Reality Check: Using Market Analysis to Illuminate Nonresidential Lighting Opportunities Jessica Aiona, Flux Resources for Bonneville Power Administration Laura Tabor, Navigant Kate Bushman, Cadeo 1
market perspective 2
How much has the market How quickly has this already transformed? change happened? Non- residential lighting Where can programs still How much potential remains? be effective? 3
total market model All Lamps and Fixtures in Stock Turnover Six Year Savings Horizon Major Non-Residential Approach With Forecast Applications 4
connecting numerous data sources Sales data from 34 distributors Market intelligence from interviews and literature reviews Regional stock data, national tech specs 5
decreasing consumption & increasing growth 2,500 70,000 Annual Lighting Consumption, aMW Fixtures Installed, Thousands 60,000 2,000 50,000 1,500 40,000 30,000 1,000 20,000 500 10,000 0 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Total Fixture Stock Annual Lighting Consumption 6
better linear fluorescents Ambient Linear Installed Fixture Mix 100% 90% 80% 70% LED Luminaire 60% TLED 50% 40% T5 30% T8 20% 10% T12 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 7
HID in decline High/Low Bay Installed Fixture Mix 100% 90% 80% LED 70% 60% T5 50% T8 40% 30% T12 20% HID 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 8
more LED Building Exterior Installed Fixture Mix 100% LED 90% 80% T8 70% CFL 60% 50% T12 40% Incandescent and 30% Halogen 20% HID 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 9
more LED General Purpose Installed Fixture Mix 100% 90% 80% LED 70% 60% CFL 50% 40% Halogen 30% Incandescent 20% 10% 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 10
where is the LED action? • Outdoor lighting • Screw-in applications • Commercial sector • Ambient Linear • High and Low Bay • Industrial sector 11
target aesthetic turnover Highlight decorative and vintage LED options for customer-facing spaces with high lighting turnover
be there at decision time Build relationships with industrial customers to spur conversion when the right moment arrives
think long term Find ways to support market actors switching to lighting design strategy business models
how can you help? additional integrating more frequent research on efficiency trends stock lifetime and into load assessments turnover forecasting characteristics update programs total market to respond to modeling in other market changes regions 15
contact Jessica Aiona jlaiona@bpa.gov Laura Tabor laura.tabor@navigant.com Kate Bushman kbushman@cadeogroup.com 16
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