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AIM AIM I ntroduction of energy scenarios in I ntroduction of energy scenarios in Thailand and future plan 15 th AIM International Workshop, NIES, Japan Feb 20 2010 Feb 20, 2010 Bundit Limmeechokchai Sirindhorn International Institute of

  1. AIM AIM I ntroduction of energy scenarios in I ntroduction of energy scenarios in Thailand and future plan 15 th AIM International Workshop, NIES, Japan Feb 20 2010 Feb 20, 2010 Bundit Limmeechokchai Sirindhorn International Institute of Technology (SIIT) Thammasat University (TU)

  2. Thailand’s GHG Inventory 1994 y (Source: IPCC, Thailand NC1) 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 2

  3. THAI LAND Area - Total 513,115 km 2 (50 th ) or 198,115 sq mi ( ) q - Water (% ) 0.4 (2,230 km 2 ) Population p - 2010 estimate 63,723,953 (21 st ) - 2000 census 60,606,947 - Density 132.1/km 2 (85 th ) or 342/sq mi Density 132.1/km (85 ) or 342/sq mi GDP (PPP) 2008 estimate - Total $547.060 billion (24 th ) Total $547.060 billion (24 ) - Per capita $8,239 (86 th ) GDP (nominal) 2008 estimate GDP (nominal) 2008 estimate - Total $273.313 billion (33 rd ) - Per capita $4,116 (92 nd ) 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 3

  4. Population Population 80.00 70.00 70.00 60.00 ion person n 50.00 40.00 Mill 30.00 20.00 10.00 - 2005 2005 2030 2030 2050 2050 0-14 13.26 14.45 15.93 15-64 43.29 49.09 54.10 over 64 4.44 5.27 5.81 Total 60.99 68.82 75.84 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 4

  5. No. of HH 50,000 45 000 45,000 housands HH 40,000 35 000 35,000 T 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - 2005 2030 2050 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 5

  6. Final energy consumption (ktoe) gy p ( ) 70000 60000 toe) umption (kt 50000 50000 40000 rgy Consu 30000 20000 Final Ene 10000 0 Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Transportation Commercial and Residential Industrial Agricultural 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 6

  7. Energy consumption in the transport sector (ktoe) 25000 20000 oe) sector (kto 15000 Transport 10000 5000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year LPG LPG Diesel Diesel Jet Fuel Jet Fuel Gasoline Gasoline Fuel oil Fuel oil 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 7

  8. Energy consumption in the industrial sector (ktoe) 30000 Coal and its Products Petroleum Products Natural Gas Natural Gas Electricity Electricity New & Renewable Energy 25000 ) ector (ktoe 20000 ndustrial se 15000 15000 10000 In 5000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 8

  9. CO 2 emissions (Energy) ( gy) Transport Power Manufacturing Commercial and Residential Others 200 180 160 Million ton 140 120 CO2 M 100 80 60 40 20 20 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 9

  10. SO 2 emissions (Energy) ( gy) Transport Power Manufacturing Commercial and Residential Others 0.6 0.5 0.4 on ton SO2 Millio 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 10

  11. Ktoe per GDP p 0.07 Transportation Indutrial Agricultural Commercial 0.06 0.05 ht Million Bah 0.04 ktoe per M 0.03 0 02 0.02 0.01 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Year 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 11

  12. Estimation of floor area in buildings g Floor Area Floor Area 45.00 40.00 35.00 30.00 n m 2 25.00 Million 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0.00 2005 2030 2050 Office 27.68 36.44 38.94 Hospital 10.91 24.52 28.49 Hotel 20.54 29.08 31.46 D Department t t 15.15 2 21.61 6 23 23.41 Education 13.97 24.34 28.35 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 12

  13. Transport Sector p Travel demand 400 Train (tptr ) 370 Bus (tpbs) eter 350 ger-kilome Large vehicle (tplv) Large vehicle (tplv) 300 Small vehicle (tpsv) Two wheel (tptw) 250 250 on passeng walk 199 200 bike Billio Air (tpar) 150 100 88 81 49 50 34 30 28 16 13 5 2 2 1 0 0 - 2005 2050 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 13

  14. Energy Consumption (2005) Coal Petroleum Natural gas Biomass Solar & Wind Electricity - - 42 - - - 44 1,278 4,898 - - 5,332 e ktoe 5 621 5,621 1,520 25 140 3,256 6,436 3,430 3,850 - 6,622 1,896 - - - - - - - Residential Agriculture Mining & Construction Manufacturing Service Transport Quarrying Industry 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 14

  15. Energy Consumption (2050) Coal Petroleum Natural gas Biomass Solar & Wind Electricity - - - 351 - - - 410 70,375 39,588 - e ktoe 42,511 207 1,174 19,325 53,801 10,222 - 845 36,114 23,689 40,377 6,055 - - - - - - - - - Residential Agriculture Mining & Construction Manufacturing Service Transport Quarrying Industry 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 15

  16. Energy Consumption in I ndustry (2005) Coal Petroleum Natural gas Biomass Solar & Wind Electricity 608.02 801 553 326 1477 269 18 798 661 ktoe 1585 68 1585.68 4798 1519.98 190 4520 606 606 1787 1787 344 83 344.83 702.27 342 292 Textiles Food products & Chemical Other Metallic & Non metallic beverages Manufacturing machinery 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 16

  17. Energy Consumption in I ndustry (2050) Coal Petroleum Natural gas Biomass Solar & Wind Electricity 3,760 9,699 9,699 8,568 33 758 33,758 4,623 5,611 e ktoe 12,925 38,555 32,680 32 680 15,905 2,859 2 734 2,734 7,110 5,948 192 166 Textiles Food products & Chemical Other Metallic & Non metallic beverages Manufacturing machinery 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 17

  18. Billion Baht 673 Agricultu ure 2,44 47 5 5,626 174 Mining g & Quarryi ng 634 1,459 9 166 Constructi ion 605 Gross Domestic Product 1,390 0 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 481 Texti les 1,750 0 4,0 023 2005 240 Foo od products s & beverag ges 873 2,00 06 2030 326 Chemic cal 1,184 4 2050 2,72 22 758 Other M Manufacturi ng 2,75 55 6,334 824 Metallic c & machine ery 2,9 98 6,891 183 Nonmeta llic 665 1,530 0 4, 191 Servic ces 15,24 40 35,033 18

  19. Forecast of FEC (Low GDP 3.5%) 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 19

  20. Share of energy types in industries (2005) Share of energy types in industries (2005) I NDUSTRY Electricity (% ) Heat (% ) Food & Beverage g 13 87 Textile 71 29 Wood & Furniture W d & F it 70 70 30 30 Paper 23 77 Chemical 32 68 Non Metallic 8 92 Basic Metal 43 57 Fabricated Metal 70 30 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 20

  21. Breakdown of energy consumption in Thai gy p commercial buildings 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 21

  22. 22 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

  23. 23 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

  24. % Share of electricity used in Thai residential 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 24

  25. % Share of non-electricity used Thai residential y 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 25

  26. 26 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

  27. 27 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN.

  28. Renewable Energy Development in Thailand: TRANSPORT SECTOR SALES OF GASOHOL AND UNLEADED GASOLINE 95 250 250 250 250 Gasohol 91+95+E20 ULG95 200 200 200 200 150 150 Million Litres Million Litres 100 100 50 50 0 0 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 28

  29. Renewable Energy Development in Thailand: TRANSPORT SECTOR Consumption of Gasoline and Diesel Consumption of Gasoline and Diesel ( (million litres/day) (million litres/day) ( y) y) 120 120 E85,B10 Petroleum Petroleum NGV NGV Biofuel Biofuel E10,E20,B2,B5 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 29% of gasoline and diesel will be substituted by biofuels and NGV in 2020 20 20 20 20 0 0 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 2018 2018 2019 2019 2020 2020 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 29

  30. Results: TOE savings per Investment g p Notes: Exchange rate: 35 Baht = $1 US 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 30

  31. Results: NPV per tCO 2 mitigation Notes: Exchange rate: 35 Baht = $1 US 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 31

  32. Forecast of system peak demand in Thailand (MW) 70,000.00 Peak demand during 2009-2030 60,000.00 50,000.00 mand (MW) 40,000.00 Peak dem 30,000.00 20 000 00 20,000.00 10,000.00 0.00 Years 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 32

  33. Future power plants in variable system p p y Installed Investment Generating capacity cost Life Fuel cost cost Plant type (MW) (MW) ($/ kW) ($/ kW) (year) (year) ($/ MMbtu) ($/ MMbtu) ($/ kWh) ($/ kWh) Nuclear 1000 3022 60 0.5 0.0683 Coal-fired with CCS 800 1875 30 4.01 0.0809 Coal-fired (pulverised) 800 1565 30 4.01 0.0737 Combine cycle gas turbine 290 429 20 20.51 0.2894 CHP/Co-generation (SPP) 800 714 25 9.76 0.0974 Source: (EGAT, Thailand, 2010) 15th AIM Int'l Workshop, NIES, JAPAN. 33

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