Universidade do Minho Departamento de Engenharia Civil SEMINAR AND LUNCH ON EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING AND HISTORIC MASONRY July 12, 2010 EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND RISK EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION AND RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FROM CONCEPT ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FROM CONCEPT TO REAL APPLICATIONS TO REAL APPLICATIONS YASIN M. FAHJAN Department of Earthquake and Structural Sciences Gebze Institute of Technology, Gebze, Kocaeli, Turkey fahjan@ gyte.edu.tr
� HAZARD ASSESSMENT � INVENTORY OF ELEMENTS AT RISK � VULNERABILITIES � RISK ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY � LOSS RESULTS Event Event Local Site Effects: Local Site Effects: Attenuation of Seismic Energy Attenuation of Seismic Energy
Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Level Level
SEISMIC HAZARD SEISMIC HAZARD � Deterministic � Consider small number of scenarios: magnitude, distance, number of standard deviation of ground motion � Choose the largest ground motion from cases considered � Probabilistic � Consider all possible scenarios: all magnitude, distance and number of
DETERMINISTIC APPROACH DETERMINISTIC APPROACH Attenuation Attenuation Relationship Relationship
PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD � Seism ic source characterization � Estim ation of seism icity ( recurrence) param eters for each source � Selection of ground m otion attenuation m odels � Quantification of the seism ic hazard Faults SOURCE GROUND MOTI ON log( N) RECURRENCE (line sources) MODELS ATTENUATI ON pga, S a , A i F 1 F 2 Area distance M source SEI SMI C HAZARD MAP SEI SMI C Probability of exceedance HAZARD CURVES Acceleration
SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION Active faults of eastern Marmara region during the last century (Akyuz et al., 2000) The recent high-resolution bathymetric map obtained from the survey of the Ifremer RV Le Suroit vessel that indicates a single, thoroughgoing strike-slip fault system (LePichon et al., 2001)
Historical Earthquakes: the Earthquake Historical Earthquakes: the Earthquake Catalog Catalog The long-term seismicity of the Marmara region (Seismicity between 32 AD –1983 taken from Ambraseys and Finkel, 1991)
th century (after Hubert The sequence of earthquakes in the 18 th century (after Hubert- - The sequence of earthquakes in the 18 Ferrari, 2000). Ferrari, 2000).
The seismic activity of the Marmara region with M>3 events from August 17, 1999 to present Koeri, 2002
Koeri, 2002
Source Zonation Zonation Scheme Scheme Source Koeri, 2002
RECURRENCE RELATIONSHIPS RECURRENCE RELATIONSHIPS Koeri, 2002
Koeri, 2002 The NEHRP-based Soil Classification
Site - -correction Defined correction Defined i in n t t he 1997 NEHRP he 1997 NEHRP Site Provisions (NEHRP 1997). Provisions (NEHRP 1997). Fa, the short period site-correction defined in the 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997) Fv, the long period site correction defined in 1997 NEHRP Provisions (NEHRP 1997)
Site dependent seismic hazard assessment Site dependent seismic hazard assessment Koeri, 2002 Site dependent SA (T=0.2 s) map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
Site dependent seismic hazard assessment Site dependent seismic hazard assessment Koeri, 2002 Site dependent SA (T=1.0 s) map for 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
Standard Shape of the Design Design Spectrum Spectrum Standard Shape of the (NEHRP 1997) (NEHRP 1997) Sa S MS Sa=S M1 / T S M1 0.4 S MS T 0 T S 1.0 Period
RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS LEVELS RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS LEVELS National Level City Level Building Level (District & Sub-district)
Risk Assessment At NATIONAL Level Risk Assessment At NATIONAL Level Intensity based estimation for the total damage for each city
Assessment Procedures At At Building Building Level Level Assessment Procedures Members Capacity Strong Ground Motion Time Histroy
Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Seismic Risk Assessment Procedure at City Level Level
ELEMENTS AT RISK ELEMENTS AT RISK • Buildings • Lifeline Systems Built Environment • Population • Socio-Economic Activities
Vulnerability Estimation Methodology Vulnerability Estimation Methodology � Observed Vulnerability Based on Previous Earthquake Damage Data � Calculated Vulnerability Based on computed performance of the building class
Observed Vulnerability Observed Vulnerability � Advantage � Based on Observed Damage in previous Earthquakes � Simple Concept � Limitations � Intensity Based that does not fit to Current Engineering parameters � Regional Building Class � Can not apply to New Classes of building
HAZUS, 2003
Classification of Structural Damages Classification of Structural Damages EMS-1998
Koeri, 2002
Calculated Vulnerability Calculated Vulnerability � Advantage � Based on Engineering Ground Motion Parameters � Applied to all building classes � Based on Soil and Structural Response � Limitations � Not based on damage data � Non-structural failure can not be considered
HAZUS, 2003
General Analysis Analysis Procedure Procedure For For Buildings Buildings Loss Loss General Estimation Estimation IST, 2004
Line plot for vulnerability curves Line plot for vulnerability curves
Classification of Structural Damage (1) Slight damage (2) Moderate damage (3) Extensive damage (4) Complete damage Classification of Casualties � Severity 1 Injuries requiring basic medical aid w ithout requiring hospitalization � Severity 2 Injuries requiring a greater degree of medical care and hospitalization � Severity 3 Injuries that pose an immediate life threatening condition if not treated adequately and expeditiously � Severity 4 Instantaneously killed or mortally injured
Example for Classification of Building Types Example for Classification of Building Types According to Existing Database According to Existing Database Construction Type ( I ) 1. Skeleton type reinforced concrete building 2. Reinforced concrete shear w all buildings 3. Masonry and plain concrete buildings Number of stories ( J ) 1. Low rise (1-3 stories) 2. Mid rise (4-6 stories) 3. High-rise (more than 6 stories) Construction date ( K ) 1. Construction year: Pre-1985 2. Construction year: Post-1985
Input Building Input Spectral Input Spectral Calibration with Inventory Acceleration for Displacement Intensity Based Database for Geo-Cells Based Vulnerabilities Geo-Cells Vulnerabilities Spectral Displacement Based Loss Spectral Displacement Based Loss Compute Building Damage Ratio Input Capacity for each Building Types Curve for each Building Type Estimation Analysis Estimation Analysis Compute Number of Damaged Buildings for each building Class Input Economic Compute Direct Economic Loss Loss Data for each Building Damage State Parameters Compute Casualties for each Input Injury Groups Demographic Database for Geo-Cells Casualtie Economi Buildings Input Casualties s Losses c Losses Damages Loss data for geo- for geo- for geo- Parameters Cells, Cells, Cells, Sub- Sub- Sub- district, district, district, Districts Districts Districts
Transportation Systems Systems Transportation Highw ay Systems: A highw ay transportation system consists of roadw ays, bridges and tunnels. ( geographical location, classification, and replacement cost of the system components) � Highw ay Roads � Major Roads � Urban Roads � Highw ay Bridges
Transportation system: Earthquake Transportation system: Earthquake Vulnerability and Damage Vulnerability and Damage Road damages consist of the surface damages and collapse of the neighboring slopes or retaining w alls. Also collapsed underpasses or buildings can block the traffic even if the motorw ay is not damaged. According to ATC 25, the ratio of damage of local roads during an earthquake are given as %2 for MMI V, %4 for MMI VI, %11 for MMI VII, and %32 for MMI VIII
Lifeline Utility Utility Systems Systems Lifeline Potable Water System A potable w ater system consists of pipelines, w ater treatment plants, w ells, storage tanks and pumping stations. ( geographical location and classification of system components. repair cost for pipelines ) � Brittle Pipe � Ductile Pipe � Wells, Water Storage Tanks, Water Treatment Plants � Pumping Plants Waste Water A w aste w ater system consists of pipelines, w aste w ater treatment plants and lift stations. (geographical location and classification of system components, repair cost for pipelines).
Damage Functions for Water Pipelines for Water Pipelines Damage Functions
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