The Tasmanian labour market Ivan Neville Assistant Secretary Labour Market Research and Analysis Branch
E mployment in Tasmania has declined recently… Average annual growth over past 5 years: Tasmania : 1.4% Australia : 2.0% 1.4% -0.9% -2200 jobs Source: ABS Labour Force, April 2019 (trend data)
…while the unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate remain high… The highest of any State or Territory Youth UE rate (April 19): Tasmania: 16.0% Australia: 11.8% Source: ABS Labour Force, April 2019 (seasonally adjusted data); Tasmania youth unemployment rate calculated using 12 month averages of original data
…with higher unemployment rates in some regions Unemployment rate by LGA, Tasmania SA2s with the highest UE rates Bridgewater – Gagebrook: 27.0% Ravenswood: 18.7% Risdon Vale: 15.2% Rokeby: 14.1% Source: Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business, Small Area Labour Markets, December Quarter 2018; Tasmanian unemployment rate is the seasonally adjusted figure from the ABS Labour Force, April 2019 release
The workforce is ageing rapidly… Employed persons, Tasmania Number of employed An increase of 17,300 18 to 50 year olds: workers from 2006 to 2016 2006 : 146,900 2016 : 140,500 Change: -6400 Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2006, 2011 and 2016
…and some industries are already old Number of workers aged 55 years and over, Tasmania, 2016 Growth in workers aged 55+ since 2006 +4,300 +2,200 +1,100 +1,300 +500 +1,500 +400 Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2006 and 2016
There are fewer people of working age to support the ageing population… Tasmania 0.6 %pts 1.0 %pts There are 3.3 people aged 15 to 64 years for every person aged 65 years and over Source: ABS, Estimated Resident Population, 2001 to 2017
…made worse by many young people moving interstate… Net migration into Tasmania by age, five years to 2017-18 Source: ABS, Regional Interstate Migration Estimates
…and those who leave are more highly educated 30,100* 14-18 year olds living in Tasmania in 2006 Over the same Place of residence in 2016 period for the same age group, 24,100 6000 2700 moved into in Tasmania on the mainland Tasmania from the 60% 76% Completed Year 12 mainland. 32% 22% Have a Certificate III/IV 36% have a 20% 44% Have a Bachelor degree Bachelor degree 78% 79% Have a job Job is high skilled 34% 48% 10% 21% Have an income of $78,000+ *Only represents those who were counted in the 2006, 2011 and 2016 Censuses Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2006, 2011 and 2016 (longitudinal dataset)
Education is vital Tasmania, persons aged 25-34 years Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing, 2016
Many jobs will need to be filled in the next 5 years Workers leaving for overseas: ??? Workers leaving for interstate: 18,000 At least 58,700 Estimated other turnover: 13,000 jobs will need to be Estimated retirements: 16,500 filled Projected jobs growth: 11,200 (Employment Projections to 2023) Source: Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business, Employment projections to 2023; 2018 Skill Shortages research; ABS Census of Population and Housing, longitudinal dataset (2011 and 2016)
Who could fill these jobs?
Interstate migration is not really assisting… Persons aged 15 to 49 years, Tasmania 3000 Net interstate migration 2000 1000 850 290 0 -120 -200 -330 -410 -500 -580 -660 -910 -930 -1270 -1770 -1500 -1000 -2000 Source: ABS, Interstate Migration statistics; Overseas migration statistics
…but overseas migration is Persons aged 15 to 49 years, Tasmania 3000 Net interstate migration Net overseas migration 2000 2000 1810 1000 1750 1450 1380 1290 1270 1240 1230 1150 1120 980 900 850 680 290 0 -120 -200 -330 -410 -500 -580 -660 -910 -930 -1270 -1770 -1500 -1000 -2000 Source: ABS, Interstate Migration statistics; Overseas migration statistics
New arrivals are more likely to be unemployed … Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing 2016; Census longitudinal dataset (2006, 2011 and 2016)
…a nd qualified overseas migrants are not being fully utilised Persons aged 15 to 64 who have a Bachelor Degree or higher, Tasmania 2016 Represents 2100 people with Bachelor Degrees Source: ABS, Census of Population and Housing 2016
The unemployed must be given a chance… Total jobactive caseload in Tasmania: 19,100 Source: Department of Employment, Skills, Small and Family Business, administrative data as at end of April 2019
…and what can be done to increase participation Main activity when not in the labour force, persons aged 15 to 64, Tasmania 1100 job seekers 20,000 are ‘discouraged’ 80-90% are women 15,000 4,200 Two thirds 14,500 are women 10,000 4,300 8,000 11,900 5,000 6,600 4,000 7,400 4,400 3,200 2,000 1,300 0 Own long-term Attending an Home duties Caring for Retired Looking after ill health educational children or disabled condition or institution person disability Note: Figures on this slide have been calculated by averaging results across 2016, 2017 and 2018. Source: ABS Participation, Job Search and Mobility, 2016, 2017 and 2018
Conclusion Tasmania faces significant labour supply challenges Retaining local talent or encouraging those who leave to return – particularly young people Unemployed may need help finding employment Reducing barriers for those not participating Better utilisation of qualified migrants Promoting employment opportunities to migrants before they move
Tools to support and assist Department of Employment , Skills, Small and Family Business
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