Estimation of food loss related with consumption behavior in Japan The 25 th AIM International Workshop@NIES 19 th Nov 2019 National Institute for Environmental Studies(NIES) Yuko Kanamori (kanamori@nies.go.jp) This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund 3-1903 of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan.
1 Background • “ Food loss ” issue is one of the issues that have attention in recent years in Japan. • The Ministry of the Environment set a target to reduce food loss by half in 2030 compared with 2000 in the 4th Fundamental Plan for the Establishing a Sound Material-Cycle Society. 643 621 646 700 • The government has published the 600 Food loss (10000 t) 500 289 291 282 amount of food loss generated over the 400 last few years, but there is a problem 300 200 357 whether the value is accurate. 352 339 100 0 2014 2015 2016 Business Household
2 How to know amount of food loss from household ? • There are 2 way to know food loss generation from household. (1) Food loss surveys are conducted that the surveyed households measure and record the amount of food used and disposed of each time. (2) The local government conducts a composition survey of household waste and grasps the amount of food loss by type of food loss. • Problem • The burden of surveyed household/local government is large. • The survey period and the number of surveyed households/local government is limited. • Due to the above-mentioned problems, it is difficult that sufficient survey has been conducted to ascertain the exact amount of food loss. Objective of this research Grasp the amount of food purchased from household consumption expenditure on food, and estimate the amount of food loss.
3 Classification of food loss Estimation Target generation sector Food Restaurant Eating out Meals at home manufacturing industry ・Excessive removal industry ・Direct disposal Excessive Leftovers by ・Leftovers removal & direct customers after disposal before food provision Food wholesale food provision Food retailer ※Excessive removal…The parts where the skin of vegetables has been peeled too thick or removed. ※Direct disposal…Food that has expired and was discarded before cooking, such as by leaving it in the refrigerator. ※Leftovers…Food left over due to overproduction.
4 Estimation method Period Analysis of Japanese food characteristics and Household GDP effect trends composition Consumption expenditure on food Eating Cooked Foodstuff out food Price of food Estimation of amount of food & food Food loss loss in 2015 (base year) coefficient Amount of foodstuff Food loss coefficient Amount of Amount of food loss at food loss home when eating out
5 Analysis of Japanese food characteristics and trends ※ Two and more households ※ Single households Table. Consumption expenditure on food by age of householder Table. Consumption expenditure on food by age of householder 100% 100% 90% Elderly people 80% 80% Man tend to tend to 70% ・eat outside or cooked food 60% 60% ・eat more fish Young people tend to 50% ・eat more 40% ・eat outside 40% vegetables 30% 20% ・eat at home 20% 0% 10% Male ‐ 35 Male 35 ‐ 60 Male 60 ‐ Female ‐ 35 Female 35 ‐ 60 Female 60 ‐ 0% Cereals Fish & shellfish Meat Diary products & eggs Vegetables and seaweeds Fruits Cereals Fish & shellfish Meat Oils, fats & seasonings Cakes & candies Cooked food Diary products & eggs Vegetables and seaweeds Fruits Beverages Alcoholic beverages Meals outseide the home Oils, fats & seasonings Cakes & candies Cooked food Beverages Alcoholic beverages Meals outseide the home
6 Analysis of Japanese food characteristics and trends Table. Consumption expenditure rate on cooked food by age of householder 16.0% ⿂を⾷べなくなってきている 14.0% ※ Two and more households 12.0% Table. Consumption expenditure rate on fish & shellfish by age 10.0% of householder 8.0% 18.0% 6.0% 16.0% 4.0% 14.0% 2.0% 12.0% 0.0% 10.0% 〜 24 25 〜 30 〜 35 〜 40 〜 45 〜 50 〜 55 〜 60 〜 65 〜 70 〜 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 8.0% 6.0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 Table. Consumption expenditure rate on meals outside the home by age of householder 4.0% 30.0% 2.0% 0.0% 25.0% 〜 24 25 〜 30 〜 35 〜 40 〜 45 〜 50 〜 55 〜 60 〜 65 〜 70 〜 20.0% 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 15.0% 2000 2005 2010 2015 10.0% ✓At all ages, the proportion of fish consumed has 5.0% decreased. 0.0% ✓Eating out is increasing from young to middle age, and 〜 24 25 〜 30 〜 35 〜 40 〜 45 〜 50 〜 55 〜 60 〜 65 〜 70 〜 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 64 69 the use of cooked food is increasing in the elderly. 2000 2005 2010 2015
7 Estimation of purchased food and food loss Purchased food (2015) Food loss (2015) Unit: 10000 t Excessive Direct Estimated Statistic Leftovers Total E/S removal disposal value(E) value(S) Cereals 14.7 5.1 7.3 27.1 14% Cereals 733 618 119% Vagetables 55.3 7.4 10.7 73.5 39% Vagetables 826 1004 82% Mushrooms 1.2 0.2 0.2 1.6 1% Mushrooms 19 54 35% Fruits 24.1 6.2 1.1 31.4 17% Fruits 365 384 95% Meat 1.2 0.4 1.4 3.0 2% Eggs 0.8 0.2 0.9 2.0 1% Meat 138 250 55% Milk and diary products 0.0 0.8 0.5 1.3 1% Eggs 103 111 92% Estima Fish 4.5 0.5 5.0 9.9 5% Mild and diary products 159 415 38% te food Sugar 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0% loss Fish 171 121 142% Fats and oils 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0% Sugar 18 17 102% Seasonings 0.0 0.9 4.4 5.3 3% Cooked food 0.0 10.6 16.6 27.2 14% Fats and oils 39 45 86% Confectionery 0.0 4.3 0.8 5.1 3% Seasonings 143 250 57% Total 101.8 36.7 49.3 187.8 100% Cooked food 1509 1055 143% Confectionery 391 92 427% Total 4613 4416 104% 289 Unit: 10000 t
8 What is a reason of the gap? ✓ The problem of food loss coefficient - The food loss coefficient used for the estimation is the result of a survey on the amount of food loss generated at home. -Households that cooperate in surveys on the amount of food loss at home may be characterized by (1) households interested in the food loss problem and (2) living with a relatively small amount of food loss. ✓ The problem of food loss statistics - Food loss generation statistics are calculated from values obtained from waste surveys. - Due to the difficulty of conducting the survey, there are concerns such as (1) the bias of the survey results due to the bias in the survey local government (2) the moisture content of food loss changing when mixed with other garbage.
9 Future tasks • Review of food loss coefficient • I request the Ministry of the Environment to disclose detailed information on a survey on food waste and food loss. • Estimation of food loss generation by 2030 • Listing food loss reduction measures and quantifying their effects
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