Research on Global Climate Policies in NIES Kiyoshi Takahashi The 25 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 Research on Global Climate Policies in NIES Kiyoshi Takahashi The 25 th AIM workshop @ National Institute for Environmental Studies 20 November 2019

ERTDF2 ‐ 1702 Framework of “Integrated Analyses of Climate Policies for 2015 ‐ 2019 Simultaneous Realization of the Paris Agreement and the SDGs” Theme1 ： Global climate policy analyses Theme2 ・ 3 ： Japanese mitigation policy analyses Global ・ Japan ・ Mitigation Long ‐ term Mid/Long ‐ term Collaboration targets with France and Germany Internatio Mitigation models nal model Mitigation and Various for national scale comparis Tool environmental stakehold analyses on development models for ers projects global analyses IPCC / ipbes etc Global scenarios Proposition of Domestic mitigation consistent with scenarios consistent integrated Paris agreement with global scenarios scenarios and SDGs Implication of LCS Social issues Sustainable policies on other development confronted in Japan social issues 2

3 持続可能な開発目標 Sustainable Development Goals • T 貧困撲滅 健康・福祉 教育の質 飢餓ゼロ ジェンダー平等 安全な水・ﾄｲﾚ エネルギー 雇用・経済成長 産業・技術革新 不平等の解消 持続的な街 責任ある 気候変動 海の豊かさ 生産・消費 森の豊かさ 平和と公正 ﾊﾟｰﾄﾅｰｼｯﾌﾟ トレードオフ関係 ? 共便益関係 ? Trade-off ? Co-benefit ?

中国を対象とした 2 ℃ 気候政策と複数 SDGs の同時達成分析 Align climate policies with multiple SDGs in China for the 2 ° C goal Liu et al., Under review Early climate action + complementary policy • package (food subsidy and forest land rent subsidy) successfully diminished the negative side effects while maintaining the co ‐ benefits. Energy security and air pollution can have • great co ‐ benefits from climate actions Food security and land resources • experience trade ‐ offs. 4

Economic impact of climate change: S ‐ 14 ‐ 5 Research Framework 2015 ‐ 2019 Emission scenario Socioeconomic scenario RCP SSP Climate change SSP1: Suntainability RCP8.5 SSP2: Middle of the Road RCP6.0 SSP3: Reginal Rivalry RCP4.5 SSP4: Inequality RCP2.6 SSP5: Fossil ‐ fueled Development 2 ℃ GHG emissions constraint GHG concentration Socioeconomic assumptions Gridded population and so on Climate model Crop yield IAM Crop model （ AIM/CGE ） Water Climate resource Water model GDP ・・・ ・・・ Number of Death Health model Climate impact for Total each sector climate loss 5

Economic impact of climate change: S ‐ 14 ‐ 5 Results: total impacts global/regional 2015 ‐ 2019 Takakura et al. (2019) Nature Climate Change There is a great divergence in the projected economic impact ranging from 0.4% to 8.6% of GWP at the end of the century depending on scenarios.

Global analyses of decarbonization and sustainable development Proposed 2021 ‐ 2025 Detailed description of natural system (3) Long ‐ term analyses of earth ‐ human system sustainability ‐ Interaction between the systems ・ ESM ‐ IAM linked model ‐ Tipping; Planetary boundaries ・ Interaction among climate, carbon cycle and human activity ・ Further understanding of tipping elements 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 … (2) Long ‐ term mitigation and SD ・ Extended CGE model for SD indicators analyses ・ GHG pathways towards the achievement of PA ‐ Long ‐ term socio ‐ economic scenario ・ Analyses of knock ‐ on effects of mitigation on SD ‐ Emission pathways toward the long ‐ ・ Climate risks under the GHG pathways and their implication to equality term climate target ‐ Assumed availability of BECCS etc. (1) Near ‐ /Mid ‐ term mitigation and SD ‐ Spatial socio ‐ economic scenarios ・ Mitigation analyses based on the end ‐ use models ‐ Model modules of CGE/IAM ・ GHG pathways for 2030 ‐ 2050 towards the 2050 target ・ Effects of climate policy on SD issues such as air pollution and natural resource management ・ Evaluation of NDCs achievements under the PA ‐ Political/technical constraints for the near ‐ term period Detailed description ‐ International process of stocktaking of human system

Global analyses of decarbonization and sustainable development Proposed 2021 ‐ 2025 Detailed description of natural system (3) Long ‐ term analyses of earth ‐ human system sustainability ‐ Interaction between the systems ・ ESM ‐ IAM linked model ‐ Tipping; Planetary boundaries ・ Interaction among climate, carbon cycle and human activity ・ Further understanding of tipping elements 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 … (2) Long ‐ term mitigation and SD ・ Extended CGE model for SD indicators analyses ・ GHG pathways towards the achievement of PA ‐ Long ‐ term socio ‐ economic scenario ・ Analyses of knock ‐ on effects of mitigation on SD ‐ Emission pathways toward the long ‐ ・ Climate risks under the GHG pathways and their implication to equality term climate target ‐ Assumed availability of BECCS etc. (1) Near ‐ /Mid ‐ term mitigation and SD ‐ Spatial socio ‐ economic scenarios ・ Mitigation analyses based on the end ‐ use models ‐ Model modules of CGE/IAM ・ GHG pathways for 2030 ‐ 2050 towards the 2050 target ・ Effects of climate policy on SD issues such as air pollution and natural resource management ・ Evaluation of NDCs achievements under the PA ‐ Political/technical constraints for the near ‐ term period Detailed description ‐ International process of stocktaking of human system

Global analyses of net ‐ zero emission mitigation and Proposed its implications for sustainable development 2020 ‐ 2022 Integrated scenarios for (1) Emission pathways toward long ‐ term climate global sustainability target and subsequent climate risks Zero emission Multiple indicators Results of climate Mitigation cost Latest climate science measuring states of SD Water impact analyses Hunger stress GHG GHG Model for analyzing emission global emission path Reduced impact models Year Loss of （ Impact emulator ） Poverty ACC2 & CLIM4OPT biodiversity Mitigation Climate risks cost Negative emission Climate risks Mitigation cost Global climate risks – Water sustainability IAM Hunger stress AIM/CGE GHG Poverty Social system Year transformation Loss of Poverty biodiversity Hunger Global land ‐ use model Climate risks Land management AIM/PLUM related constraints Zero emission Water stress + intervention Mitigation cost Water Hunger stress Biodiversity model Water resource model Biodiversity GHG AIM/BIO H08 Year Loss of Crop yield mode Terrestrial ecosystem Poverty biodiversity CROVER model VISIT Climate risks (2) Mitigation strategies considering global sustaimability

Global analyses of decarbonization and sustainable development Proposed 2021 ‐ 2025 Detailed description of natural system (3) Long ‐ term analyses of earth ‐ human system sustainability ‐ Interaction between the systems ・ ESM ‐ IAM linked model ‐ Tipping; Planetary boundaries ・ Interaction among climate, carbon cycle and human activity ・ Further understanding of tipping elements 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 … (2) Long ‐ term mitigation and SD ・ Extended CGE model for SD indicators analyses ・ GHG pathways towards the achievement of PA ‐ Long ‐ term socio ‐ economic scenario ・ Analyses of knock ‐ on effects of mitigation on SD ‐ Emission pathways toward the long ‐ ・ Climate risks under the GHG pathways and their implication to equality term climate target ‐ Assumed availability of BECCS etc. (1) Near ‐ /Mid ‐ term mitigation and SD ‐ Spatial socio ‐ economic scenarios ・ Mitigation analyses based on the end ‐ use models ‐ Model modules of CGE/IAM ・ GHG pathways for 2030 ‐ 2050 towards the 2050 target ・ Effects of climate policy on SD issues such as air pollution and natural resource management ・ Evaluation of NDCs achievements under the PA ‐ Political/technical constraints for the near ‐ term period Detailed description ‐ International process of stocktaking of human system

Modelling of interaction in earth ‐ human systems Ongoing 2016 ‐ 2020 MIROC ‐ INTEG (integrated terrestrial model), Yokohata et al. 2019 (Geosci Model Dev, in review) MIROC VISIT Vegetation Climate Ecosystem climate Crop Climate GHG PRYSIBI2 Irrigation/dam Yield emission Cropland Cropland Landuse area area TeLMO NEP Climate Irrigation land Demands Water use Economics Water resources Water demand H08 AIM Cropland area [ratio] • State ‐ of ‐ the ‐ art GCM is coupled to human process models (water, crop, land use) SSP3 RCP85 • Climate change ‐ > impacts on water, food, SSP2 RCP26 energy ‐ > land use change ‐ > climate change • Large future demands (SSP3) ‐ > large impacts on water resources and land use • Coupling of ESM – IAM to investigate the interactions of earth ‐ human systems (contributing to AIMES project in Future Earth)