The Saskatchewan Labour Market The Saskatchewan Labour Market Presentation to: Doug Elliott Sask Trends Monitor Yorkton Employer Seminar 444 19th Avenue Regina, Saskatchewan February 12, 2004 S4N 1H1 Tel: 306-522-5515 Yorkton, Saskatchewan Fax: 306-522-5838 Email: sasktrends@sasktel.net Internet: www.sasktrends.ca
Contents Contents General Economic Overview � – Population – Gross Domestic Product – Other Key Economic Indicators Definition of Labour Market Terms and Concepts � Employment - characteristics of jobs and persons working in them � – Hours of work – Industry – Category – Age and gender – Education level – Aboriginal identity – Sub-provincial regions The East Central Economic Region � Socioeconomic characteristics of those not employed � Reports re: Labour Market Information � Feb 11, 2004 2
Population Population 1,040,000 Saskatchewan’s � population has been at or near 1 million for the 1,030,000 past 15 years. 1,020,000 In fact, the population � has fluctuated near this psychological 1,010,000 figure since the late 1920s. 1,000,000 An increase in out- � migration and declining 990,000 in-migration led to annual population declines in the late 980,000 1990s. 970,000 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Feb 11, 2004 3
Gross Domestic Product Gross Domestic Product 8% The Gross Domestic annual increase in real GDP � Product (GDP) is the most widely used 6% measure of overall economic activity. 4% The GDP measures the � value of goods and 2% services produced in the economy. Adjusted for 0% inflation, it is called the “real GDP”. -2% A decline in real GDP is Canada � the technical definition Saskatchewan -4% of a recession. The provincial economy was in recession in 2001 and -6% 2002. 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 est Feb 11, 2004 4
Resources/International Trade Resources/International Trade Value of Mineral Production Value of International Merchandise Trade $10 $14 international merchandise trade ($ billions) value of oil/gas and $9 mineral production $12 $ billions $8 $10 $7 $6 $8 $5 $6 $4 $3 $4 $2 $2 $1 $0 $0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 Feb 11, 2004 5
Farm Receipts and Income Farm Receipts and Income $7 Drought, poor grain $ billions � prices, and the BSE case have led to Farm cash receipts $6 declining cash receipts Farm cash receipts in 2002 and 2003. excluding gov't transfers $5 Net cash income has � been supported by $4 expenses government transfer payments since 2000 as it was in the last $3 1980s and early 1990s. $2 $1 acutal net cash income $0 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 est Feb 11, 2004 6
Consumer Spending Consumer Spending Economic growth in $10 � retail sales 2002 and 2003 has $ billions been better than expected because $9 consumer spending is strong. actual $8 Motor vehicle sales, in � particular, have generated increases in $7 retail spending well above the rate of adjusted inflation. $6 for inflation (constant 1992 dollars) Other indicators of � consumer confidence $5 such as housing starts are also strong. $4 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Feb 11, 2004 7
Employment Employment 490 With the exception of � employment in thousands the unprecedented drop in 2001, employment has 480 grown at a reasonable pace in the past decade. 470 From 1992 to 2000, � employment grew at an 460 average annual rate of 1% per year. 450 From 2000 to 2003, � there has been virtually 440 no change in 1992 to 2000 2000 to employment; two years Average annual 2003: were required to growth of 1.0% 0.1% 430 recover the 13,000 jobs lost in 2001. 420 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Feb 11, 2004 8
Employment and the Labour Force Employment and the Labour Force
Definitions Definitions The labour market data is all based on a Adult (15 and older) Population in � telephone survey of individuals - the Saskatchewan, 2003 Labour Force Survey (LFS) - conducted monthly by Statistics Canada. Approximately 5,000 Sask residents take part in the LFS every month. Not in the labour force The survey excludes those who live on 240,000 � Indian Reserves. Statistics Canada classifies all persons � 15 years of age or older into one of three categories: – employed: working full-time or part- time, as a paid worker or self- Employed employed Unemployed 487,000 29,000 – unemployed: not working but actively seeking employment – not in the labour force: everybody else About one half of those “not in the � labour force” are retired seniors. Feb 11, 2004 10
Inter-provincial Comparisons Inter-provincial Comparisons Average Annual Employment Increase Saskatchewan’s � employment growth rate Canada of 1.0% from 1992 to 2000 was below the national average but still respectable. Manitoba The 0.1% average annual � increase since 2000 is the lowest in Canada. Saskatchewan Alberta 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 1992 to 2000 2000 to 2003 Feb 11, 2004 11
Characteristics of Jobs - Hours of Work Characteristics of Jobs - Hours of Work Average Annual Employment Increase In 2003, 23% of persons � employed were working part time. Full time In the early period - 1992 to � 2000 - full time jobs were replacing part time ones. Since 2000, the increase has Part time been in part time jobs. Saskatchewan has the � highest proportion of multiple job holders (persons with two Multiple job or more jobs simultaneously) holders in Canada but the incidence is declining. In 2003, 8% of the employed had two or more -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% jobs. 1992 to 2000 2000 to 2003 Feb 11, 2004 12
Characteristics of Jobs - Industry Characteristics of Jobs - Industry Employment by Industry of "Main" Job 500 In effect, employment in � thousands the province increases when the non-agricultural sector can absorb the 450 ongoing loss of agriculture non-agriculture jobs. Employment in agriculture accounted for 400 10% of the total in 2003 compared with 18% in 1993. 350 Employment in non- � agricultural industry groups increased by 1.8% 100 per year from 1992 to agriculture 2000 and 1.3% per year from 2000 to 2003. 50 Note that the industry is � based on the “main job” 0 for multiple job holders. 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Feb 11, 2004 13
Characteristics of Jobs - Non-Agriculture Industries Characteristics of Jobs - Non-Agriculture Industries Average Annual Employment Change Resources Construction Manufacturing Transportation, warehousing Wholesale and retail trade Finance, insurance, real estate Professional, technical, business services Health and social services 1992 to 2000 Education services 2000 to 2003 Accommodation and food Information, culture, recreation Other services Public administration -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Feb 11, 2004 14
Characteristics of the Employed - Gender Characteristics of the Employed - Gender Employment by Gender 275 Employment among � women is increasing thousands more quickly than among men. 250 Part (but not all) of the � reason is the nature of the industry growth. That is, the fastest 225 growing sectors are those where women are more likely to be employed, e.g. – health and social 200 services – education – information, culture, recreation 175 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Feb 11, 2004 15
Characteristics of the Employed - Age Characteristics of the Employed - Age Average Annual Employment Increase In the past ten to fifteen � years, the bulge in the 15 to 24 population called the “baby boom” generation has moved from their forties to their early fifties. 25 to 39 The growth in employment � among those 40 to 54 is a natural consequence of the 40 to 54 aging of the population. The growth among those 55 and older in the past three years is because of higher 55 plus participation in the labour force. -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 1992 to 2000 2000 to 2003 Feb 11, 2004 16
Characteristics of the Employed - Education Level Characteristics of the Employed - Education Level Employment: 25 to 64 Years of Age 250 All of the employment thousands � growth since 1990 has been among those with a 200 post-secondary education. In 2002, over 85% of 150 � those 25 to 64 and with a post-secondary education were employed. This 100 compares with 61% of those with less than Grade 12. 50 Post secondary graduates Grade 12, some post-secondary Less than grade 12 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Feb 11, 2004 17
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