Califor Califor nias F nias F our our th Climate th Climate - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Califor Califor nia’s F nia’s F our our th Climate th Climate Change Asse ssme nt Change Asse ssme nt Bo a rd o f Dire c to rs Me e ting Bo a rd o f Dire c to rs Me e ting Ma rc h 5, 2019 Ma rc h 5, 2019 I I te m 6 te m 6

Ove r Ove r vie w vie w 1. 1. Clima te Cha ng e & Sc ie nc e Clima te Cha ng e & Sc ie nc e 2. 2. Ca lifo rnia Asse ssme nts Ca lifo rnia Asse ssme nts 3. 3. Pro je c tio ns (mo de ling & re sults) Pro je c tio ns (mo de ling & re sults) 4. 4. L L A Re g io n a nd Sa nta Cla rita A Re g io n a nd Sa nta Cla rita 5. 5. Wa te r I Wa te r I mpa c ts mpa c ts a . a . Wa te r supply a nd de ma nd Wa te r supply a nd de ma nd b . b . I I mpo rte d Wa te r mpo rte d Wa te r c . c . Wa te rshe d Wa te rshe d d. d. Wa te r q ua lity Wa te r q ua lity e . e . Gro undwa te r ma na g e me nt Gro undwa te r ma na g e me nt 6. 6. Ada pta tio n Ada pta tio n

Not c ove r Not c ove r e d e d Sa nta Ana Winds Sa nta Ana Winds • • Clo uds Clo uds • • Se a L Se a L e ve l Rise e ve l Rise • • Humidity Humidity • • Air Qua lity Air Qua lity • • E E ne rg y ne rg y • • T T ra nspo rta tio n ra nspo rta tio n • • L L a nd Use & De ve lo pme nt a nd Use & De ve lo pme nt • • E E me rg e nc y Ma na g e me nt me rg e nc y Ma na g e me nt • • Pub lic He a lth Pub lic He a lth • •

Why is unde r Why is unde r standing standing c limate c hange c limate c hange impor impor tant? tant? Climate c hange will affe c t Climate c hange will affe c t ne arly all aspe c ts o f life , ne arly all aspe c ts o f life , inc luding e c o syste ms, the built inc luding e c o syste ms, the built e nviro nme nt, and public e nviro nme nt, and public he alth. he alth.

Natur Natur al al Climate Climate Change Change Mila nko vitc h Cyc le s- Mila nko vitc h Cyc le s- Na tura l wa rming Na tura l wa rming a nd c o o ling c lima te a nd c o o ling c lima te c yc le s c yc le s

97% o f c lima te sc ie nc e e xpe rts a nd 97% o f Unc ha rte d T e rrito ry c lima te sc ie nc e pa pe rs (12,000) a g re e wa rming is ma n-ma de Conc e ntr Conc e ntr ation ation of Co2 in the of Co2 in the atmosphe r atmosphe r e e ove r ove r the past the past fe w hundr fe w hundr e d e d thousand thousand ye ar ye ar s. s. NASA/ NOAA NASA/ NOAA

Climate Climate Pr Pr oje c tions oje c tions Glo b a l Clima te Glo b a l Clima te Mo de ls (GCM’ s) – Mo de ls (GCM’ s) – mo de l o f ho w the mo de l o f ho w the E E a rth’ s a tmo sphe re , a rth’ s a tmo sphe re , o c e a ns, la nd o c e a ns, la nd surfa c e s a nd se a ic e surfa c e s a nd se a ic e inte ra c t to a ffe c t the inte ra c t to a ffe c t the c lima te . c lima te .

Climate Climate Pr Pr oje c tions oje c tions Re pre se nta tive Re pre se nta tive Co nc e ntra tio n Co nc e ntra tio n Pa thwa ys (RCP’ s) Pa thwa ys (RCP’ s) “Gre e n Ho use Ga sse s” “Gre e n Ho use Ga sse s”

Califor Califor nia’s Climate Change Asse ssme nts nia’s Climate Change Asse ssme nts

F F our our th Asse ssme nt: Suppor th Asse ssme nt: Suppor ting ting Adaptation and R Adaptation and R e silie nc e e silie nc e   Sta te wide Re po rts Sta te wide Re po rts  Summa ry Re po rt  Summa ry Re po rt  Ca lifo rnia ’ s Oc e a n a nd Co a st  Ca lifo rnia ’ s Oc e a n a nd Co a st  T  T rib a l a nd I rib a l a nd I ndig e no us Co mmunitie s within Ca lifo rnia ndig e no us Co mmunitie s within Ca lifo rnia  Clima te Justic e  Clima te Justic e   Re g io na l Re po rts (9) Re g io na l Re po rts (9)   T T e c hnic a l Re po rts (44) e c hnic a l Re po rts (44)  Ag ric ulture , Bio dive rsity, E  Ag ric ulture , Bio dive rsity, E ne rg y, F ne rg y, F o re sts a nd Wildfire , o re sts a nd Wildfire , Go ve rna nc e , Oc e a ns & Co a sts, Pro je c tio ns, Da ta se ts, a nd T Go ve rna nc e , Oc e a ns & Co a sts, Pro je c tio ns, Da ta se ts, a nd T o o ls, o o ls, Pub lic He a lth, Wa te r (10) Pub lic He a lth, Wa te r (10)   T T o o ls o o ls  Sta te po rta l fo r a c c e ssing c lima te c ha ng e pro je c tio ns  Sta te po rta l fo r a c c e ssing c lima te c ha ng e pro je c tio ns  He a lth info rme d he a t thre sho lds fo r c o mmunitie s  He a lth info rme d he a t thre sho lds fo r c o mmunitie s  Co a sta l flo o ding sc e na rio s  Co a sta l flo o ding sc e na rio s

CA Climate CA Climate Pr Pr oje c tions oje c tions “These findings are profoundly serious and will continue to guide us as we confront the apocalyptic threat of irreversible climate change.” – Gov. Jerry Brown

L L os Ange le s os Ange le s R R e gion R e gion R e por e por t t K K e y pro je c te d c lima te c ha ng e s: e y pro je c te d c lima te c ha ng e s: 1. 1. Co ntinue d future wa rming (Avg . ma x te mps) Co ntinue d future wa rming (Avg . ma x te mps) -4-5º F -4-5º F inc re a se b y mid-c e ntury inc re a se b y mid-c e ntury -5-8º de g re e F -5-8º de g re e F inc re a se b y la te -c e ntury inc re a se b y la te -c e ntury 2. 2. # e xtre me te mp da ys to inc re a se a s we ll a s # e xtre me te mp da ys to inc re a se a s we ll a s te mpe ra ture s te mpe ra ture s 3. 3. Pre c ipita tio n – dry a nd we t e xtre me s e xpe c te d to Pre c ipita tio n – dry a nd we t e xtre me s e xpe c te d to inc re a se inc re a se 4. 4. Se a le ve l rise Se a le ve l rise - - 1-2 ft inc re a se b y mid-c e ntury 1-2 ft inc re a se b y mid-c e ntury - - 8-10 ft inc re a se b y e nd o f c e ntury 8-10 ft inc re a se b y e nd o f c e ntury 5. 5. Wildfire inc re a se s Wildfire inc re a se s

L L A R A R e gion e gion Pr Pr e c ipitation e c ipitation

Santa Clar Santa Clar ita E ita E xtr xtr e me He at Pr e me He at Pr e dic tions – e dic tions – Days ove r Days ove r 103.8º F 103.8º F HI GHE R WAT E R DE MANDS

GCM’ s pro je c t > 80% Santa Clar Santa Clar ita ita c ha nc e o f a E E xte nde d Dr xte nde d Dr ought ought multide c a da l dro ug ht Sc e nar Sc e nar ios ios during 2050-2099 unde r RCP 8.5

Wate r Wate r Impac ts Impac ts Wa te r De ma nd Gro undwa te r Wa te rshe d Ma na g e me nt SCVWA I mpo rte d Wa te r Qua lity Wa te r Wa te r Supply

Wate r Wate r Supply Supply Manage me nt Change s Manage me nt Change s  T  T iming o f supply iming o f supply  Re duc e d wa te r a va ila b ility  Re duc e d wa te r a va ila b ility  Wa te r supply po rtfo lio  Wa te r supply po rtfo lio  Ne w supply o ptio ns  Ne w supply o ptio ns BY 2050 WAT E R SUPPL Y F ROM SNOWPACK I S PROJE CT E D T O DE CL I NE BY T WO-T HI RDS

Impor Impor te d Wate r te d Wate r  I  I nc re a se d flo o ds nc re a se d flo o ds  Re se rvo ir o pe ra tio n risks  Re se rvo ir o pe ra tio n risks  ma na g ing mo re e xtre me  ma na g ing mo re e xtre me ra infa ll e ve nts a nd ra infa ll e ve nts a nd pre ve nting flo o ds pre ve nting flo o ds  Ca rryo ve r sto ra g e de c line  Ca rryo ve r sto ra g e de c line  I  I nc re a se d dro ug ht nc re a se d dro ug ht  Re duc e d wa te r a va ila b ility  Re duc e d wa te r a va ila b ility

CA De lta CA De lta Hig he r se a le ve ls Hig he r se a le ve ls • • L L e ve e fa ilure e ve e fa ilure • • Gre a te r flo o ds Gre a te r flo o ds • • Sa ltwa te r intrusio n Sa ltwa te r intrusio n • • Unc e rta intie s in ma na g e me nt Unc e rta intie s in ma na g e me nt • • o f c ritic a l ha b ita t o f c ritic a l ha b ita t Unc e rta intie s in ma na g e me nt Unc e rta intie s in ma na g e me nt • • o f c o nve ya nc e a re a s o f c o nve ya nc e a re a s

Gr Gr oundwate r oundwate r Manage me nt Manage me nt Critic a l so urc e Critic a l so urc e • • I I nc re a se d g ro undwa te r sto ra g e nc re a se d g ro undwa te r sto ra g e • • Ma na g e fluc tua tio ns (drie r dry's Ma na g e fluc tua tio ns (drie r dry's • • a nd we tte r we ts) a nd we tte r we ts) Shift fro m vo lunta ry to Shift fro m vo lunta ry to • • ma nda to ry re q uire me nts ma nda to ry re q uire me nts Gro undwa te r dro ug ht re se rve s Gro undwa te r dro ug ht re se rve s • •

Wate r Wate r De mand De mand Change s Change s E E va po tra nspira tio n inc re a se va po tra nspira tio n inc re a se • • Urb a n la ndsc a pe – CRI Urb a n la ndsc a pe – CRI T T I I CAL CAL • • Wa te r use b e ha vio r Wa te r use b e ha vio r • • Without adaptation de mand inc r e ase s

Wate r Wate r E E ne r ne r gy E gy E ffic ie nc y ffic ie nc y F uture o f SCV Wa te r Ca rb o n Ne utra l