 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and whic h e nte r e d into for c e on 16 F e br uar y 2005 Unde r Kyoto, industr ialize d c ountr ie s agr e e d to r e duc e the ir c olle c tive GHG e missions by 5.2% c ompar e d to the ye ar 1990
KYOT O PROT OCOL
T ur ke y’s Position in Kyoto Pr
T urke y wa s initia lly liste d in both Anne xe s I a nd II of the UNF CC in 1992 She wa s g ra nte d its omission from Anne x II a nd re ma ine d in Anne x I in 7th Confe re nc e of Pa rtie s, Ma rra ke c h, 2001 She ha s sig ne d UNF CCC on Ma y 24, 2004 a nd ra tifie d Kyoto Protoc ol (KP) on F e b 5, 2009 E urope a n Union (E U) a ims a t re duc ing e nvironme nta l polluta nts 30 % be low the 1990 le ve ls by 2020 KP de ma nds the re duc tion of GHG e missions to 5.2 % lowe r tha n the 1990 le ve l during 2008- 2012
Global Map of ANNEX-I Countries btw 1990-2008 including LULUCF
T ur ke y, Ic e land, Spain, Por tugal, Austr alia, … .
Shar e s of Wor ld Gr e e nhouse Gas E missions in 2005
Sour c e : Erdoğdu, E., Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 14 (2010), 1111- 1117
ME T HODOL OGY
A
page btw 1990 and 2008
RE ND ANAL YSIS
Sen’s Slope Estimator
e ase in total GHG e missions (without L UL UCF ) Se c tor
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year GHG Emission (Million Tones CO2 Eq.) Energy Industrial Processes Agriculture Waste
− = + =
1 n 1 k n 1 k j j
k
> − − = − > − = − 1 1 ) sgn(
k j k j k j k j
x x if x x if x x if x x
MANN KE NDAL L T E ST :
ame tr ic te st to de te c t tr e nd
t, 1987)
SE NS) by F innish Me te or
WHE RE ;
s
s ` j` and ` k` , j>k, r e spe c tive ly
1
+ − − + − =
= q p p p p
t t t n n n S VAR
1
) 5 2 )( 1 ( ) 5 2 )( 1 ( 18 1 ) (
< + = > − = ) ( 1 ) ( 1 S if S VAR S S if S if S VAR S Z
2 3
q= number of tied (equal value) groups, tp= number of data values in the pth group
H0: no- tr e nd H1:monotonic inc r e asing or de c r e asing tr e nd H0 r e je c te d if Z > Z1-α/ 2
4
T E ST OF T RE ND MAKE SE NS pe r for ms c alc ulations at four diffe r e nt signific anc e le ve ls (α=0.001, 0.01,0.05 and 0.1)
k j i
SE N’s SL OPE ME T HOD:
Q i value s for e ac h data pair ar e c alc ulate d and me dian value is take n as final slope of tr e nd
r ue slope of e xisting tr e nd (c hange pe r ye ar )
ame tr ic me thod
t,1987)
SE NS) by F innish Me te or
val ar
slope
T OT AL GHG E MISSIONS
100 200 300 400 500 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8
Year GHG (Mtonnes CO2 eq.)
GHG Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max
e asing tr e nd with α=0.001 signific anc e le ve l
he r ate of inc r e ase (Se n’s Slope ) is 9.75 Mt/ ye ar
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year
CO2 Emission (Mtonnes) CO2 Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Year
CH4 Emission (Mtonnes CO2 eq.)
CH4 Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max
CO2:
Rate of inc r e ase 8.44 Mt/ yr @ α=0.001 signific anc e le ve l
CH4:
Rate of inc r e ase 0.9 Mt/ yr @ α=0.001 sig. le ve l
5 10 15 20 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year N2O Emission (Mtonnes CO2 Eq.)
N20 Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max
N20:
Rate of inc r e ase 0.035 Mt/ yr @ > α=0.1 signific anc e le ve l
SF6:
Rate of inc r e ase 0.048 Mt/ yr @ α=0.05 signific anc e le ve l
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year SF6 Emission (Mtonnes CO2 Eq.)
SF6 Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf. max
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1 9 9 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 3 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 5 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 7 1 9 9 8 1 9 9 9 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 Year PFCs Emission (Mtonnes CO2 Eq.)
PFCs Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max
PFCs: Rate of de c r
e ase 0.010 Mt/ yr @ α=0.01 signific anc e le ve l
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 9 9 1 9 9 2 1 9 9 4 1 9 9 6 1 9 9 8 2 2 2 2 4 2 6 2 8
Year Mtonnes CO2 Eq.
Industry Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year Mtonnes CO2 Eq.
Energy Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max
Industry:
Rate of inc r e ase 0.700 Mt/ yr @ α=0.001 signific anc e le ve l
Energy:
Rate of inc r e ase 7.9 Mt/ yr @ α=0.001 signific anc e le ve l
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year Mtonnes CO2 Eq.
Waste Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Year Mtonnes CO2 Eq.
Agriculture Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max
Waste:
Rate of inc r e ase 1.23 Mt/ yr @ α=0.001 signific anc e le ve l
Agriculture:
Rate of de c r e ase 0.308 Mt/ yr @ α=0.001 sig. le ve l
URKE Y:9.7
AL Y: 3.8
E CE : 2.0
UGAL : 1.5
UPWARD T RE ND (Mt/ yr ) DOWNWARD T RE ND (Mt/ yr )
: 17.8
RMANY: 11.6
AT BRIT AIN: 7.6
AND: 4.0
100 200 300 400 500 600 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012 2015 2020
Year ar
T
mission (Mtonne s CO 2 E q.) G HG Se n's Slope Base Ye ar
Commitme nt Pe r iod
e mains same , GHG’s for 2012, 2015, and 2020
plus in GHG e missions as c ompar e d to KP c ase (2008- 2012)
plus in GHG e missions as c ompar e d to E U c ase (2020)
te c hnologie s
gy te c hnologie s
ffic ie nt e ne r gy c onve r sion te c hnologie s
INCL UDE : NOT INCL UDE :
bon taxation
mission tr ading
ge t for e mission r e duc tion
T
e ase d with a r ate of 9.75 Mt/ ye ar btw 1990- 2008 Highe st inc r e ase obse r ve d for CO 2; CH4, N20, SF
6 inc r
e ase d De c r e asing tr e nd was de te c te d for PF Cs E missions fr
y, e ne r gy and waste inc r e ase d; while those of agr ic ultur e de c r e ase d Se c ond highe st r ate of inc r e ase was de te c te d for T ur ke y afte r Spain in E ur
F utur e e mission sc e nar ios 230 % sur plus in GHG e missions as c ompar e d to KP c ase (2008- 2012) ~370 % sur plus in GHG e missions as c ompar e d to E U c ase (2020)
t, R.O., (1987), Statistic al me thods for e nir
pollution monitor ing
th Asse ssme nt Re por t: Climate Change 2007
14 (2010), 1111- 1117
CCC we b page : http:/ / unfc c c .int/ ghg_data/ ite ms/ 3800.php
innish Me te or
SE NS e xc e l te mplate