September 13, 2019 Celinda Lake Lake Research Partners Washington, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Ladies & Poli,cs: A Conversa,on and Call to Ac,on to Engage, Educate, and Empower Black Women Voters September 13, 2019 Celinda Lake Lake Research Partners Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY lakeresearch.com 202.776.9066

Black voters—and the rising American electorate, more broadly—is expanding dramaGcally, comprising ever larger shares of the total electorate in presidenGal elecGons. Much of the overall growth has been fueled by Millennial voters and voters of color. Share of electorate, presidenGal elecGons 100% 6.0% 7.4% 8.4% 9.2% 10.3% 90% 11.1% 12.3% 12.4% 13.4% 13.4% 80% 6.5% 1.9% 5.8% 12.5% 70% 16.9% 22.8% 60% 21.5% 50% 40% 61.2% 55.8% 30% 51.7% 46.5% 40.5% 20% 10% 0% 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 (ProjecGon) Non-RAE Millennials Gen Z African American La,nx 2 Source: CPS November 2018

Black voters—Black women especially—voted for Democrats by overwhelming margins in the recent midterm elecGons, and were once again a key reason for the Party’s electoral success. Maintaining these margins while also increasing turnout will be crucial ahead of 2020. 2016 Vote Among AA Women Midterm Vote By Race/Gender 94% Clinton 4% Trump 2% Other/3 rd Party White Men White Women Black Men La,no Women Black Women La,no Men (35%) (37%) (5%) (6%) (6%) (5%) 92 88 73 63 60 49 49 39 34 26 12 7 DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP DEM GOP 3 Source: hXps://www.cnn.com/elecGon/2018/exit-polls

Black women overwhelmingly prefer Democrats to Republicans on the generic 2020 Congressional ballot, though with more than one-in-five undecided, and engagement levels that trail white voters’ slightly, generaGng and maintaining enthusiasm will be an ongoing priority for campaigns. 2020 Generic Congressional Ballot Likelihood to vote Among Black women Total Black men Black women Whites 69 84 82 78 67 23 26 7 17 1 0 14 14 6 16 4 3 Republican Lean Undecided Lean Democrat Extremely likely Very likely Somewhat likely Republican Democrat 4 Source: LRP/Tarrance Group BaXle Ground Poll 1010 Likely 2020 Voters NaGonwide

MobilizaGon remains vital in engaging and turning out voters in any elecGon. In 2016, we saw a decline in voter turnout among black voters, as well as non-white voters as a whole. The decline in voter turnout in 2016 from 2012 is aXributed to less mobilizaGon, among other factors. 5 Source: Pew Research Center

While black women fluctuated when it came to their view of the country’s direc9on under President Obama, they have shi=ed to being solidly nega9ve under President Trump. Direc,on of Country (Among Black Women) 125 90 100 98 91 75 52 46 50 37 57 34 48 41 25 31 4 23 1 15 0 9 8 7 5 2 1 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Right Direc,on Wrong Track Unsure 6 Source: Lake Research/Tarrance Group, BaXleground Poll

Black women are noGceably more nervous about the current trajectory of the naGonal economy than other demographic subgroups, with over 6-in-10 very worried about an imminent economic downturn. How Worried Are You About a Possible Economic Downturn? Total White Hispanic Black men Black women 62 48 41 36 35 28 16 27 25 24 22 19 19 16 16 15 14 8 7 5 Very worried Somewhat worried Not too worried Not at all worried 7 Source: LRP/Tarrance Group BaXle Ground Poll 1010 Likely 2020 Voters NaGonwide

When it comes to their issue agenda, Black women place racial inequality on par with economic concerns as their most pressing prioriGes, followed closely by concerns over health care. When assessing the two parGes on the issues, Black women prefer Democrats substanGally across the board, though the margins are narrower on naGonal security and dealing with special interests. Which party do you trust more on the following issues? Top Issues among Black women Among Black women Don’t Republicans Democrats Know 29 Racial Inequality 14 81 Jobs 5 16 64 The economy 16 21 11 79 Healthcare Taxes 0 7 68 EducaGon 25 Growing gap between 7 85 Healthcare 5 18 the rich and poor 11 74 ImmigraGon 10 30% 22 51 NaGonal Security 0 11 The Economy 22 56 Special Interests 14 8 Source: LRP/Tarrance Group BaXle Ground Poll 1010 Likely 2020 Voters NaGonwide Source: Sep 17-Oct2 2018 American Values Survey of 2,509 adults (age 18 and up) living in the United States

Black voters across gender, age, and party lines strongly support candidates with clear plans aimed at advancing economic opportuniGes and improved working condiGons for Black Americans. Black voters as a whole also want to see policies aimed at materially improving wages, benefits, and job training, as well as fighGng employment and wage discriminaGon. 9 Source: Hart Research and Brossard Research on behalf of the Black Economic Alliance, N=1003 Black adults naGonwide, including 503 interviews conducted by phone and 500 conducted online, May 17-28, 2019.

Black women voters register commanding support for criminal jusGce reforms that move money away from incarceraGon and towards community-based public safety programs. Support is also quite high for a Medicare for All health care system. Though support is less intense, in part because the plans around a Green New Deal are less defined, a solid majority of Black women voters also supports transiGoning towards 100% clean energy over the next 10 years. Moving Funds from IncarceraGon Generate 100% of the naGons' Medicare for All Healthcare Plan to Community-Based Public energy from clean sources within Among all Black voters Safety Programs 10 years Among Black women Among Black women 86 80 58 29 13 8 7 7 7 6 Support Oppose Undecided Favor Oppose Not sure Refused Support Oppose Undecided 10 Source: LRP October 2017 poll of 800 likely voters naGonwide Source: LRP survey of 1000 likely voters naGonwide Source: LRP survey 700 likely voters naGonwide

Where Black Women Vote, Representa,on Follows US House of RepresentaGves, 2018 Across the country, black women are running for higher office—and winning. Black women ran House campaigns in 21 different states in 2018. The women who won are widely distributed throughout the U.S., which suggests there are divergent routes and offices for aspiring candidates. Source: Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings. hXps://www.brookings.edu/research/black-women-are-looking-forward-to-the-2020-elecGons/

Black Total Black Women 18+ AND % Total Black Popula,on Share of Black Vo,ng Age City Popula,on Popula,on Share Popula,on for Black women Birmingham (AL) 212,424 152,952 72% 223,657 54.9% Majority-black ciGes remain an influenGal block Mobile (AL) 193,717 98,017 50.6% 166,871 55.3% of black electoral power for statewide races. Thirty-four Montgomery (AL) 201,717 119,783 59.4% 102,188 55.1% states will hold senate Albany (GA) 75,657 54,673 72.3% 56,772 54.3% races in 2020. Several of the most compeGGve of Atlanta (GA) 456,378 239,005 52.4% 51,114 55.5% these states contain at least one majority-black Savannah (GA) 144,717 78,344 54.1% 44,469 55.9% city (with at least 50,000 residents) where voter Detroit (MI) 683,443 544,427 79.7% 32,110 55.5% turnout could significantly Flint (MI) 98,918 53,757 54.3% 29,019 55.2% impact the outcomes of those races. Rocky Mount (NC) 56,175 35,248 62.7% 16,227 52.5% DeSoto (TX) 51,854 36,133 69.7% 14,563 57.3% 12 Source: Metropolitan Policy Program at Brookings.

Final Thoughts 1. Candidates can and should run on a plaform that addresses Black women’s top expressed concerns: racial inequality, health care, and economic jus,ce. These issues appeal to and help define a progressive coali,on of voters and supporters. 2. Building upon the momentum of Black women’s efforts in the 2018 midterms, a 2020 plaform that includes efforts to end voter suppression, strengthen the Affordable Care Act and promote income equality can help promote Black candidates and progressive victories. 3. Poli,cal par,es should invest in candidates running for office in majority-black ci,es within states hos,ng senate races in 2020, as there is a posi,ve correla,on with the concentra,on of Black residents in a district and Black women’s electoral success. 4. Mayoral victories among the 100 most populated ci,es, and unexpected wins in congressional districts in which blacks are not the majority in 2018, show that Black women are viable in different districts with different demographics. Recent and past successes suggest Black women are crea,ng more and different routes to elected office. 5. Black female candidates who can advance issues around racial inequality, health care, and economic jus,ce will strongly influence the outcome of 2020 races, as occurred in 2018. 13 Source: Brookings InsGtute

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY LakeResearch.com 202.776.9066 Celinda Lake clake@lakeresearch.com