March 10-12, 2005 ,NIES, Tsukuba, Japan Activities in the Fiscal Year 2005 in Korea The 10 10th AIM International Workshop th AIM International Workshop The Tae Yong Jung IGES, Japan Dong Kun Lee Seoul National University, Korea So Won Yoon Seoul National University, Korea Ｅｕｎ Ｙｏｕｎｇ Ｋｉｍ Seoul National University, Korea
Table of Contents I. AIM/Korea local Model: Transport Sector in Seoul - Introduction - Input data projection - Scenario (setting/Results) - Policy Implication II. AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model - Introduction - Analysis Results - Policy Implication <2>
AIM/Korea local Model AIM/Korea local Model 1. Introduction 2. Input data projection 3. Scenario (setting/Results) 4. Policy Implication
I . AIM/Korea local Model 1. Introduction � The Ministry of Environment (MoE) of Republic of Korea (ROK) enacted the Special Act on Metropolitan Air Quality Improvement in December 2003 � The new legislation of the Special Act on Metropolitan Air Quality Improvement is expected to affect the whole emission profiles of air pollutants in this area with the introduction of diesel passenger cars. � To discuss the possible impact of this Special Act on emissions of sulfur-dioxide (SO2), nitrogen-oxide (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM), and carbon dioxide (CO2) from the transport sector in Seoul. � To analyzes the various policy scenarios along with projections of key determinants in the transport sector in this area. <4>
I . AIM/Korea local Model 2. Input Data Projection Population Population (thousand pop.) 600 12000000 500 10000000 400 8000000 300 6000000 200 4000000 100 2000000 0 e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 4 9 0 4 - 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 0 - 5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 e 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 v 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 3 6 9 2 5 8 1 4 7 0 o 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 b 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 a 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 m an wom an 1980 m an 1980 wom an 2030 m an 2030 wom an <5>
I . AIM/Korea local Model 2. Input Data Projection GRDP GRDP Vehicle Vehicle <6>
I . AIM/Korea local Model 2. Input Data Comparison Tokyo/Seoul/Beijing Tokyo/Seoul/Beijing Vehicle(Seoul) Vehicle(Seoul) 600 557 Japan 500 Tokyo 423.5 500 Tokyo Ward area 400 Korea Vehicles per 1000 people 400 Seoul 359.5 356 300 China 317 Beijing 300 200 226 216 200 100 100 0 72 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 9 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 <7>
I . AIM/Korea local Model 3. Scenario (Setting/Results) Scenario Description BAU Business-As-Usual (BAU) Scenario BAU_IMP Scenario that the new emission standard is applied Scenario that diesel passenger cars will take 10 % D10 shares in 2030 Scenario that new advanced technology vehicles will H30 take 30% shares in 2030 D10H30 (D10 + H30) Combined Scenario <8>
I . AIM/Korea local Model 3. Scenario (Setting/Results) Energy use Energy use 10^3TOE Energy use 4,700 4,600 4,500 4,400 4,300 4,200 4,100 4,000 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 BAU BAU_IMP D10 H30 D10H30 <9>
I . AIM/Korea local Model 3. Scenario (Setting/Results) NOx NOx TO N NOx 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 2001 2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029 BAU BAU_IMP D10 H30 D10H30 <10>
I . AIM/Korea local Model 3. Scenario (Setting/Results) SO 2 SO 2 TON S O 2 2,450.0 2,400.0 2,350.0 2,300.0 2,250.0 2,200.0 2,150.0 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 BAU BAU_IMP D10 H30 D10H30 <11>
I . AIM/Korea local Model 3. Scenario (Setting/Results) CO 2 CO 2 T O N CO 2 3,700,000 3,600,000 3,500,000 3,400,000 3,300,000 3,200,000 3,100,000 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 BAU BAU_IMP D10 H30 D10H30 <12>
I . AIM/Korea local Model 4. Policy Implication � The new legislation of the Special Act on Metropolitan Air Quality Improvement will affect the emission profiles of air pollutants in this area especially with the introduction of diesel passenger cars. � The environmental policies and measures would shift to more market- oriented approaches rather than the conventional ‘ command-and-control ’ type. � The relative energy prices between gasoline and diesel should be re- examined (energy tax issues). � Policy balance among sectors and policy integration is considered in more systematic way to achieve multi-targets and goals. � To boost the R&D of advanced technologies in the transport sector with financial and tax incentives will contribute to the formulation of overall framework for environmentally sustainable society . <13>
AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model 1. Introduction 2. Analysis Results 3. Policy Implication
1. Introduction II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model � Modeling the cost of abating greenhouse gases (GHGs) is crucial to demonstrate an economy ’ s ability to reduce GHG emissions cost-effectively with specific options. � The results of the analysis are presented as marginal abatement cost curves for 2030 in transport and residential sector. � Starting year : 2001 � Ending year : 2030 � Sector : transport sector, residential sector � Area : Korea <15>
2. Analysis Results II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model - Transport sector Marginal Abatement Cost Curve Marginal Abatement Cost Curve 15 10 Won/kg-CO2 5 ost arginal C 0 0.0E+00 1.0E+12 2.0E+12 3.0E+12 4.0E+12 5.0E+12 6.0E+12 M -5 -10 -15 kg-CO2 Reduction Potential <16>
2. Analysis Results II . AIM/Enduse (MAC) Model - Transport sector Technology_name Marginal Cost Marginal Cost CPP(New) compact private passenger Cars(New) SPP(CNG) small private passenger Cars(CNG) Jeeps(LPG_New) JEEP(LPG_New) Marginal_Cost Won/kg-CO2 BL15P(LPG_New) Buses less than 15 persons(LPG_New) 12.0000 Won/kg-CO2 CPP(electricity) compact private passenger Cars(electricity) compact private passenger Cars(fuel cell- CPP(fuel cell-meth) 10.0000 meth) Large private passenger Cars(gasoline LPP(gasoline hybird) 8.0000 hybird) Large private passenger Cars(full cell- LPP(full cell-meth) meth) 6.0000 TL1(LPG_New) Trucks less than 1.0 tons(LPG_New) 4.0000 MPP(CNG) Medium private passenger Cars(CNG) Medium private passenger Cars(gasoline MPP(gasoline hybrid) 2.0000 hybrid) MPP(electricity) Medium private passenger Cars(electricity) 0.0000 BL15P(CNG) Buses less than 15 persons(CNG) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) ) w G w y w G ) y y w y ) h w h d h d G G w t t t t t e N i t r t N i N i i e e e i c N e N N c e i e r c c e e SPP(electricity) small private passenger Cars(electricity) C N b N C i N i m m b r i C r C i N m ( _ r y r P ( _ t _ ( y t ( t _ P P P ( t _ P G c - h - G h c c P e - P G P c e P P e 5 e 5 C S P e l l l n e n l l L l e L M e l 1 l L l e e 2 i l i e e e L e l E l ( ( n ( n M o P ( c i c 1 ( B ( ( o c P l i P s P E P L l P B s 5 l o l T l BM25P(CNG) Buses more than 25 persons(CNG) E P l o P P a 5 l e s s a u J 1 u M S g 1 L C u g f a f a B f ( ( M ( ( g P P ( g p P P ( P B P ( e 5 P P L P S P P e 1 C L J M M Jeep(gasoline_New) Jeeps(gasoline_New) B BM15P(Electricity) Buses more than 15 persons(Electricity) Buses more than 15 BM15P(gasoline_New) persons(gasoline_New) SPP(full cell-meth) small private passenger Cars(full cell-meth) <17>
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