Funding the Next Generation May 9, 2016 Celinda Lake clake@lakeresearch.com Follow on Twitter & Facebook: Twitter: @CelindaLake Facebook: www.facebook.com/celinda.lake 1
Summary of Key Points Heading into 2016 • Family First, strong families, and strong communities are all top messaging frames for 2016. • Having a moral responsibility to your children and future generations is the strongest call to action. • Demographic changes, particularly the rise of unmarried women, promotes a family agenda. • The family and work agenda is very popular with voters, with Education being a core part of the family issues agenda. 2
Summary of Key Points Funding at the Local Level is Key • Politics is becoming increasingly local. Local levels have an increasingly large amount of power over social services. • Local funding for kids isn’t just for activities during the school day. Early childhood, after school support, health and prevention support are all areas where increased funding is needed for all children. • No matter where you are, children’s issues will always resonate. • You can raise revenue for children and youth much more easily than for other social sectors. 3
Overview of 2016 Election 4
How the voters view major 2016 issues Trump voters stand out for their pessimism about the direction of the country and their pronounced economic anxiety. Supporters of Trump, Clinton, and Sanders share the belief that the nation’s economic system favors the rich. Source: Pew Research Center poll conducted March 17-27
A majo jority of Americans belie lieve that the country ry is is on the wrong track. 6 Source: Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group; N=1,000 Registered voters; April 17-20, 2016
A majo jority of voters are worrie ied that the U.S .S. . will ill suffer another economic ic downturn that will ill negatively affect their ir famil ilies. 31 Very worried 32 41 Somewhat worried 41 20 Not too worried 21 7 Not at all worried 6 1 Unsure/refused 1 4/20/2016 5/7/2015 7 Source: Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group; N=1,000 Registered voters; April 17-20, 2016
A majo jority of voters belie lieve the next xt generation will ill be worse off economically than the current ge generation. 12/11/2014 5/7/2015 4/20/2016 71 69 65 27 25 22 8 8 6 Yes Unsure No 8 Source: Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group; N=1,000 Registered voters; April 17-20, 2016
Over erall, l, Ameri ericans nam name the the ec economy and and na nati tional se securit ity as as the the “top priorities“ facing our next President, but healthcare and foreign threats are also top op of of mind nd. Most Important Issue for President to Focus On 23 The economy 19 Dysfunction in government* 14 12 Foreign threats 11 14 Jobs 10 10 Healthcare 5/7/2015 8 4 Social Security 6 4/20/2016 8 Illegal immigration 5 8 The defecit 5 3 Taxes 3 *Not a category in a previous survey What do you think is the most important issue that the next president should be focused on? Would you say it is… 9 Source: Lake Research Partners and The Tarrance Group; N=1,000 Registered voters; April 17-20, 2016
Cinton Trump 46 40 Total vs. 41 44 Men 51 35 Women 54 28 18-34 Hillary Clinton is the preferred 35-49 47 39 candidate of women, younger 45 43 50-64 voters, college educated voters 37 50 65+ and non-white voters in a general election matchup. 9 80 Trump wins older voters over Republican 88 5 the age of 65 and white voters. Democrat While he also wins with men, Independent 39 40 Clinton performs much better 41 43 among men than Trump does Non-College among women. Independents 56 32 College are split between the two candidates. 39 46 White 68 20 Non-white Source: Quinnipiac University poll of 1,451 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land 13 lines and cell phones. Includes 652 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 635 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.
Sanders Trump vs. 52 38 Total 45 44 Men 59 35 Women Republicans and voters over 69 24 18-34 the age of 65 are the only 35-49 53 37 major categories of voters in 46 42 50-64 which Trump out performs 41 49 65+ Sanders. 13 77 Republican These numbers not only show 91 6 Democrat Democrats have a strong edge Independent 52 36 over Republicans with a broad swath of voters, but also 49 41 Non-College challenges the view that 58 32 College Sanders is “unelectable.” 44 44 White 76 19 Non-white Source: Quinnipiac University poll of 1,451 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land 14 lines and cell phones. Includes 652 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 635 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.
The Rising American Electorate Changes in America’s demographics had a dramatic influence in 2012 and 2014 and hold greater implications for the 2016 election. The Rising American Electorate needs to be invited to participate more fully in civic processes through registration and voter education programs. 12
Millennials and unmarried women have far and away the largest shares. Vote Eligible Population Unmarried Women 18-32 Year Olds 25.8% 26.0% Non-RAE RAE 43.3% 56.7% African Americans Latinos Asian Americans 11.4% 4.3% 12.7% Other people of color make up 3.0% of the VEP. Source: CPS November 2014 13 * Percentages denote share of that group within the Vote Eligible Population (VEP) i.e. unmarried women are 25.8% of the VEP
Here in California, nearly 70% of the Vote Eligible Population fall within the RAE. Vote Eligible Population Unmarried Women 18-32 Year Olds 26.8% 29.0% Non-RAE RAE 30.2% 69.8% African Americans Latinos Asian Americans 7.3% 28% 14.3% Other people of color make up 18.8% of California’s VEP. Source: CPS November 2014 * Percentages denote share of that group within the Vote Eligible Population (VEP) i.e. 14 unmarried women are 26.8% of the VEP
Realities of American Families • Across regions and family types, child care costs account for the greatest variability in family budgets. • Monthly child care costs for a two-parent, one-child household range from $344 in rural South Carolina to $1,472 in Washington, D.C. In the latter, monthly child care costs for a two-parent, three-child household are $2,784 — nearly 90 percent higher than for a two-parent, one-child household. • Among two-parent, two-child families, child care costs exceed rent in 500 out of 618 family budget areas (81 percent). • Subsidies for child care are available only for low income families and are scare and sporadic even for them. Only about 30 percent of low income families using center-based child care receive these subsidies. Middle income families receiving subsidies is negligible – only 3 percent for an in- home care center. 15 Sources: Elise Gould, Tanyell Cooke, and Will Kimball. What Families Need to Get By: EPI’s 2015 Family Budget Calculator. August 26, 2015. https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/labor/news/2012/08/16/11978/fact-sheet-child-care/
Among parents with kids under 18 at home, a majority have found finding quality and affordable childcare to be difficult. Ability to Find Quality and Affordable Childcare 55 29 14 34 Working Mothers 49 11 10 32 Working Fathers 56 26 8 27 Non-working Parents 54 26 8 32 Income <$50k 53 50 16 14 35 Income $50k + 53 29 12 33 Non-college 32 53 17 9 32 College 51 31 12 31 White 21 11 57 34 8 35 Non-white Difficult Easy Difficult Easy Q: (Among parents with kids under 18 at home) In your personal experience, has finding quality and affordable childcare been very ease, somewhat easy, somewhat difficult or very difficult? 16 This Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone June 24-July 5, 2015 among a random national sample of 1,636 adults, including users of both conventional and cellular phones. The results from the full survey have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points. The error margin is 6.0 points among the sample of 391 parents with children under 18.
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