Part III: LGBTQ Women as a Force for Progressive Change September 2020 Celinda Lake 1
Research Parts I & II Recap • In July, Project LPAC and Lake Research Partners presented Part I of the research in a webinar focused on LGBTQ women as an electorate, exploring three distinct groups: 1. Non-registered voters (19% of LGBTQ women) 2. Registered, committed Biden voters (55% of LGBTQ women) 3. Registered, non-committed voters (14% of LGBTQ women) • In August, a second webinar was held presenting Part II, which focused on differences between LGBTQ women and straight women. • LGBTQ women are more enthusiastic, Democratically oriented, and on the side of progressive issues than straight women. • In many issue areas, LGBTQ women and straight women of color have views that are more likely to align than the views of LGBTQ women and straight white women. 2
Methodology – Survey • Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey that was conducted online from June 6 – 14, 2020. The survey reached a total of 1,653 survey respondents, including 1,025 LGBTQ women, 400 straight women, and 228 transgender women and non-binary adults. • The survey results were weighted to 800 LGBTQ women, with oversamples of 100 Black LGBTQ women, 100 Latina LGBTQ women, 200 transgender women and nonbinary adults, 200 straight women, 100 Black straight women, and 100 Latina straight women. • The LGBTQ women base sample was weighted by age, educational attainment, and race. The Black LGBTQ women sample was weighted by age and party identification. The Latina LGBTQ oversample was weighted by age and party identification. White LGBTQ women were weighted by party identification. The Black and Latina LGBTQ women oversamples were weighted down into the base LGBTQ women sample to reflect their actual proportion of LGBTQ women nationwide. • The transgender and nonbinary oversample was weighted slightly by gender, educational attainment, and race. The nonbinary adults oversample was weighted by age and race. • The straight women oversample was weighted by age, region, educational attainment, race, and party identification. The Latina straight women oversample was weighted by region, educational attainment, and party identification. The Black straight women oversample was weighted by age, educational attainment, and party identification. The Black and Latina straight women oversamples were weighted down into the straight women sample to reflect their actual proportion of straight women nationwide. • The margin of error for the base LGBTQ women sample is +/- 3.5%. The margin of error for the straight women oversample and the transgender women and nonbinary adults oversample is +/- 6.9%. 3
Part III: Key Findings 4
Summary – LGBTQ Women as a Progressive Force • LGBTQ women are a strongly progressive cohort, reliably Democratic, and engaged with the issues the country faces today. • They want to see the government take action to address the issues the country faces due to coronavirus, want to ensure everyone has access to healthcare, and want leaders to address racism and systematic injustice. • They are tuned into LGBTQ issues, they think LGBTQ representation at all levels is important, and they care about candidate’s voting records on LGBTQ issues. • LGBTQ women play a critical role in civic participation, and with their level of engagement on progressive issues, make excellent advocates, volunteers, donors, activists, and voters. • LGBTQ women are not a monolith, they have different issue priorities and these often differ by age and race. 5
The 2020 Election 6
Looking at only registered, likely voters, LGBTQ women are 20-points more likely than straight women to support Biden and 23-points less likely to support Trump. Trans women and nonbinary adults are similarly supportive. If the 2020 election for President were held today, would you vote for: [ROTATE] Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, or are you undecided, voting for someone else, or not going to vote? LGBTQ Women Straight Women Transgender Women & Nonbinary Adults Registered, Likely Voters Registered, Likely Voters Registered, Likely Voters 69 73 17 53 18 37 10 54 16 46 14 38 34 12 11 8 7 6 5 5 5 Biden Trump Undecided Someone Else Biden Trump Undecided Someone Else Biden Trump Undecided Someone Else Undecided – lean Biden Undecided – lean Trump 7 Biden – Not so Strongly Trump – Not so Strongly Biden – Strongly Trump – Strongly
Vote motivation correlates with registration. Eight-in-ten LGBTQ women overall say they are motivated to vote. Nearly all registered LGBTQ women who are Biden voters say they are motivated. Registered, non-committed LGBTQ women voters are less motivated to vote. Some people feel very motivated to vote in this November election while others don't feel motivated at all, and many are in between. How about you--how motivated are you to vote in November? LGBTQ Women Non-committed Registered LGBTQ Women Registered LGBTQ Women Biden Voters Voters 96 80 60 38 84 62 17 35 8 3 8 1 Motivated Not Motivated Motivated Not Motivated Motivated Not Motivated 8 Somewhat Motivated Not too Motivated Split Sampled Question Very Motivated Not at all Motivated
Across demographic groups, white LGBTQ women are the most motivated to vote, though other groups are not far behind. Intense motivation among straight Black women is the lowest, though this survey fielded before Kamala Harris joined the ticket. Some people feel very motivated to vote in this November election while others don't feel motivated at all, and many are in between. How about you--how motivated are you to vote in November? LGBTQ Women Straight Women White Black Latinx White* Black* Latinx* 84 80 79 74 73 70 26 67 22 19 54 53 53 53 17 15 14 37 10 9 9 4 2 Motivated Not Motivated Motivated Not Motivated Motivated Not Motivated Motivated Not Motivated Motivated Not Motivated Motivated Not Motivated 9 Somewhat Motivated Not too Motivated Split Sampled Question Very Motivated Not at all Motivated *N size <75 cases
LGBTQ women, transgender women, and nonbinary adults are more interested than straight women in taking political action. Nearly two-thirds of LGBTQ women say they are interested, and almost four-in-ten say they are very interested. How interested are you in taking political action, such as voting, calling representatives, signing a petition, or learning more about representatives and candidates in your city? LGBTQ Women Straight Women Transgender Women & Nonbinary Adults Most likely to be very Most likely to be very Most likely to be very interested: interested: interested: Biden voters: 46% Black women: 38% Biden voters: 47% College grads: 45% Registered, likely voters: Democrats: 46% Democrats: 44% 34% Registered, likely voters: 64 63 White: 39% Post-graduates*: 33% 46% Latinas: 32% 65+: 43% 46 College educated: 42% 37 27 25 37 32 26 17 12 8 Interested Not Interested Interested Not Interested Interested Not Interested 10 Somewhat Interested A little Interested Very Interested Not Interested at All *N size <75 cases
While no group thinks Trump is better on LGBTQ issues, nearly 9-in-10 LGBTQ women who are non- committed registered voters see no difference between Biden and Trump. Demographically, the LGBTQ women who are most likely to say neither candidate is better are Latinas, LGBTQ women under 50, non- college grads, Independents and Republicans, and suburban women. Which candidate, if any, do you believe is better on LGBTQ issues? LGBTQ Women Non-committed registered LGBTQ Women Registered LGBTQ Women Biden Voters voters 87 57 75 65 41 10 9 29 2 0 14 1 12 7 6 5 Biden Trump Neither Both Equally Biden Trump Neither Both Equally Biden Trump Neither Both Equally 11 Biden – Somewhat Better Trump – Somewhat Better Biden – Much Better Trump – Much Better
LGBTQ women and transgender women and nonbinary adults are more likely than straight women to say they will vote by mail in November. Straight women split between voting by mail and voting in person. How do you plan on voting in the 2020 election in November for President, Congress, and other offices? LGBTQ Women Straight Women Transgender Women & Nonbinary Adults 51 47 39 37 32 29 14 14 10 By Mail In Person Not Voting By Mail In Person Not Voting By Mail In Person Not Voting 12 I plan on voting by mail if it is an option I plan on voting in-person at a polling in my state location
Across demographic groups, white LGBTQ women are the most likely to say they will be voting by mail. White straight women split between by mail and in person. Black LGBTQ women narrowly say they are voting in person while Black straight women are even more likely to do so. Latina LGBTQ women say they will vote by mail while straight Latina women split between voting by mail and voting in person. How do you plan on voting in the 2020 election in November for President, Congress, and other offices? White LGBTQ Black LGBTQ Latina LGBTQ White Straight Black Straight Latina Straight Women Women Women Women Women Women 52 50 47 46 42 40 40 38 38 35 34 30 16 13 10 10 9 6 By Mail In Person Not By Mail In Person Not By Mail In Person Not By Mail In Person Not By Mail In Person Not By Mail In Person Not Voting Voting Voting Voting Voting Voting 13 I plan on voting by mail if it is an option I plan on voting in-person at a polling in my state location
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