SY2016 Demographic Study Manheim Central SD Resident Student - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SY2016 Demographic Study Manheim Central SD Resident Student Projections and Based on SY2016 Student Data

Work Accomplished by Davis Demographics for Manheim Central SD � Created customized data set for District � Incorporated area development projects/plans � Analyzed relevant area demographic data � Developed 10-year student forecast

Mapping the District’s Student Data Each dot represents a student’s location The last 4 years of mapped student data were analyzed.

Planning Units or Study Areas

Attendance Matrices Found in report, page 21 Elementary School of Enrollment (Where a student goes to school) TOTAL RESIDENT SCHOOL GRADE RANGE DOE RUN ELEMENTARY HC BURGARD ELEMENTARY STIEGEL ELEMENTARY STUDENTS K ‐ 4 391 378 10 3 Elementary Zone of DOE RUN ELEMENTARY (What are a student lives) Residence K ‐ 4 483 25 446 12 HC BURGARD ELEMENTARY K ‐ 4 227 6 19 202 STIEGEL ELEMENTARY K ‐ 4 1101 409 475 217 TOTAL ENROLLED RESIDENT K ‐ 4 PK 25 0 2 23 PREKINDERGARTEN K ‐ 4 2 0 2 0 OUT OF DISTRICT K ‐ 4 1 0 1 0 UNMATCHED TOTAL CAMPUS ENROLLMENT PK ‐ 4 1129 409 480 240 SY2016 Student File = STUDENTS ENROLLMENT 2016 ‐ 2017.XLSX OPEN ENROLLMENT PK ‐ 4 77 31 31 15 (STUDENTS ATTENDING FROM OUTSIDE THE SITE ZONE) PK ‐ 4 7.58% 6.53% 6.91% PERCENTAGE OF SITE OPEN ENROLLMENT PK ‐ 4 1375 500 500 375 SITE CAPACITY PK ‐ 4 82.1% 81.8% 96.0% 64.0% SITE CAPACITY PERCENTAGE H elps the District track its open enrollment distribution.

Davis Demographics Projection Methodology

MCSD Birth Counts to Reported K-class Found in report, page 12

Mobility Factors SCHOOL G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 Doe Run Elementary 1.02 1.02 1.01 1.03 1.01 1.07 1 1.02 1.12 0.99 1.01 0.78 HC Burgard Elementary 1 1.02 0.96 1.01 0.97 1 0.99 1.06 1 1.03 0.94 0.77 Stiegel Elementary 1.07 1.05 1 1.03 1.04 1.03 0.99 1.06 1.09 1.05 0.99 0.81 Found in report, page 14 DDP conducts historical student data comparisons for Study Areas where there are • no new residential development over the past five years. DDP used 4 years of mapped student data (SY2013-16) and conducts annual grade • transition analysis using an average (instead of weighted method) – more conservative approach (3 years of change). This factor helps to account for housing resales, foreclosures and apartment • migration

Student Yield Factors SFD SFA MFA APT MH Units = 6010 Units = 1328 Units = 711 Units = 782 Units = 452 All years GK-6 All years GK-6 All years GK-6 All years GK-6 All years GK-6 Students 977 Students 205 Students 133 Students 30 Students 43 SYF 0.163 SYF 0.154 SYF 0.187 SYF 0.038 SYF 0.095 SFD SFA MFA APT MH Units = 6010 Units = 1328 Units = 711 Units = 782 Units = 452 All years G7-8 All years G7-8 All years G7-8 All years G7-8 All years G7-8 Students 287 Students 55 Students 31 Students 11 Students 10 SYF 0.048 SYF 0.041 SYF 0.044 SYF 0.014 SYF 0.022 SFD SFA MFA APT MH Units = 6010 Units = 1328 Units = 711 Units = 782 Units = 452 All years G9-12 All years G9-12 All years G9-12 All years G9-12 All years G9-12 Students 614 Students 95 Students 64 Students 33 Students 16 SYF 0.102 SYF 0.072 SYF 0.090 SYF 0.042 SYF 0.035 *Student Generation Study was conducted by DDP. Data was based on the 2016 student data and county assessor data. Found in report, page 15

Active or Planned Residential Development Active or Planned Residential Builds (10/2016 – 10/2019) Location Map is in next slide

Found in report, pages 18-19 As 12/14/2016 Active or Planned Residential Development

Projections for Each Study Area

Projections for Each Attendance Area These are simply the summation of all of the individual Study Area projections that make up each attendance area.

District-wide 10-Year Projections – Residential Students Impact from Mobility Larger ES student counts will make up growth in MS and HS next 10 years Impact from Development

District-wide 10-Year Projected Enrollment Total Enrollment of the District Resident Sub Totals 1,061 1,064 1,078 1,126 1,175.0 1,186.8 1,226.6 1,251.4 1,265.5 1,246.1 1,246.7 1,249.6 1,249.7 1,248.6 PK-4 861 870 882 867 923.3 925.4 913.7 932.7 940.2 970.3 1,014.0 1,036.8 1,050.6 1,028.8 5-8 901 896 881 945 922.8 956.1 956.9 933.6 967.3 975.0 961.2 976.8 983.8 1,026.4 9-12 2,823 2,830 2,841 2,938 3,021.1 3,068.3 3,097.2 3,117.7 3,173.0 3,191.4 3,221.9 3,263.2 3,284.1 3,303.8 PK-12 0 1 1 1 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 PK-4 Unmatched 0 1 2 2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 5-8 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9-12 0 2 3 3 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 PK-12 8 8 3 2 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 PK-4 Out-of-District 10 5 4 1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 5-8 13 12 8 10 9.8 10.1 10.1 9.9 10.2 10.3 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.9 9-12 31 25 15 13 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.5 14.6 PK-12 1,069 1,073 1,082 1,129 1,178.1 1,190.0 1,229.9 1,254.7 1,268.9 1,249.4 1,250.0 1,252.9 1,253.0 1,251.9 PK-4 871 876 888 870 926.5 928.6 916.9 935.9 943.5 973.7 1,017.5 1,040.4 1,054.2 1,032.4 5-8 Totals 914 908 889 955 932.6 966.2 967.0 943.5 977.5 985.3 971.4 987.1 994.2 1,037.3 9-12 2,854 2,857 2,859 2,954 3,037.2 3,084.8 3,113.8 3,134.1 3,189.9 3,208.4 3,238.9 3,280.5 3,301.5 3,321.5 PK-12 Green = Peak or Highest Count

District Historic Enrollment and Ten-Year Projections Found in report, page 34

Forecasted Change in Elementary Area 2016-2026 Found in report, page 26

Found in report, page 37

Manheim Central HS Attendance Area Projected Resident Student 1050 1026.4 1000 983.8 976.8 975 967.3 961.2 956.9 956.1 945 950 933.6 922.8 901 896 900 881 850 800 SY2013 SY2014 SY2015 SY2016 SY2017 SY2018 SY2019 SY2020 SY2021 SY2022 SY2023 SY2024 SY2025 SY2026 Found in report, page 41

Doe Run HC Burgard Net K-4 Growth/Decline in Current Attendance Areas of Manheim Central SD - 2016 to 2026

Stiegel Net K-4 Growth/Decline in Current Attendance Areas of Manheim Central SD - 2016 to 2026

Manheim Central MS Manheim Central HS Net Growth/Decline in Current Attendance Areas of Manheim Central SD - 2016 to 2026

Summary � The student population for the Manheim Central SD is expected to increase annually the next ten years. � There are eight known active and planned housing projects in the district, adding an estimated 133 new housing units over the next three years. � MCSD Elementary schools will have the biggest gain in SY2017 � 49 students. � Middle school is expected to experience the highest growth of three district grade configurations � 18.7% . � High school student population will peak at 1026 counts in SY2026.

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