Solid Waste Forecast FY 2017 – 18 Review of methods, process and results January 19, 2017
Paul Slyman Director of Property & Environmental Services 2
Solid Waste Forecast FY 2017-18 www.oregonmetro.gov/solid-waste-forecast 3
Agenda 1. Purpose and Uses of the Solid Waste Forecast 2. Internal Review Process 3. Methods and Assumptions 4. Results 5. Question & Answer Period 4
Purposes of SW Forecast 2 Estimating Costs & Revenues 1 Setting Solid Waste Rates 3 Establishing Allocation Bases 4 Aiding Other Planning Functions 5
Review Process Questionnaire 1 4 - Distributed internally - Solicits key forecast assumptions Final Forecast (early Oct) - Forms basis for preliminary forecast Each Year Preliminary Forecast 2 1 - Based on Office of Economic 3 Analysis (OEA) 3 rd quarter economic Questionnaire FRP Review outlook & questionnaire feedback (mid Aug) (mid Sep) Forecast Review Panel 3 2 - SW directors, Metro economist Preliminary - Meet to review preliminary forecast Forecast - Forms basis for final forecast (mid Sep) OEA Q3 Final Forecast 4 Economic - Distributed to all stakeholders Outlook 6
Methods & Assumptions Generation Expectations Regional Economic Generation Forecast 7
Methods & Assumptions Generation 1 Labor Markets 1% ∆ Employment ~ 1% ∆ Generation 2 Home Prices 1% ∆ Home Price ~ 1/3% ∆ Generation 3 Construction Sources: Oregon DEQ 2014 Oregon Material Recovery and Waste Generation Rates Report Metro Solid Waste Information System National Bureau of Economic Research 1% ∆ Res. Starts~ 1/10% ∆ Generation Sources: 1) Bureau of Labor Statistics ( Oregon total non-farm ) 8 2) FHFA (Oregon home price index) 3) US Census BPS (Oregon residential house starts)
Methods & Assumptions Generation OEA Economic Outlook – June 2016 + Expectation = 9
Methods & Assumptions Source-separation & Discards Source-Sep All Other SOI (4) Regional Src. Sep Economic Rate Generation Forecast Discards Wet Dry New Diversion 10
Methods & Assumptions Source-separation & Discards Generation Source-separation Discards (Delivery) 37% Source-separation 47% 49% Post-collection recovery 4 – 6% 6% Recovery Credits ~60% Regional Recovery Rate 11
Methods & Assumptions Source-separation & Discards New Residential FW/YD Programs • Recent programs – Cities of Forest Grove, Lake Oswego • Likely programs – Cities of West Linn, Gresham, and WA County • 3,400 tons per year additional diversion – by CY 2018 New Commercial FW Programs • Metro program under development • City of Portland program – Spring 2018 (Phase 1) – Spring 2021 (Phase 4) • 23,000 tons per year additional diversion – by CY 2021/22 12
Methods & Assumptions Source-separation & Discards 13
Methods & Assumptions Facility distributions Operational Market Changes Source-Sep Changes All Other Facility 1 SOI (4) Regional Src. Sep Facility Economic Facility … Rate Dists. Generation Forecast Discards Facility N Wet Dry Reg. Allocs. 14
Methods & Assumptions Facility distributions Status Quo for Mixed Dry and Commercial FW MRF Categories (ECR, Greenway, Suttle) (Aloha, CORE, KB, NW Shingle(s), Foster) 15
Methods & Assumptions Facility distributions Forest Grove Gresham Residential FW/YD Unincorp WA County Lake Oswego 16 West Linn
Methods & Assumptions Facility distributions Putrescible 17
Methods & Assumptions Post-collection Recovery New Tech Recovery Continued… Facility Post Col. Discards Recovery Waste End Facility Op Market Issues Issues 18
Methods & Assumptions Post-collection Recovery Generation Source-separation Delivery Post-col. Recovery Disposal 5 - 6% 3 - 4% 4% Post-collection Diversion 70K tons 100K tons 125K tons 19
Methods & Assumptions Post-collection Recovery 20
Methods & Assumptions Post-collection Recovery Notes (ECR, Greenway, Suttle) (Aloha, CORE, KB, NW Shingle(s), Foster) 21
Methods & Assumptions Disposal Flow Recovery Guarantee Continued… Enforce Facility Post Col. Discards Recovery Disp. Site 1 Disp. Site Waste Disp. Site... Dists. Disp. Site N New Contracts Disposal Options 22
Methods & Assumptions Main Assumptions • Status quo assumed (Riverbend/Columbia Ridge an option, Waste Management disposal contractor, Flow Guarantee enforced) • Cowlitz County Landfill comes into mix for waste • Flow Guarantee excludes private waste post-2019 23
Results Tonnage Focus Areas • Model produces over 40 time series • Tonnage focus areas: 1. Core delivery tonnage (wet and dry discards) 2. Revenue tonnage (discards subject to solid waste fees and taxes) 3. Wet allocatable tonnage 24
Results Core Delivery Tonnage 25
Results Core Delivery Tonnage 26
Results Revenue Tonnage 27
Results Allocation Tonnage 28
Summary • Economy grows but slower in 2017 and beyond • Generation growth shifts to long-run trend growth • Additional food source-separation minimal and comes later in 2018 • Post-collection recovery declines stabilize mid-2017 • Discards continue strong near-term growth, then slower growth 29
Questions? Joel.Sherman@oregonmetro.gov | 503.797.1668 30
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