Labour Market Update targeting workforce opportunities What data do - PDF document

16/01/2014 What do we do? Our mission is to serve the Niagara region with: • local labour market planning • delivering authoritative research • identifying employment trends Labour Market Update • targeting workforce opportunities What data do we use? Labour Force Survey 2011 NHS Education/Attainment Population and Migration Occupation (2011) Characteristics Census and Taxfiler CBP – Employer Characteristics and Trends Niagara-on-the-Lake: A Brief Local research – e.g. West Niagara Profile BR+E survey Brock student consulting EO Client Data from MTCU (new) 1

16/01/2014 Job Numbers in NOTL Top Ten Occupations in NOTL, 2012 12,000 600 $25.00 500 11,000 $20.00 Median hourly income (2012) 400 10,000 Workers (2012) $15.00 300 9,000 $10.00 200 8,000 $5.00 100 7,000 0 $0.00 Agriculture and Motor vehicle and Cleaners Retail Machine Occupations in Sales Administrative Food counter Chefs and cooks horticulture transit drivers salespersons and operators and food and representatives, and regulatory attendants, workers sales clerks related workers in beverage service wholesale trade occupations kitchen helpers 6,000 food, beverage and related and tobacco occupations 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 processing Source: EMSI Analyst Source: EMSI Analyst Top Ten Industries in NOTL, 2012 NOTL Income 1,200 $90,000 $80,000 1,000 $70,000 • $86.50 out of every $100 income is Average income (2012) 800 $60,000 measured as “market income” Jobs (2012) $50,000 600 • 14.5% of incomes are from retirement $40,000 400 $30,000 pensions, superannuation, and annuities – $20,000 more than double the rate in Ontario 200 $10,000 • Average earnings in 2012 were $36,900 or 0 $0 80% of the national average Source: EMSI Analyst Source: EMSI Analyst and Statistics Canada 2

16/01/2014 Niagara’s aging population 1996 85 years and over 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years The Niagara Region’s Demographic 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years Challenge 5 to 9 years 0 to 4 years 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Female Male Source: Census, 1996 Niagara’s aging population Niagara’s aging population 2001 2006 85 years and over 85 years and over 80 to 84 years 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years 5 to 9 years 0 to 4 years 0 to 4 years 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Female Male Female Male Source: Census, 2001 Source: Census, 2006 3

16/01/2014 Niagara’s aging population Niagara’s aging population 2011 2016 (projection) 85 years and over 85 years and over 80 to 84 years 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years 5 to 9 years 0 to 4 years 0 to 4 years 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Female Male Female Male Source: National Household Survey, 2011 Niagara’s aging population Niagara’s aging population 2021 (projection) 2026 (projection) 85 years and over 85 years and over 80 to 84 years 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 64 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 50 to 54 years 45 to 49 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years 5 to 9 years 0 to 4 years 0 to 4 years 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 Female Male Female Male 4

16/01/2014 Niagara’s aging population Niagara’s aging workforce Ontario (5%) and Niagara 85 years and over 80 to 84 years 100% 75 to 79 years 90% 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 80% 60 to 64 years 70% 55 to 59 years 50 to 54 years 60% 45 to 49 years 50% 40 to 44 years 40% 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 30% 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 20% 15 to 19 years 10% 10 to 14 years 0% 5 to 9 years Mar-96 Oct-96 May-97 Dec-97 Jul-98 Feb-99 Sep-99 Apr-00 Nov-00 Jun-01 Jan-02 Aug-02 Mar-03 Oct-03 May-04 Dec-04 Jul-05 Feb-06 Sep-06 Apr-07 Nov-07 Jun-08 Jan-09 Aug-09 Mar-10 Oct-10 May-11 Dec-11 Jul-12 Feb-13 0 to 4 years 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 Female St. Catharines 5% Female Ontario Male St. Catharines 5% Male Ontario 15 to 24 years 25 to 54 years 55 years and over Source: National Household Survey, 2011 Source: Labour Force Survey estimates Niagara’s aging workforce Niagara’s aging workforce • The proportion of the working age population will shrink faster • Unless labour market participation and productivity improve, economic growth will • Increases in income and standard suffer and labour shortages may of living through increasing the result employment rate become increasingly difficult Source: Department of Finance Canada, Economic and Fiscal Implications of Canada’s Aging Population Source: Department of Finance Canada, Economic and Fiscal Implications of Canada’s Aging Population (March 2, 2012) (March 2, 2012) 5

16/01/2014 Labour participation is not increasing Niagara’s stagnant population 3.0% Population Growth (non-compound) 100 2.5% 90 80 2.0% 70 1.5% 60 50 1.0% 40 0.5% 30 20 0.0% 10 -0.5% 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Niagara Source: Labour force survey estimates, 2013 Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM 051-00146, census data & intercensal/postcensalestimates Niagara’s stagnant population Niagara’s stagnant labour force 3.0% Population Growth (non-compound) 2.5% 450,000 2.0% 400,000 350,000 1.5% 300,000 250,000 1.0% 200,000 150,000 100,000 0.5% 50,000 0 0.0% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -0.5% 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Niagara Hamilton Waterloo Toronto Labour Force Working Age Population Total Population Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM 051-00146, census data & intercensal/postcensalestimates Source: Statistics Canada, CANSIM 282-0110 & 051-0046 , census data & intercensal/postcensalestimates, labour force survey estimates 6

16/01/2014 Secular Stagnation What is Secular Stagnation? • “Unless labour force • A falling birth rate and a declining population produce economic participation… starts rising stagnation rapidly again, this means a slower-growth economy, and • More people means more houses, thanks to the accelerator effect, offices, cars, etc. lower investment demand.” • When population growth slows, that -- Paul Krugman demand falters Source: Paul Krugman, “Secular Stagnation, Coalmines, Bubbles, and Larry Summers” in The New York Times , November 16, 2013 What is Secular Stagnation? Challenges • The accelerator effect makes this worse • Niagara needs to attract and retain more people, especially the young • Economic booms become weaker and shorter-lived; depressions become • Niagara needs to bring more of its longer and deeper existing population into the labour force • A depressed economy and high unemployment become the norms 7