Step Up or Step Out CMLA Presentation 01.March.18
Agenda Up? Down? Up then Down? Down then Up? Threats to Your Business It’s Not About Rate. Play to Your Strengths. Strategery. Yes, Strategery. Leaders are Readers oh, and one more thing
UP? Down? Up and then Down? Down and then Up?
60 Year Housing Trend 5% Appreciation 4
Denver vs 4% Appreciation 4% Appreciation Denver Avg 500,000 375,000 250,000 125,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 5
Unemployment Rate During Bubble US Unemployment Rate (2005-2016) Housing Bubble = 7.3% Today = 5% 6
Media Wants 2 Million Starts Again Housing Starts (2000-2016) 2.2 Million Starts = Housing Bubble 1.2 Million Starts = Healthy 7
Homeownership Rates Housing Bubble - Nearly 70% Now - Only 63% 8
Inventory Oversupply = Housing Bubble Nearly Half Inventory 9 1994
The Next Wave 10
Direction of Home Values We are NOT in a “Bubble” Nationally, housing has a lot of “dry powder” Appreciation rates in the greater Denver market will plateau over several years We are gradually becoming less affordable to other markets Investors focus on a buy and hold strategy
Threats to Your Business Fed slowing its purchases by $4B per quarter beginning 10/17 EU Central Bank cut purchases by 50% Less Purchase support = Rise in Rates Between 2016 and 2017, when rates rose by 40bp the refi market was cut in HALF
Threats to Your Business What if rates go from 4.25% to 4.5% or even 4.75% by year end? Where did that Rocket come from? GREAT NEWS: people are still getting Married, Un-Married, having Babies and getting rid of Babies
Threats to Your Business What can we learn from other industries? Online Stock Trading vs Wall Street Had to treat it like a career instead of a … J-O-B. Play to Your Strengths
It’s Not About Rate… Competence Communication Trust
Play to Your Strengths Give your Realtors what they want, they might bring you business. Solve their problem, they will bring you the world. What are their problems? especially the ones they do not know are problems. Same questions for your Borrowers.
Play to Your Strengths Coach to Areas of Concern. New Tax Law. Are we in a Bubble? How’s the Market? Coach to value of Homeownership First Time Homebuyer Workshops. Contract Negotiation Strategies to win competitive offer situations
Strategery See Handout
Play to Your Strengths Be an Exceptional Communicator…with your Realtor AND your Borrower Now and Forever Do What You Say You Will Do Common Sense is NOT Common Practice
Leaders are Readers Love is the Killer App How to Win Friends and Influence People Think and Grow Rich The Go-Giver The Compound Effect Ninja Selling
Leaders are Readers The Fine Art of Small Talk The Happiness Advantage Humans Are Underrated On Fire The Richest Man in Babylon The Energy Bus
Just One More Thing…
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