STRATEGIC PREVENTION PROJECT Assessing the Role of Foreign Assistance in Preventing Violent Conflict in Fragile States | 2019 OFFICE OF U.S. FOREIGN ASSISTANCE RESOURCES Strategic, Coordinated, Effective Foreign Assistance 1 on Behalf of the American People UNCLASSIFIED
KEY RESEARCH QUESTIONS 1. Under what circumstances does foreign assistance best contribute to the goal of making fragile states more secure and resilient against risks of violent conflict and instability? 2. How can we measure the extent to which foreign assistance being provided to fragile states is contributing to this goal? 3. What reforms would enable a greater proportion of foreign assistance to fragile states to contribute to this goal (or at least not inhibit it)? 2 UNCLASSIFIED
THE STRATEGIC CASE FOR PREVENTION Aid to fragile states has grown In 2018, the UN & World Bank $ by 26% since 2009, while the estimated that donors would number of countries save $16 over the long run for experiencing violent conflict each $1 invested in prevention- increased by 22% during that related activities. time. OECD, UCDP Pathways for Peace “…even modest preventive Overall respect for the rule of law investments – if they strategic, has decreased in most states for coordinated, and well-timed – the second straight year. Indicators of authoritanism, can reduce the risk that corruption, and repression have extremist will exploit fragile states.” also increased. World Justice Project, Freedom House USIP Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States Malign actors exploit host Preventing conflict in strategic nation’s fragility to subvert locations is essential to protect political institutions, gain U.S. investments and alliances economic and infrastructure and mitigate the need for costly access, and increase military interventions. influence. 3 UNCLASSIFIED
ABOUT THE PROJECT Phase 1: Literature review and Interviews of over 100 experts on best practices on preventing conflict and instability in fragile states Phase 2: Mixed-method pattern analysis of historic assistance spending for 11 case study fragile countries in light of best practices Phase 3: Development of recommendations to improve future foreign assistance to high- risk fragile states 4 UNCLASSIFIED
EFFECTIVE COMPONENTS OF PREVENTION (PHASE 1) Promote inclusive and just Increase institutional Strengthen pro-peace political systems that foster resilience to shocks and constituencies and mechanisms. social cohesion. threats. Improve the “ease of doing Strengthen election administration, ● ● Enhance capacity for equitable ● business” climate for small and management, and monitoring. access to security and justice as medium sized enterprises. Promote government “checks and public goods. ● balances” ( e.g., government Foster sustainable government ● Support social and economic ● parliament capacity, independent investments in education, linkages across different judiciary, media, civil society especially secondary communities. watchdogs). education. ● Elevate addressing the needs of Advocate for and invest in the role of ● Support local civil society ● marginalized groups, especially capacities, especially for women in political, economic, and ethnic and religious minorities, security institutions. mediation and alternative women, and youth. dispute resolution Leverage disaster risk reduction ● Support institutional reforms in ● strategies and mechanisms . Augment regional early warning ● governance functions to increase and early action mechanisms. legitimacy. The literature shows that both the kind of approach taken toward conflict prevention and the quality and method of intervention matter for impact. How assistance is delivered can either reduce or reinforce group divisions. 5 UNCLASSIFIED
ANALYSIS OF ASSISTANCE SPENDING (PHASE 2) ODA per Capita and Changes in Levels of Violence, 2007-2016 2.5 Ukraine Change in Violence & Instability Mali 2.0 Less Violent 1.5 In most fragile states, the United Tunisia 1.0 States and other international Niger donors have not identified 0.5 Jordan Kenya prevention of violent conflict and 0.0 Honduras $0 $500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 More Violent Pe … instability as an explicit goal for Bosnia -0.5 assistance. Indonesia -1.0 Nepal -1.5 Net ODA per capita International ODA per capita USG ODA per capita Source: OECD DAC Development Finance Data; World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators Net ODA to Select Fragile States by Sector 2007-2016 Economic Growth International ODA USG ODA Health A significant proportion of foreign 10% 14% 16% Education and Social Services 7% assistance to fragile states has been 4% 35% Humanitarian 7% devoted to economic growth, education 10% Assistance Democracy, Human and social services, and health, without 10% Rights, & 31% Governance 20% stated links to prevention. Peace and Security 12% 6% 18% Other / Multi- Sector Source: OECD DAC Development Finance Data 6 UNCLASSIFIED
ANALYSIS OF ASSISTANCE SPENDING (PHASE 2) U.S. Foreign Assistance to Fragile States, 2007-2016 $30 $25 Constant Year 2016 $Billions $20 Levels of assistance to program areas $15 directly linked to prevention of violent conflict have varied considerably across fragile $10 states but have remained constant overall. $5 $- 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Conflict Prevention Related Sectors Other, Including Military Source: USAID Foreign Aid Explorer 19% 16% 19% Peru 5% Honduras Indonesia 20% Jordan Ukraine Foreign assistance is most effective as a 5% tool of prevention when it is closely In the 11 focus countries, conflict 20% prevention-related assistance ranged from coordinated with diplomacy and incentivizes Mali 3% to 59% of total U.S. Nepal host-nation reform agendas. foreign assistance. 4% 29% Kenya 3% Tunisia 59% Bosnia & Niger Herzegovina 7 UNCLASSIFIED
ANALYSIS OF ASSISTANCE SPENDING (PHASE 2) Focus on Prevention Principles: Alignment of U.S. and International Assistance Plans, 2007-2016 The United States and other international donors have incorporated some strategic prevention principles in assistance to fragile states, but other key principles have been seldom applied (e.g., political inclusion, social cohesion). Intergroup Cohesion and Patterns of Violence Nepal Indonesia Jordan Peru Honduras Bosnia & Herzegovina Kenya Niger Tunisia Ukraine Mali Improved Worsened -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Change in Violence Change in Factionalization & Group Grievance Source: Charts are based upon an analysis of U.S. and international partner strategic documents from 2007-2016, averaged Source: World Bank Worldwide Governance Indicators; Fragile States Index across the eleven focus countries. 8 UNCLASSIFIED
DEEP DIVE: KENYA (PHASE 2) Assistance Trends International assistance to Kenya increased dramatically International Assistance and Assessed Risk of Instability following the 2007 elections and remained at high levels in $3.5 4.5 subsequent years until it dropped off after the 2013 elections. Constant Year 2016 $ Billions An estimated 8% of international development assistance was $3.0 Widespread Violence after 4.0 al-Shabab Attack Disputed Elections & Deadly Riots related to areas most associated with conflict prevention. Constitutional Peaceful National $2.5 3.5 Referendum Election $2.0 3.0 Findings $1.5 2.5 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 In the lead-up to elections and other transition 1. ODA Violence & Political Instability periods, coordinated diplomacy at both the capital and sub-national levels can help monitor flashpoints Total Assistance Spending to Kenya 2006-2016 and provide a critical link between political messaging $9 and assistance. $8 Constant Year 2016 $ Billions $7 The business community can be a powerful and far- 2. $6 reaching force for peace but in many contexts is often $5 an underutilized resource. $4 Operational efforts to prevent conflict in the short $3 3. term should be balanced with longer-term efforts to $2 address group grievances. $1 Health Economic Humanitarian Other / Education Democracy, Peace & Growth Assistance Multi-Sector & Social Human Rights, & Security Services Governance International ODA USG Foreign Assistance 9 UNCLASSIFIED
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