Sustainability Transition CREATIVE APOCALYPSE NOW CREATIVE APOCALYPSE NOW GREAT SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION BEGINS TODAY GREAT SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION BEGINS TODAY GREAT SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION BEGINS TODAY � The The “ “End End” ” of History, Science, Art, Religion, etc.: exhaustion of History, Science, Art, Religion, etc.: exhaustion � � Maximum Maximum “ “ennui ennui” ” point is just behind us: beginning point is just behind us: beginning “ “agitation agitation” ” � � Transition maximum is still (qualitatively) far ahead of us Transition maximum is still (qualitatively) far ahead of us � OPPOSITION TO TRANSITION CHANGES: LOSSES OPPOSITION TO TRANSITION CHANGES: LOSSES OPPOSITION TO TRANSITION CHANGES: LOSSES � Discreteness: Transition Discreteness: Transition is is a result of a result of all all system interactions system interactions � � One cannot overcome the (dynamic) entropy growth One cannot overcome the (dynamic) entropy growth � � Unsuccessful transition is replaced by a Unsuccessful transition is replaced by a death branch death branch � UNDERSTANDING OF TRANSITION DETAILS: GAINS UNDERSTANDING OF TRANSITION DETAILS: GAINS UNDERSTANDING OF TRANSITION DETAILS: GAINS � Universal science of complexity Universal science of complexity → → rigorous rigorous , reliable futurology , reliable futurology � http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0509234 http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0509234
“progress” vs “decline” period of period of period of period of dynamic entropy change, ∆ ∆ S S , progress decline progress decline ∆ S/ ∆ t = H, E Hamiltonian (energy), ∆ S/ ∆ t = H, E For both both “ “progress progress” ” and and “ “decline decline” ”: : For ∂ S ∂ t H = H = ∂ S / / ∂ t > 0 > 0 ∆ S ∆ S Progressive development (creation) : Progressive development (creation) : 2 > 0 W = = ∂ ∂ H H / / ∂ ∂ t t = = ∂ ∂ 2 2 S S / / ∂ ∂ t t 2 > 0 W Decline (decay, degradation) : : Decline (decay, degradation) 2 < 0 = ∂ ∂ H ∂ t ∂ 2 2 S ∂ t t 2 W = W H / / ∂ t = = ∂ S / / ∂ < 0 Max progress results ( progress results (“ “happiness happiness” ”): ): Max death branch 2 = 0, 2 < 0 ∂ H ∂ t ∂ 2 2 S ∂ t t 2 ∂ 2 2 H ∂ t t 2 ∂ H / / ∂ t = = ∂ S / / ∂ = 0, ∂ H / / ∂ < 0 Max decay results ( decay results (“ “ennui ennui” ”): ): Max H H 2 = 0, 2 > 0 ∂ H H / / ∂ ∂ t t = = ∂ ∂ 2 2 S S / / ∂ ∂ t t 2 = 0, ∂ ∂ 2 2 H H / / ∂ ∂ t t 2 > 0 ∂ Transition max max ( (“ “moment of truth moment of truth” ”): ): Transition 2 = 0, 3 < 0 ∂ 2 2 H ∂ t t 2 ∂ 3 3 H ∂ t t 3 ∂ H / / ∂ = 0, ∂ H / / ∂ < 0 Decline crisis (“ “moment of sin moment of sin” ”): ): Decline crisis ( time, t t 2 = 0, 3 > 0 ∂ 2 2 H ∂ t t 2 ∂ 3 3 H ∂ t t 3 ∂ H / / ∂ = 0, ∂ H / / ∂ > 0 moments of happiness moments of ennui
New kind of knowledge SCIENCE REVOLUTION: UNREDUCED COMPLEXITY SCIENCE REVOLUTION: UNREDUCED COMPLEXITY BLIND (EMPIRICALLY BASED), BUT OMNIPOTENT R&D: REAL DANGER BLIND (EMPIRICALLY BASED), BUT OMNIPOTENT R&D: REAL DANGER � Today Today’ ’s empirical technology modifies the s empirical technology modifies the whole depth whole depth of complexity: of complexity: � high energies, genomics, biochemistry, ecosystem, society, psyche psyche high energies, genomics, biochemistry, ecosystem, society, Without equally complete knowledge only destruction Without equally complete knowledge only destruction can result can result CAUSALLY COMPLETE UNDERSTANDING OF REALITY: NO “ “MODELS MODELS” ” CAUSALLY COMPLETE UNDERSTANDING OF REALITY: NO � Scholar science is an ultimately rough, Scholar science is an ultimately rough, dynamically single dynamically single- -valued valued � “model model” ” of the of the dynamically multivalued reality dynamically multivalued reality : : anti anti - -completeness, completeness, “ including single- -valued imitations of empirically defined valued imitations of empirically defined “ “complexity complexity” ” including single Transition to the unreduced, complex dynamics is vitally vitally important: important: Transition to the unreduced, complex dynamics is One cannot fool Nature (contrary to funding bodies and taxpayers) One cannot fool Nature (contrary to funding bodies and taxp ayers) ONLY UNREDUCED KNOWLEDGE FOR SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION ONLY UNREDUCED KNOWLEDGE FOR SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION � Universal science of complexity for the Universal science of complexity for the “ “knowledge knowledge- -based society based society” ” � Only unreduced science can guide the transition to sustainable life Only unreduced science can guide the transition to sustainable l ife http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/9806002 http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/9806002
Complexity-increasing production GROWTH WITHOUT DESTRUCTION GROWTH WITHOUT DESTRUCTION FROM DESTRUCTION TO CREATION BY COMPLEXITY BOOST FROM DESTRUCTION TO CREATION BY COMPLEXITY BOOST � From From declining to progressive phase: transition to superior complexi declining to progressive phase: transition to superior complexity ty � � Complexity Complexity- -driven driven technologies: technologies: “ “bio bio- -inspired inspired” ” complexity growth complexity growth � Creative , not restrictive ecology concept , not restrictive ecology concept → → real sustainability real sustainability Creative 2 >> UNIVERSAL CRITERION OF PROGRESS: ∂ ∂ H H / / ∂ ∂ t t = = ∂ ∂ 2 2 S S / / ∂ ∂ t t 2 >> W W death UNIVERSAL CRITERION OF PROGRESS: death � Self Self- -accelerated complexity development: accelerated complexity development: sustainability by creation sustainability by creation � � Against Against “ “sustainability sustainability” ” by restriction: entropy growth is invincible by restriction: entropy growth is invincible � Unreduced science of complexity: unique basis for new production Unreduced science of complexity: unique basis for new production HUMAN ASPECTS OF NEW PRODUCTION: CREATIVE PERSONALITY HUMAN ASPECTS OF NEW PRODUCTION: CREATIVE PERSONALITY � From massive and reductive to From massive and reductive to individual individual and and creative creative technology technology � � From From centralised and rigid to centralised and rigid to distributed distributed and and evolving evolving structure structure � Complexity- Complexity -driven production involves essential driven production involves essential personal progress personal progress http://hal.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ccsd- http://hal.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ccsd -00004214 00004214
Non-unitary social structure ORDER WITHOUT GOVERNMENT: POWER OF IDEAS ORDER WITHOUT GOVERNMENT: POWER OF IDEAS FROM UNITARY TO HARMONICAL SYSTEM: THE LAST BASTILLE FROM UNITARY TO HARMONICAL SYSTEM: THE LAST BASTILLE � Versions of Unitary System: totalitarian, democratic, meritocr Versions of Unitary System: totalitarian, democratic, meritocratic atic � � Harmonical System: Harmonical System: emerging emerging social order (cf. social order (cf. “ “market economy market economy” ”) ) � Sustainability Transition: from Unitary to Harmonical complexity complexity Sustainability Transition: from Unitary to Harmonical HARMONICAL SYSTEM: UNREDUCED INTERACTION COMPLEXITY HARMONICAL SYSTEM: UNREDUCED INTERACTION COMPLEXITY � Autonomous evolution of interacting (small) Autonomous evolution of interacting (small) “ “management management” ” units units � ≠ “ ≠ “NGO NGO” ” or or “ “free free- -market market” ” structures structures within within the Unitary System the Unitary System � Superior democracy Superior democracy : real, inevitable extension of unitary : real, inevitable extension of unitary “ “freedom freedom” ” � Harmonical System is the unique unique way of way of any any further progress further progress Harmonical System is the THE PRICE TO PAY FOR HAPPINESS: DISTRIBUTED REVOLUTION THE PRICE TO PAY FOR HAPPINESS: DISTRIBUTED REVOLUTION � High High- -order order “ “phase transition phase transition” ”: growing : growing “ “seeds of freedom seeds of freedom” ” network network � Complexity- -based origin of Harmonical Future based origin of Harmonical Future → → new science bliss new science bliss Complexity NEW SCIENCE STRUCTURE NEW SCIENCE STRUCTURE � http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0403084 http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0403084 �
Replete Industry: Critical Instability UNITARY SYSTEM: DEATH BY SUCCESS UNITARY SYSTEM: DEATH BY SUCCESS social social spinning top position position industrial revolution industrial revolution dynamics labour middle class elite attraction ” attraction STABLE UNSTABLE STABLE UNSTABLE material basis basis to material gravitational” “gravitational to “ pre- pre -industrial unitary society industrial unitary society post- post -industrial unitary society industrial unitary society sustainability transition sustainability transition complexity growth complexity growth AFTER SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION AFTER SUSTAINABILITY TRANSITION unlimited unlimited GROWTH CAN ONLY INCREASE STABILITY: GROWTH CAN ONLY INCREASE STABILITY: “ “LIVING ARBORESCENCE LIVING ARBORESCENCE” ” DYNAMICS DYNAMICS
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