Clima te Se c urity Se c urity re fe rs to the po litic a l, institutio na l a nd so c ia l Ma ximizing the Clima te e nviro nme nt whe re individua ls, so c ie tie s a nd c o untrie s ha ve fre e do m to de c ide the ir c urre nt a nd future we llb e ing . Se c urity Be ne fits o f E xte rna l Clima te se c urity re fe rs to the thre a ts po se d b y the c lima te E me rg e nc y Assista nc e c ha ng e to the se c urity o f individua l huma n b e ing s, so c ie tie s a nd c o untrie s. S.V.R.K . PRABHAK AR, K . T AMURA, AND M. I K E DA I NST I T UT E F OR GL OBAL E NVI RONME NT AL ST RAT E GI E S, HAYAMA, JAPAN Clima te se c urity is a n impo rta nt issue fo r b o th the de ve lo pe d a nd de ve lo ping c o untrie s. Clima te Se c urity is Bo th a De c isio n F ra me wo rk Clima te Se c urity is Pe rva sive : Ja pa n a nd a n Outc o me Millio n m 3 / ye a r Ja pa n’ s c lima te se c urity c o nc e rns o rig ina te b o th fro m within a nd a c ro ss its b o rde rs. F ood a nd wa te r: Ja pa n impo rts mo re fre shwa te r tha n the wa te r withdra wn within its b o rde rs. Ja pa n sa ve s ne a rly 20 km 3 o f wa te r b y impo rting fo o d. Clima te c ha ng e impa c ts o n c o untrie s fro m whe re Ja pa n impo rts fo o d me a ns fo o d a nd wa te r inse c urity fo r Ja pa n. I nuzuka e t a l., 2008 Pra b ha ka r, 2019
Ja pa n’ s F DI s ha ve b e e n inc re a sing in the ASE AN I mpa c t o f Ba ng ko k flo o ds (2011) o n Ja pa n Re g io n a nd will inc re a se in the future A to ta l e stima te d lo ss o f 47 b illio n USD 90% o f the lo sse s we re a c c rue d to Ja pa ne se c o mpa nie s a nd re la te d inve stme nts. Mo re tha n 550 Ja pa ne se a ffilia te firms we re a ffe c te d b y the se flo o ds, pro duc tio n fa c ilitie s suc h a s b uilding s a nd ma c hine ry we re se ve re ly RO 2018) a ffe c te d. As the se firms pro vide supplie s to o the r fa c to rie s in Ma la ysia , Vie tna m T a nd I ndo ne sia a nd o the r pa rts o f the wo rld, the pro duc tio n o f the se (JE fa c to rie s we re a lso a ffe c te d due to the sho c k to the supply c ha ins. Ja pa n’ s F DI o utflo ws to Asia n c o untrie s ha ve b e e n T he lo ss b o rne b y the Ja pa ne se insura nc e c o mpa nie s sto o d a t a b o ut inc re a sing in the pa st de c a de . F DI ha ve inc re a se d 1.8 b illio n USD. e spe c ia lly in T ha ila nd a fte r a b rie f de c line a fte rma th 2011 flo o ds T he impa c t o n the industria l pro duc tio n o f the wo rld wa s e stima te d to T he re a re pro je c tio ns fo r mo re Ja pa ne se c o mpa nie s b e 2.5% (Ha ra g uc hi & L a ll, 2015). to inc re a se inve stme nts in ASE AN a nd China (JE T RO So urc e : MOF , 2018 2018) Ja pa n is a n Importa nt E me rg e nc y Re lie f Provide r Ja pa n’ s Disa ste r Re lie f T e a m & Re lie f Ma te ria l De plo yme nt 600 50 PNG, Ba ng la de sh, 45 Do minic a , Nic a ra g ua , 499 I O T suna mi 500 Ho ndura s, Co lumb ia 40 35 400 No o f time s No o f time s 30 300 25 20 200 15 10 100 57 46 5 19 17 1 0 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Re sc ue te a m Me dic a l te a m E xpe rt te a m SDF Dise a se Pro visio n o f re spo nse supplie s te a m Ye a r Co mpo ne nt De plo ye d Ja pa n's Disa ste r Re spo nse T e a m De plo yme nts during 1987-2016 JI CA, 2016 JI CA, 2016
Ja pa n’ s E xte rna l E me rg e nc y Re lie f Burde n Ho w Clima te Cha ng e T hre a te ns Na tio na l Ca n Gro w in the F uture Se c urity? Mo re tha n Ove ra ll lo sse s due to e xtra tro pic a l 70% o f c yc lo ne s will inc re a se , with c o untrie s’ po ssib le de c re a se s o r no c ha ng e milita rie s in so me a re a s (me dium ha ve c o nfide nc e ) huma nita ria L ike ly inc re a se in a ve ra g e tro pic a l n a ssista nc e c yc lo ne ma ximum wind spe e d a nd re lie f a s a c ritic a l F uture flo o d lo sse s in ma ny missio n. lo c a tio ns will inc re a se (hig h a g re e me nt) JI CA, 2017 I PCC SRE X 2012. I PCC 2015 I nstitutio na l Co sts o f E xte rna l E me rg e nc y I mpo rta nt Co nside ra tio ns fo r Ja pa n to Assista nc e E nsure Clima te Se c urity Outc o me s o f E E A I n a dditio n to the dire c t c o sts o f de plo ying the I nc re a se d e ffic ie nc y o f de plo yme nt o f e me rg e nc y a ssista nc e re lie f a ssista nc e , se ve ra l a rms o f the Quic k a ssista nc e Go ve rnme nt o f Ja pa n a re invo lve d fro m the time the e xte rna l e me rg e nc y a ssista nc e Appro pria te a ssista nc e re q ue st is re c e ive d to the time the a ssista nc e is Stra te g ic a ssista nc e de plo ye d. I nc re a se d o ve ra ll b e ne fits fro m e xte rna l e me rg e nc y a ssista nc e T he se c o sts a re o fte n no t a c c o unte d into the Prio ritize a ssista nc e to c o untrie s a nd lo c a tio ns whe re Ja pa n’ s stra te g ic c o st o f E E A de plo yme nt whic h c o uld b e inte re sts re st (c o untrie s with sig nific a nt Ja pa n’ s F DI ? ) = No t Huma nita ria n! sig nific a nt. MOF Co nne c t sho rt-te rm E E A e ng a g e me nts with lo ng -te rm risk re duc tio n A 2018 T he se c o sts a re a c c rue d b o th o n the re c ipie nt inve stme nts in a ffe c te d c o untrie s? Curre ntly the re is no e vide nc e side a nd o n the do no r side .
I de ntifying the Critic a l T hre sho ld o f Assista nc e Critic a l T hre sho lds Co nc e pt fo r Vulne ra b le Co untrie s Co untry A Co untry B Co untry C Wha t it is? Critic a l thre sho lds re fe rs to the lo we st le ve l o f ha za rd (e ithe r Co untry a ssista nc e re q uire me nt=f(da ma g e thre sho ld, c urre nt ye a r GDP, disa ste r pre pa re dne ss, …) b y inte nsity/ dura tio n/ ma g nitude ), o r le ve l o f lo c a l c a pa c itie s o r a So me c o untrie s will ha ve a re lia b le da ma g e thre sho ld- c o mb ina tio n o f b o th tha t re sult in a c a ll fo r e xte rna l a ssista nc e b y a a ssista nc e re la tio nships (e .g . Co untry A a nd B), whe re the Co untry D Co untry E Co untry F c o untry. c o nc e pt o f c ritic a l thre sho lds fo r Assista nc e wo rk we ll. Co untrie s whe re suc h func tio n is no t c le a r (e .g . Co untry E Wha t it c a n he lp a c hie ve ? a nd H), due to va rie d c a pa c itie s within the c o untry, c ritic a l thre sho ld sho uld b e furthe r spe c ia lize d to ta ke into He lp b e tte r unde rsta nd the na ture o f impe nding a ssista nc e ne e ds c o untry c irc umsta nc e s. He lp de live r a ppro pria te a ssista nc e (a mo unt, kind, dura tio n e tc .) Co untry G Co untry H Co untry I T he re se a rc h ne e d to ide ntify suc h c irc umsta nc e s fo r re lia b le e stima tio n o f a ssista nc e thre sho lds fo r the se Be tte r unde rsta nd the a ssista nc e pre pa re dne ss ne e de d c o untrie s tha t a lso wo rks fo r a ll o the r c o untrie s. One a ppro a c h is to ha ve a hig h re so lutio n o f the thre sho ld i.e . De sig n a ssista nc e ke e ping in vie w the imme dia te a nd lo ng -te rm to ha ve sub -re g io na l thre sho lds fo r the se func tio ns to wo rk we ll. ne e ds fo r ma ximizing the c lima te se c urity Co nne c t Sho rt-te rm E E A E ng a g e me nts T he Ope r a tiona l F r a me wor k of the E xte r na l E me r g e nc y Assista nc e be twe e n Ja pa n & the Philippine s with L o ng -te rm Risk Re duc tio n Ca la mity e xc e e d s the Ye s OCD <-> NDRRMC NDRRMC pla ys a thre sho ld ide ntifie d b y NDRRMC NDRRMC c ruc ia l ro le in R&R Re c o nstruc tio n Mitig a tio n Pre pa re dne ss Re c o mme nds re c o mme nding No PDNA Pre pa re dne ss L oc a litie s De plo y de c la ra tio n o f Pr e side nt na tio na l No inte rna tio na l c a la mity in the re spo nse c a ll fo r a ssista nc e me c ha nism Philippine s. OCD, DF A, Do F , fo r lo ng -te rm risk F De c la ra tio n o f the e e db a c k lo o p DSWD, DL I G e tc . Ja pa n a lwa ys mitig a tio n Sta te o f Ca la mity R&R is c o nstitute d o f sho rt pe rio d o f time whe re la rg e sums o f re so urc e s will b e se nd e me rg e nc y Ye s spe nt. a ssista nc e o nly Ca ll fo r I nte rna tio na l upo n re q ue st Assista nc e Muc h o f the se e xpe nditure s ma y no t le a d to lo ng -te rm risk mitig a tio n b e ne fits. Cr itic a l Critic a l thre sho ld thre shold Co nc e rne d c o nc e pt wo rks L Ja pa ne se inking e xpe rie nc e s a nd le sso ns fro m e ng a g e me nts re la te d to E E A a nd g o ve rnme nt MOF A E mb a ssy in Ma nila b e st fo r vo lunta ry No a g e nc ie s plo ug hing b a c k into o the r pha se s o f DRR spira l c o uld e nha nc e the va lue o f de plo yme nt o f Ja pa n re so urc e s e mplo ye d during the e me rg e nc y pha se . a ssista nc e JI CA/ MI L T / SDF e tc Orde r dispa tc h/ de live ry
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