The Dynamics of Waste Prevention: Building Evidence to Support - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

The Dynamics of Waste Prevention: Building Evidence to Support Policy Making in Defra Maria Angulo (Defra) Rachel Freeman (Sustain & University of Bristol) System Dynamics Conference, London 7 th February 2013

The dynamics of Waste Prevention: outline of the presentation 1. Introduction: the team, the project 2. Policy context 3. The modelling approach – group model building workshops 4. The modelling approach – stock and flow model and adding dynamic behaviour 5. Lessons learned 6. What’s next 7. Challenges and open discussion 2

The dynamics of Waste Prevention 1. Introduction: the team, the project, why SD 2. Policy context for the modelling 3. The modelling approach – group model building workshops 4. The modelling approach – stock and flow model and adding dynamic behaviour 5. Lessons learned 6. What’s next 7. Challenges and open discussion 3

Project Description • Research project funded by specialist R&D budget (Strategic Evidence Partnership Fund) to build Defra’s modelling and systems thinking capabilities to support policy making • Two subprojects: waste prevention and packaging recycling • Experimenting with systems thinking and system dynamics to support policy development and evaluation • More proactive and interactive approach to evidence gathering with policy makers • Reach consensus/common understanding about key drivers, interactions, dynamics • Develop policy scenarios using evidence provided by the model (initially qualitatively and quantitatively in the longer-term) • Ultimate objective is better, more robust policies (avoid unintended consequences, successful within wide range of uncertainty) 4

The Team • Maria Angulo – Operational Researcher, Defra • Rachel Freeman – Research Engineer, University of Bristol (EngD), on placement at Sustain Ltd. • Mike Yearworth – Reader in Systems, University of Bristol • Lee Jones, Andy Hill – Trainers and Modellers, Ventana Systems • Tom Quested – Analyst, WRAP (Waste and Resources Action Programme) 5

The dynamics of Waste Prevention 1. Introduction: the team, the project, why SD 2. Policy context for the modelling 3. The modelling approach – group model building workshops 4. The modelling approach – stock and flow model and adding dynamic behaviour 5. Lessons learned 6. What’s next 7. Challenges and open discussion 6

The dynamics of Waste Prevention: Policy Context • First Waste Prevention Programme for England to be published before December 2013 • Defra is lead department, currently building evidence base • First initiative to tackle top of waste hierarchy • Ultimate objective is to decouple economic growth EU Waste Hierarchy from waste generation • Very wide scope with many actors and complex interactions • Strong links with resource efficiency agenda (material efficiency) • Does not cover water or electricity consumption • Does consider carbon emissions and hazardousness 7

Definition of Waste Prevention WP reduces the amount and toxicity of waste before recycling, composting, energy recovery and landfilling become options. WP also includes measures to reduce the adverse impacts of the generated waste on the environment and human health. Source: EU’s Preparing a Waste Prevention Programme 8

Decoupling Waste and Economic Health • Decoupling refers, broadly to the process of separating economic growth from associated negative environmental impacts • Whether economic growth is compatible with conserving finite natural resources on the scale that now appears to be required has been disputed • Evidence shows decoupling effects are extremely weak, non- existent, short-lived or highly ambiguous; reasons why decoupling did not occur are not clear Source: WR1204, Household Waste Prevention Evidence Review: L3 m5-1 (T) – Future waste growth, modelling & de-coupling A report for Defra’s Waste and Resources Evidence Programme 9

Methods of Waste Prevention in Supply Chain Source: EU’s Preparing a Waste Prevention Programme 10

The dynamics of Waste Prevention 1. Introduction: the team, the project, why SD 2. Policy context for the modelling 3. The modelling approach – group model building workshops 4. The modelling approach – stock and flow model and adding dynamic behaviour 5. Lessons learned 6. What’s next 7. Challenges and open discussion 11

Workshops • Two group model building days with approximately 20 people - policy makers, analysts, industry experts, people from BIS, Wrap, other stakeholder groups • Split up into four groups • First day: open discussion, exploring and scoping the problem, identifying relevant system elements and system boundary (sticky notes, flipcharts), clustering, identify key variables and relationships, first CLDs • Transfer CLDs into Vensim, print out on A0 (four models) • Second day: discussion on purpose of the model and metrics of interest, review of initial CLDs (swap groups), add to CLDs, expand, enhance, revise • Feedback from policy team very positive • Many CLDs from workshops combined into three CLDs (repair, reuse, remanufacture) 12

Workshop Day One 13

Second Workshop Day 14

Model Purpose – Definition from Workshop • The purpose of the model is to understand the dynamics of the flow of materials in products, from cradle to discard, in the domestic sector – identifying the drivers of the metrics of waste intensity of household activities and associated carbon emissions (and hazardousness?) , in England/the UK, and how they interact. • The System of Interest lies between the producer and the point at which products/materials enter the waste system. 15

The dynamics of Waste Prevention 1. Introduction: the team, the project, why SD 2. Policy context for the modelling 3. The modelling approach – group model building workshops 4. The modelling approach – stock and flow model and adding dynamic behaviour, CLDs 5. Lessons learned 6. What’s next 7. Challenges and open discussion 16

Material Flows (Stock and Flow) Stock and Flow diagram WP • Represents physical flows of materials and pathways through supply chain and use • Includes some waste management (recovery) • System boundary around UK (although WPP is for England only) • Data being gathered to reproduce historical behaviour (data from ONS, Defra, HMRC, WRAP, literature reviews) • Initial version has no dynamic behaviour (data defines behaviour) • Plan is to gradually substitute data to create reference mode model (this will take time!) 17

The Decline of Repair 18

Repair z effect of capacity on unit cost other factors - unit cost of repair initial capacity affecting price delay factor to repair service repair industry provider - capacity of repair industry capacity growth rate of repair unit price to industry customer of repair z impact of capacity on <sales price of visibility and products> convenience gap between supply and <annual amount of materials demand for repair services - in products going from in-use to not-in-use> visibility and convenience of repair services - demand for repair relative price of Fraction actually services repair to new in need of repair <perceived people's attitude to wastefulness (social norm)> z impact of business model on design for repairability design for relative attractiveness repairability and of repairs - upgradeability z effect of social norm on relative attractiveness z impact of visibility on attractiveness z impact of relative cost on attractiveness 19

Consumption Trends 20

Consumption <sales price of products> Disposable Income <annual amount of materials Elasticity of in products going from in-use - relative cost of to not-in-use> Relative Cost of goods Goods to Population Disposable Income - Relative Cost of Basic Services to replacement Disposable Income rate - Cost of Basic Elasticity of relative UK annual demand for Services cost of basic services materials in products in Change in rate of consumer use consumption replacement z social norm on Time consumption effect of relative cost of goods on social norm perceived people's attitude to wastefulness (social norm) rate of change in perception social - norm Full Model time to perceive social norm 21

The dynamics of Waste Prevention 1. Introduction: the team, the project, why SD 2. Policy context for the modelling 3. The modelling approach – group model building workshops 4. The modelling approach – stock and flow model and adding dynamic behaviour 5. Lessons learned 6. What’s next 7. Challenges and open discussion 22