Modeling on service demands: Industry and Transport Industry and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Modeling on service demands: Industry and Transport Industry and Transport Osamu Akashi (NIES) The 15th AIM International Workshop 20 ‐ 22, February 2010 @NIES Tsukuba Japan @NIES, Tsukuba, Japan

Objective Macroeconomic model Macroeconomic model Population Socio-economic macro frame model GDP Sector-wise value added Service demand model Waste Steel production Cement Transportation energy service Agricultural Fluorocarbon generation production model and trade model demand model demand model trade model emission model model Value added Energy service Energy service Crude steel Cement Transportation Agricultural Waste Emission of of secondary demand demand production production volume production generation fluorocarbon industry (residential) (commercial) Technology bottom-up model Waste Iron and steel Other industries Transportation Residential Commercial Agriculture Fluorocarbon Cement sector management sector sector sector sector sector sector emission sector sector Electricity demand Technology database Initial cost Efficiency Technology Maximum Energy database gy Primary energy y gy lifetime lifetime bottom-up model b tt d l diffusion rate production （ power generation sector ） Energy price Emission factor Technology bottom-up model （ energy mining sector ） Exogenous Exogenous Endogenous Endogenous variable variable GHG reduction Model Database Cost Technology bottom-up model

Methodology Macroeconomic model ・ Socio ‐ economic macro frame model Exogenous scenario • GDP ・ population • Value-added by sector Service demand models ・ Steel production and trade model ・ Cement production model ・ Transportation demand model • Steel production • Cement production • Cement production • Transportation volume To technology bottom up model To technology bottom-up model Don't quote 3

S Socio ‐ economic macro frame model i i f d l

Socio ‐ economic macro frame model • To estimate macroeconomic variables in each region • Supply ‐ side macro economic model, which estimates GDP from fixed capital stock and labor force • Sector ‐ wise value added are estimated based on the GDP • Econometric approach • Historical data (1971 • Historical data (1971 – 2005) are used for calibration 2005) are used for calibration • Inputs: Population • Outputs: GDP, final consumption, gross capital formation, sector ‐ wise value added in US$ at constant 2000 price Don't quote 5

Model structure Fixed Capital Stock Gross capital Population K i t formation formation ages 15 64 ages 15-64 i,t I i,t POP1564 i,t Time trend Time trend Gross domestic Labor force TIME t product L i,t GDP i,t Share of agriculture, Exogenous Exogenous I d Industry and service t d i variable sector RVA i,s,t Endogenous variable variable Estimation equation Value added of Final agriculture, industry g , y i: region i: region consumption and service sector t: year Definitional CP i,t VA i,s,t s: sector equation Don't quote 6

Estimated GDP 100 10 World Japan MEX MEX 80 8 100 This study 100 This study 000US$ at M 000US$ at M SRES ‐ A1 (IPCC,2000) 60 6 90 SRES ‐ A2 (IPCC,2000) 80 40 40 4 4 trillion 20 trillion 20 SRES ‐ B1 (IPCC,2000) ( ) 70 SRES ‐ B2 (IPCC,2000) 20 2 60 GEO4 ‐ MK (UNEP,2007) 0 0 0 0 50 GEO4 ‐ PL (UNEP,2007) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 40 GEO4 ‐ SC (UNEP,2007) 6 16 30 GEO4 ‐ ST(UNEP 2007) GEO4 ST (UNEP,2007) 14 14 China China I di India X 0US$ at MEX X 0US$ at MEX 5 20 12 WEO07 (IEA,2007) 4 10 10 IEO08 (EIA,2008) 3 3 8 8 trillion 2000 trillion 2000 GEP07 (WB,2007) 0 6 2 2000 2020 GS (Wilson,2003) 4 1 PWC (Hawksworth,2006) 2 2 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 Don't quote 7

St Steel production and trade model l d ti d t d d l

Steel production and trade model • To estimate steel production in each region • Partial equilibrium model, which considers demand and supply balance at domestic and international steel market • Econometric approach pp • Historical data (1971 – 2005) are used for calibration • Inputs: Population GDP Industrial value added • Inputs: Population, GDP, Industrial value added • Outputs: Production, Consumption, Export, Import Don't quote 9

Model structure International market ∑ ∑ = Export Import i i i i Export i InternationalPrice Import i Domestic market at region i = − + Consumption Production Export Import i i i i ( ) = Consumption f Population GDP i consumption i i , ( ) = Production f DomesticPrice InternationalPrice i Production i , ( ( ) ) = Export E f f Production DomesticPrice InternationalPrice P d i D i P i I i lP i i export i i , , ( ) = Imp ort f Consumption DomesticPrice InternationalPrice i import i , i , Don't quote 10

Estimated steel production 2500 160 World Japan 140 2000 2000 120 100 1500 2500This study Mton Mton 80 1000 1000 2000Oda (Oda,2007) Od (Od 2007) 2000 60 40 SAGE (DOE,2003) 500 1500 20 1000Price A1 (Price,2006) Price ‐ A1 (Price,2006) 0 0 Price ‐ B2 (Price,2006) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 500 700 350 Hidalgo (Hidalgo,2003) China China I di India 0 600 300 DeBeer(de Beer,2003) 2000 2010 2020 2030 500 250 400 200 on on Mto Mto 300 150 200 100 100 100 50 50 0 0 Don't quote 11 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030

C Cement production model t d ti d l

Cement production model • To estimate cement production in each region • Statistical model • Statistical model • Historical data (1971 – 2005) are used for calibration • Inputs: Population, GDP I t P l ti GDP • Outputs: Production GDP per capita GDP_P Exogenous variable Production per Endogenous capita variable PRD_P Estimation Estimation Population equation POP Definitional Production equation equation PRD Don't quote 13

Estimated cement production 7000 140 World Japan 6000 120 5000 100 7000 This study 4000 Mton 80 Mton 6000 SAGE (DOE,2003) 3000 3000 60 60 5000 Price ‐ A1 (Price,2003) 2000 40 4000 Price ‐ B2 (Price,2003) 1000 20 3000 3000 SusCem ‐ A1 SusCem A1 0 0 0 2000 SusCem ‐ A2 (Humphreys,2003) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 3000 600 1000 SusCem ‐ B1 (Humphreys,2003) China China I di India 0 2500 500 SusCem ‐ B2 (Humphreys,2003) 2000 2020 Szabo (Szabo,2003) 2000 400 ton ton 1500 1500 300 300 Mt Mt 1000 200 500 100 0 0 Don't quote 14 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030

T Transportation demand model t ti d d d l

Transportation demand model • To estimate both passenger and freight transportation volume transportation volume • Statistical model • Inputs: Population, GDP • Outputs: p Passenger transportation volume by mode ( Car, Bus, Rail, Domestic air, International air) in passenger ‐ km, , , ) p g , Freight transportation volume by mode ( truck, rail, ship) in ton ‐ km p) • Historical data (1971 – 2005) are used for calibration Don't quote 16

Passenger transportation model GDP per capita GDPP i,t Total transportation volume per capita PKTOTP PKTOTP i,t Population POP i,t Total transportation volume PKTOT i,t Modal share SH m,i,t Transportation volume of each mode PK PK m,i,t i: region Estimation Exogenous Endogenous Definitional t: year t: year equation ti variable i bl variable i bl equation ti m: mode Don't quote 17

Freight transportation model Land transportation Ship transportation GDP per capita GDP GDPP GDPP i,t GDP GDP i,t Total land trans. volume per capita TKTOTP i,t Population POP i,t POP Total land trans. volume TKTOT i,t i,t Modal share SH m,i,t Trans. volume Trans. volume of each mode f h d of each mode f h d TK m,i,t TK m,i,t i: region i: region E ti Estimation ti E Exogenous Endogenous E d Definitional D fi iti l t: year equation variable variable equation m: mode Don't quote 18

Passenger transportation by car 1.8 1.4 1.6 World Japan 1.2 =1) =1) 1.4 . ndex( 2005= ndex( 2005= 1.0 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.6 I I 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 40 0.2 This study 0.0 0 0 20 20 0 0 0.0 IEA (Fulton,2004) 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 0 MLIT (MILT,2008) 4.5 2000 2010 2020 2030 6.0 4.0 4.0 China Chi India 5.0 ex( 2005=1) x( 2005=1) 3.5 3.0 4.0 2.5 3 0 3.0 Inde Inde 2.0 1.5 2.0 1.0 1.0 0 5 0.5 0.0 0.0 2000 2010 2020 2030 Don't quote 19 2000 2010 2020 2030

Freight transportation by truck 2.5 1.4 World Japan 1.2 =1) =1) 2.0 ndex (2005= ndex (2005= 1.0 1.5 0.8 0.6 1 0 1.0 In In 0.4 0.5 40 0.2 This study 20 20 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 IEA (Fulton,2004) 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 MLIT (MILT,2008) 4.5 3.5 2000 2010 2020 2030 China C a India India 4.0 .0 3.0 3 0 ex (2005=1) ex (2005=1) 3.5 2.5 3.0 2.0 2.5 Inde Inde 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.5 0 5 0.5 0.0 0.0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2000 2010 2020 2030 Don't quote 20