ASSE SSME NT of L ONG- T E RM T RE ND of T URKE YS GRE E - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ASSE SSME NT of L ONG- T E RM T RE ND of T URKE Y’S GRE E NHOUSE GAS E MISSIONS USING MANN KE NDAL L T E ST F atma Öztür k Abant İzzet Baysal University, Faculty of Engineering and Ar c hite c tur e , E nvir onme ntal E ngine e r ing De par tme nt, T ur ke y Visiting Sc ie ntist as Post- Doc tor al Stude nt NOAA, E SRL , Che mic al Sc ie nc e s Division, CO

CONT E NT Intr oduc tion – What is Gr e e nhouse E ffe c t? – Gr e e nhouse gase s (GHGs) – Kyoto Pr otoc ol – T ur ke y’s Position in Kyoto Pr otoc ol Me thodology – Mann Ke ndall te st – Se n’s slope e stimator Re sults – GHG- spe c ific tr e nds – Se c tor - spe c ific tr e nds – Compar ison with othe r c ountr ie s Conc lusion

Wha t is Gre e nhouse E ffe c t?

Major Gr e e nhouse Gase s Global War ming Pote ntial (GWP) L ife time time hor izon (ye ar s) 20 ye ar s 100 ye ar s 500 ye ar s Me thane (CH 4 ) 12 72 25 7.6 Nitr ous oxide (N 2 O) 114 310 298 153 PF C- 14 (CF 4 ) 50,000 5,210 7,390 11,200 PF C- 116 (C 2 F 6 ) 10,000 8,630 12,200 18,200 Sulfur he xafluor ide (SF 6 ) 3200 16,300 22,800 32,600 Sour c e : “IPCC F our th Asse ssme nt Re por t: Climate Change 2007”

KYOT O PROT OCOL T he Kyoto pr otoc ol is an inte r national tr e aty r e late d to the Unite d Nations F r ame wor k Conve ntion on Climate Change (UNF CCC or F CCC) Aim is to ac hie ve stabilization of gr e e nhouse gas c onc e ntr ations in the atmosphe r e at a le ve l that would pr e ve nt dange r ous anthr opoge nic (man-made ) inte r fe r e nc e with the c limate syste m T he Kyoto Pr otoc ol e stablishe s le gally binding c ommitme nts for the r e duc tion of four gr e e nhouse gase s: CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, SF 6 ), and two gr oups of gase s (HF Cs and PF Cs) By 2011, 192 c ountr ie s have r atifie d the pr otoc ol, whic h was initially adopte d for use on 11 De c e mbe r 1997 in Kyoto, Japan and whic h e nte r e d into for c e on 16 F e br uar y 2005 Unde r Kyoto, industr ialize d c ountr ie s agr e e d to r e duc e the ir c olle c tive GHG e missions by 5.2% c ompar e d to the ye ar 1990

T ur ke y’s Position in Kyoto Pr otoc ol T urke y wa s initia lly liste d in both Anne xe s I a nd II of the UNF CC in 1992 She wa s g ra nte d its omission from Anne x II a nd re ma ine d in Anne x I in 7 th Confe re nc e of Pa rtie s, Ma rra ke c h, 2001 She ha s sig ne d UNF CCC on Ma y 24, 2004 a nd ra tifie d Kyoto Protoc ol (KP) on F e b 5, 2009 E urope a n Union (E U) a ims a t re duc ing e nvironme nta l polluta nts 30 % be low the 1990 le ve ls by 2020 KP de ma nds the re duc tion of GHG e missions to 5.2 % lowe r tha n the 1990 le ve l during 2008- 2012

Global Map of ANNEX-I Countries btw 1990-2008 including LULUCF T ur ke y, Ic e land, Spain, Por tugal, Austr alia, … .

Shar e s of Wor ld Gr e e nhouse Gas E missions in 2005 c e : Erdoğdu, E., Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 14 Sour (2010), 1111- 1117

ME T HODOL OGY • SOURCE of DAT A • GHG emission data for ANNEX-I countries from UNFCCC web page btw 1990 and 2008 • Yearly mean values of sector-specific and GHG-specific data • GHG’s:CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, PFCs, SF 6 • Sectors: Energy, Industrial Processes, Agriculture, Waste • Excluding LULUCF (Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry) • T RE ND ANAL YSIS • Non-parametric trend analysis tests: Mann-Kendall Test & Sen’s Slope Estimator • Excel Template by Finish Meteorological Service

Se c tor - spe c ific GHG e missions be twe e n 1990 and 2008 Energy Industrial Processes Agriculture Waste (Million Tones CO 2 Eq.) 400 350 GHG Emission 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year • 96 % inc r e ase in total GHG e missions (without L UL UCF )

ME T HODOL OGY MANN KE NDAL L T E ST : • Non- par ame tr ic te st to de te c t tr e nd • Mann (1945) and Ke ndall (1975) (Gilbe r t, 1987) • An e xc e l te mplate (MAKE SE NS) by F innish Me te or ologic al Institute 1  − > − 1 0 if x x n 1 n ∑ ∑ j k  = − − = − sgn(x ) = S x  sgn( x x ) 0 if x x 0 j k j k j k  − − > = = + 1 0 if x x  k 1 j k 1 j k WHE RE ; • n= numbe r of ye ar s • x j & x k = annual value s in ye ar s ` j` and ` k` , j>k, r e spe c tive ly

ME T HODOL OGY 2   q 1 ∑ = − + − − +   VAR ( S ) n ( n 1 )( 2 n 5 ) t ( t 1 )( 2 t 5 ) p p p 18   = p 1 q= number of tied (equal value) groups, t p = number of data values in the p th group 3 T E ST OF T RE ND 4 −  S 1 > if S 0  H 0 : no- tr e nd VAR ( S )   H 1 :monotonic inc r e asing or de c r e asing = =  Z 0 if S 0 tr e nd  + S 1  < if S 0 H 0 r e je c te d if Z > Z 1- α / 2   VAR ( S ) MAKE SE NS pe r for ms c alc ulations at four diffe r e nt signific anc e le ve ls ( α =0.001, 0.01,0.05 and 0.1)

ME T HODOL OGY SE N’s SL OPE ME T HOD: = + ( ) f t Qt B • T r ue slope of e xisting tr e nd (c hange pe r ye ar ) • Se n’s non- par ame tr ic me thod − x x • Se n (1968) (Gilbe r t,1987) = j k Q • An e xc e l te mplate (MAKE SE NS) by − i j k F innish Me te or ologic al Institute • Confide nc e inte r val ar ound the Q i value s for e ac h data pair ar e slope c alc ulate d and me dian value is take n as final slope of tr e nd

T OT AL GHG E MISSIONS GHG Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max 500 GHG (Mtonnes CO2 eq.) 400 300 200 100 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year • Inc r e asing tr e nd with α =0.001 signific anc e le ve l • T he r ate of inc r e ase (Se n’s Slope ) is 9.75 Mt/ ye ar

GHG-specific Trend btw 1990-2008 CO2 Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max CO 2 : CO2 Emission (Mtonnes) 350 300 Rate of inc r e ase 8.44 Mt/ yr 250 200 150 @ α =0.001 signific anc e le ve l 100 50 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year CH4 Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max CH4 Emission (Mtonnes CO2 eq.) 70 60 CH 4 : 50 40 30 Rate of inc r e ase 0.9 Mt/ yr 20 10 0 @ α =0.001 sig. le ve l 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year

GHG-specific Trend btw 1990-2008 N20 Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max N2O Emission (Mtonnes CO2 Eq.) N 2 0: 20 15 Rate of inc r e ase 0.035 Mt/ yr 10 @ > α =0.1 signific anc e le ve l 5 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year SF6 Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf. max SF6 Emission (Mtonnes CO2 Eq.) 1.4 SF 6 : 1.2 1 0.8 Rate of inc r e ase 0.048 Mt/ yr 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 @ α =0.05 signific anc e le ve l 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year

GHG-specific Trend btw 1990-2008 PFCs Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max PFCs Emission (Mtonnes CO2 Eq.) 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Year @ α =0.01 signific anc e le ve l PFCs: Rate of de c r e ase 0.010 Mt/ yr

Se c tor - spe c ific T r e nd btw 1990- 2008 Industry Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max Industry: 35 Rate of inc r e ase 0.700 Mt/ yr Mtonnes CO 2 Eq. 30 25 20 @ α =0.001 signific anc e le ve l 15 10 5 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 Year Energy Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max Mtonnes CO 2 Eq. 350 Energy: 300 250 200 Rate of inc r e ase 7.9 Mt/ yr 150 100 50 @ α =0.001 signific anc e le ve l 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year

Se c tor - spe c ific T r e nd btw 1990- 2008 Waste Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max Waste: 50 Mtonnes CO 2 Eq. 45 40 Rate of inc r e ase 1.23 Mt/ yr 35 30 25 20 @ α =0.001 signific anc e le ve l 15 10 5 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year Agriculture Sen's Slope 99 % Conf.min 99 % Conf.max 35 Mtonnes CO 2 Eq. 30 Agriculture: 25 20 15 Rate of de c r e ase 0.308 Mt/ yr 10 5 @ α =0.001 sig. le ve l 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Year

Compar ison with othe r E ur ope an c ountr ie s UPWARD T RE ND (Mt/ yr ) DOWNWARD T RE ND (Mt/ yr ) 1. SPAIN: 10 1. UKRAINE : 17.8 2. T URKE Y:9.7 2. GE RMANY: 11.6 3. IT AL Y: 3.8 3. GRE AT BRIT AIN: 7.6 4. GRE E CE : 2.0 4. POL AND: 4.0 5. PORT UGAL : 1.5 5. ROMANIA: 2.5