TYLER LER IS ISD AUGUST 2 2019 Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. Kris Pool - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

TYLER LER IS ISD AUGUST 2 2019

Stacey Tepera, Ph.D. Kris Pool President Data Manager Grant Guseman Demographer Matthew Vatthauer GIS Analyst WHO W O WE E ARE Large D La Demograph phic F Firm Lo Located i d in Co College St Station, TX TX ► 39+ Y 39+ Year H History ► Clients a are a almost E Exclu lusiv ively ly S School D l Distric icts ► Over 1 100 Years Co Combi bined D d Demographic E Expe perience ►

Economic D Data Housing ing P Proje jectio ions Employment Projections • Recent Employment Trends for • District Ten-Year Projections for • Single-Family and Multi- Family Developments Projections for Vacant • Parcels Current nt S Student nts WHAT W WE E D DO Geocode population • Count by grade and/or special • population Mapping ing Aerial Imagery • Existing and Future • Residential Development Long ng R Range P Planni nning ng Factors Affecting or • Limiting Development Attendance Zone Projections • Site Selection • Long Range Facilities Plan •

Annual Population Change Smith County 5,000 4,470 4,500 4,000 3,170 2,761 3,076 3,500 POPULATION CHANGE 2,172 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 YEAR Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Change Domestic Migration International Migration Natural Change

Total School District Enrollment Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region 0 School District Enrollment 1 Tyl yler I ISD 18,130 2 Hallsville ISD* 9,486 3 Longview ISD 8,621 4 Marshall ISD 5,341 5 Jacksonville ISD 4,857 6 Whitehouse ISD 4,831 7 Pine Tree ISD 4,500 8 Lindale ISD 4,115 9 Kilgore ISD 4,086 10 Mabank ISD 3,566 11 Chapel Hill ISD (Smith) 3,536 12 Henderson ISD 3,417 13 Athens ISD 3,011 14 Brownsboro ISD 2,734 15 Bullard ISD 2,587 Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

Numeric Change in Enrollment Fall 2017 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region 0 School District Change 1 Hallsville ISD* 4,409 2 Tyl yler I ISD 127 127 3 Wills Point ISD 105 4 Whitehouse ISD 93 5 Mabank ISD 53 6 Spring Hill ISD 53 7 Gilmer ISD 52 8 Longview ISD 50 9 Lindale ISD 40 10 Elysian Fields ISD 31 11 Hawkins ISD 29 12 Bullard ISD 27 13 Winona ISD 24 14 Mineola ISD 23 15 Sabine ISD 22 Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

Percent Change in Enrollment Fall 2017 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region 0 School District Change 1 Hallsville ISD* 86.8% 2 Murchison ISD 8.4% 3 Wills Point ISD 4.3% 4 Hawkins ISD 4.2% 5 Wells ISD 4.2% 6 Lapoynor ISD 3.8% 7 Elysian Fields ISD 3.5% 8 Spring Hill ISD 2.7% 9 Cross Roads ISD 2.4% 10 Winona ISD 2.2% 11 Gilmer ISD 2.1% 12 Harmony ISD 2.0% 13 Grand Saline ISD 2.0% 14 Whitehouse ISD 2.0% 29 Tyl yler I ISD 0.7% Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

Numeric Change in Enrollment Fall 2013 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region 0 School District Change 1 Hallsville ISD* 4,726 2 Lindale ISD 292 3 Bullard ISD 274 4 Whitehouse ISD 245 5 Mabank ISD 172 6 Spring Hill ISD 159 7 Sabine ISD 135 8 New Diana ISD 126 9 Ore City ISD 113 10 Canton ISD 108 11 Malakoff ISD 105 12 12 Tyl yler I ISD 101 101 13 Eustace ISD 98 14 Van ISD 97 15 White Oak ISD 81 Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

Percent Change in Enrollment Fall 2013 to Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region 0 School District Change 1 Hallsville ISD* 99.3% 2 Ore City ISD 13.4% 3 Mount Enterprise ISD 13.1% 4 New Diana ISD 12.7% 5 Bullard ISD 11.8% 6 Sabine ISD 9.9% 7 Union Hill ISD 9.9% 8 Spring Hill ISD 8.5% 9 Malakoff ISD 8.2% 10 Lindale ISD 7.6% 11 Winona ISD 7.5% 12 Edgewood ISD 7.0% 13 Martins Mill ISD 6.9% 14 Alba-Golden ISD 6.8% 35 Tyl yler I ISD 0.6% Source: Texas Education Agency *Virtual campus added in Fall 2018

Percent Economically Disadvantaged Fall 2018, Tyler-Longview Region 0 School District Econ. Dis. 1 Karnack ISD 2.4% 2 Bullard ISD 33.9% 3 Canton ISD 38.8% 4 White Oak ISD 39.0% 5 Hallsville ISD 39.5% 6 New Diana ISD 42.8% 7 Lindale ISD 44.3% 8 Harleton ISD 45.1% 9 Whitehouse ISD 45.4% 10 Spring Hill ISD 45.5% 11 Union Grove ISD 46.7% 12 Martins Mill ISD 47.0% 13 Sabine ISD 48.6% 14 Harmony ISD 48.9% 55 Tyl yler I ISD 75.0% 0% Source: Texas Education Agency

2017 17 Demo mogr graphi hic c Upd Update

-300 -200 -10 Total Student Gain or Loss 300 200 10 100 200 200 300 300 400 400 500 500 100 0 199 1991-92 92 1992 1992-93 93 1993-94 1993 94 1994 1994-95 95 1995 1995-96 96 1996 1996-97 97 199 1997-98 98 1998 1998-99 99 1999 1999-00 00 2000 2000-01 01 200 2001-02 02 2002-03 2002 03 2003 2003-04 04 2004 2004-05 05 2005 2005-06 06 2006 2006-07 07 200 2007-08 08 2008 2008-09 09 2009 2009-10 10 201 010-11 11 20 2011 11-12 12 201 012-13 13 201 013-14 14 201 014-15 15 20 2015 15-16 16 201 016-17 17 2017 17-18 18 201 018-19 19

Demographic Characteristics 35.7 Population Median Age 18% Ages 5–17 State of Texas 34.7 State of Texas 19% Mean Travel $51,426 Median 21.1 Time to Work Household State of Texas $59,206 Income State of Texas 26.5 minutes 66.9% Bachelor’s Degree STAAR Passage Rate 25% State of Texas 73.1% State of Texas 30% 75.0% Economically Disadvantaged Student Population State of Texas 60.6% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5-Year Estimate; Texas Education Agency

Kindergarten vs. Births Bi Births (Adj djusted F ed Five Y e Yea ears) Kinder Ki dergarten en E Enrollmen ment 2,200 2,2 00 2,000 2,0 00 1,8 1,800 00 STUDENTS 1,6 1,600 00 1,400 1,4 00 1,200 1,2 00 1,000 1,0 00 SCHOOL YEAR Sources: Texas Department of State Health Services; Texas Education Agency

PK-12 Enrollment Share Tyler I.S.D. Residents R Resident S Students: 21,885 Attending T.I.S.D. 18,130 Transfers into the District 214 Attending and Residing in T.I.S.D. 17,916 (81.9%) Attending Charter Schools 1 2,029 (9.3%) Attending Private Schools 2 1,491 (6.8%) Attending Nearby Districts 1 449 (2.1%) 1 Source: Texas Education Agency, Transfer Reports 2018-19 2 Source: PASA interviews

CHARTER SCHOOLS

Projected Katy I.S.D. Students Demographics 2017 17 Students Demo mogr graphi hi Employ- per c Upd Update ment Home Housing

EMPLOYMENT CHANGE -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% Tyler Metro, Seasonally Adjusted Six-Month Change in Employment Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Employment Change (Non-Farm) Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 MONTH Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Source: Texas Workforce Commission Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19

Employment by Sector District Residents in the Workforce, 2017 Estimate Public Resource Other Construction Admin. Collection Services 8% 3% 2% 6% Entertainment & Manufacturing Food Service 8% 11% Wholesale Trade 2% Education & Retail Trade Healthcare 15% 26% Resource Distribution 4% Information Finance & Professional & 3% Real Estate Administrative 4% 8% Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates

 Ma May 2019 U 2019 Une nemploymen ent o of 2. 2.8% 8% i in T n Tyler er  Distribu bution on a and nd F Food Pr Proces cessing GG D Distr tributi tion – 180 j 180 job obs  John ohn Sou oules F Food oods e expansion  San Sanderson F Far arms  Re Rece cently op opened a and ha have 1, 1,000 000 w wor orkers  500 500 additional j job obs e expected by late 2019 2019  Most workers l liv ive in in Tyler 

 Med Medica cal a and nd H Hea ealthca care Larges est empl employers in Smi mith C County  UT UT H Health h East T TX X – 4, 4,439 439  CHR HRIST STUS T S Trin init ity M Mother Fran ances - 4, 4,095 095  Freseniu ius Medic ical C Car are o opened in in 2018  nea early 3 300 empl employees w with pl plans for  expand anding ing a and a adding ng 2 200 more positio ions ns Centen tene C e Corp. p.  50,000 50, 000-sq. ft ft. fa faci cility (op (opened 2013) 2013)  Site p pro rocesse sses M s Medicaid/Me Medicare re cla laims s  and ser erves 1 19 states; ex expa pansion ex expe pected

Housing Projections Methodology ► Analysis by Planning Unit

Housing Projections Methodology ► New Housing Plans by City ► Special Districts (Utilties)

Housing Projections Methodology ► Land Ownership Changes ► (2016 to Present) ► Land for Sale (May 2019)

 Rose se Cit City y Munic icipal Ut Util ility Dist istrict Approved by Texas Legislature in 2019  Overlay district in south T.I.S.D.  Bonds would be issued to provide utilities  Competition with current private utility provider  Development likely to increase   Cou ounty R Roa oad 1 168 Rehabilitation on  Toll 49 49 Ex Extens ension on ea east o of T.I.S.D.