Sustainability Be effective, not nice Keith Clarke
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This is about...... YOU as a professional, i.e. designer of built environment 3
NOT ABOUT YOUR LIFESTYLE 4
You may choose 1. Cycle 2. Eat meat once a week 3. Wash clothes at 30 °c 4. Recycle 5. Invest in green funds 6. Limit flying... ....and...and.... 5
THIS IS ABOUT WHAT YOU WILL DESIGN 6
Sustainability • Basic – WWF ‘One World’ • Triple bottom line • CSR – Corporate Social Responsibility 7
Sustainability • Leftish • Fairness • Simpler lives ? • Vaguely anti-International Corporation • Widely used to improve ‘image’ 8
Sustainability • Fundamentally correct • Has not succeeded as a movement 9
Two game-changers 1. Population 2. Climate change 10
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Climate change is real • Stern Report • Inconvenient Truth • IPCC Reports • Royal Society 12
Copenhagen Accord below 2 degrees Celsius a comprehensive adaptation programme including international support.
IPCC Temperature Rise Equilibrium global average temperature increase 10 95 above pre-industrial ( ° C) 8 percentile 6 Median 4 5 percentile 2 PPM 300 400 500 600 700 800 1000 GHG concentration stabilisation level (ppm CO 2 (e))
Decarbonising the World Delaying Mitigation is Dangerous and Costly 100 • Stabilising below 450ppm CO2e would 90 require emissions to peak by 2010 with 6-10% p.a. decline thereafter 80 Global Emissions (GtCO2e) • If emissions peak in 2020, we can stabilise 70 below 550ppm CO2e if we achieve annual declines of 1 – 2.5% afterward 60 • 50 A 10 year delay almost doubles the annual rate of decline required 40 30 50GtCO2e 20 65GtCO2e 10 70GtCO2e 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 450ppm CO2e 500ppm CO2e 550ppm CO2e Business as Usual (falling to 450ppm CO2e in 2150)
80% UK Carbon Reduction Commitment 0% 20% 21% 100% Reduction 34% 40% 46% 60% 65% 80% 80% 100% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
5 yr UK Carbon Budgets Budgets 21% cut already achieved Projections including Transition Plan policies Million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO 2 e) 600 Jan Projected trajectory to 2010 UK emissions targets 550 500 2020 34% CUT REQUIRED 450 BUDGET 1 BUDGET 2 BUDGET 3 (2008-2012) (2013-2017) (2018-2022) 3018 Mt CO 2 e 2782 Mt CO 2 e 2544 Mt CO 2 e 400 2008 2013 2018 Source: Department for Energy & Climate Change
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UNCERTAINTY CONSEQUENCES 24
2° c ± appears inevitable 25
Can we create economic growth not fuelled by fossil fuel ? 26
40 years changed the world 27
10 years introduce CO 2 E significant design constraint 28
10 years introduce CO 2 E significant design constraint 29
Ignore bankers i t’s engineering that matters 30
How do you become effective ? (you can still be nice) 31
Don’t boil the ocean 32
Do comparators 33
Be prepared to be wrong 34
Thank you 35
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