Urban Earthquake Loss Assessment by ELER U. Hancilar, C. Tuzun, C. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Urban Earthquake Loss Assessment by ELER U. Hancilar, C. Tuzun, C. Yenidogan, M. Erdik Department of Earthquake Engineering, Kandilli Observatory & Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), Boğaziçi University, Istanbul, Turkey Urban Habitat Constructions under Catastrophic Events 16-18 September 2010, Naples,Italy

Outline  Introduction  Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine (ELER)  Spectral Capacity Based Vulnerability Assessment  Casualty Asessment  Conclusions

Introduction Earthquake Rapid Response Systems  Modern technology permits measurements of strong ground shaking in near real-time for urban areas exposed to earthquake risk.  The assessments of the distribution of strong ground motion, building damage and casualties can be made within few minutes after an earthquake.  The ground motion measurement and data processing systems designed to provide this information are called Earthquake Rapid Response Systems. Potential impact of large earthquakes on urban societies can be reduced by timely and correct action after a disastrous earthquake.

Introduction (cont.)  Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response and public information.  Earthquake shaking and loss information is ultimately intended for dissemination in a timely manner to related agencies for the planning and coordination of the post- earthquake emergency response.  A methodology and software package, Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine-ELER , for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro- Mediterranean region was developed under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 Project entitled “ Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology-NERIES (www.neries- eu.org)”.

Introduction (cont.)  Earthquake losses might be assessed in regional and/or in urban scale.  Regional estimates of damage to built-environment and assessment of human losses can be achieved using region-specific theoretical/empirical vulnerability relationships in connection with regional inventories of physical and social elements exposed to risk.  In urban scale, more detailed inventories of elements at risk are required in order to use with analytical vulnerability relationships for the estimation of earthquake losses.

ELER Software  ELER software incorporates both regional and urban-scale almost real-time estimation of losses after a major earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region.  The software package coded in MATLAB environment comprises of a Hazard Module and three loss estimation modules: Level 0, Level 1 and Level 2.

ELER ELER ELER Hazard Parameters Earthquake Source Earthquake Source Earthquake Source Parameters Parameters Parameters Tectonic Entities Tectonic Entities Tectonic Entities Hazard Calculation HAZARD Module HAZARD Module HAZARD Module (at reference soil) (at reference soil) (at reference soil) External Hazard External Hazard External Hazard Data Data Data Site Response Site Response Site Response Vs30 Distribution Vs30 Distribution Vs30 Distribution Module Module Module Overview of External Site Response External Site Response External Site Response ELER Data Data Data USGS ShakeMap USGS ShakeMap USGS ShakeMap Module Module Module SHAKEMAP SHAKEMAP SHAKEMAP Software Online Online Online Components Accelerometric Accelerometric Accelerometric Data Data Data Vulnerability Modules Vulnerability Modules Vulnerability Modules (Intensity and Spectral Displacement (Intensity and Spectral Displacement (Intensity and Spectral Displacement Based) Based) Based) User Supplied User Supplied User Supplied Vulnerability Vulnerability Modules Vulnerability Modules Vulnerability Modules Calculation Default Physical and Social Inventory Data Default Physical and Social Inventory Data Default Physical and Social Inventory Data User Supplied Physical User Supplied Physical User Supplied Physical and Social Inventory Data and Social Inventory Data and Social Inventory Data Physical Loss Physical Losses Physical Losses Physical Losses and Casualties and Casualties and Casualties Calculation Representation of Mapping and Mapping and Mapping and Reporting Reporting Reporting Results

ELER Software Analysis Levels

ELER Software – Level 2  Level 2 module of the ELER software (similar to HAZUS, 1999 and HAZUS-MH, 2003) essentially aims at assessing the earthquake risk (building damage, consequential human casualties and macro economic loss quantifiers) in urban areas.  Spectral capacity based vulnerability assessment methodology is utilized for building damage estimations.

ELER Software – Level 2 Spectral Displacement-Based Vulnerability and Damage Assessment Methodology METHODS of BUILDING DAMAGE ESTIMATION  Capacity Spectrum Method - ATC 40  MADRS - FEMA 440 (bilinear hysteretic, stiffness degrading, strength degrading and approximate equations)  Reduction Factor Method - Fajfar 2000  Coefficient Method - ASCE 41-06

Level 2 - Spectral Displacement-Based Vulnerability and Damage Assessment Methodology D e m a n d & c a p a c ity s p e c tra fo r d iffe re n t d u ra tio n s o f s h a k in g Spectral Acceleration Spectral Acceleration 1 .0 C a p a c ity C u rv e Spectral Acceleration S p e c t r a l a 0 .8 D e m a n d C u rv e 0 .6 P e rfo rm a n c e P o in t 0 .4 3 0 % 0 .2 2 5 % 0 .0 2 0 % 0 .0 0 .1 0 .2 1 5 % S p e c tra l d is p la c e m e n t (m ) 1 0 % E x a m p le F ra g ility C u rv e s 5 % 1 0 0 % Percentage of exceeding 0 % P e r c e n t a g e o e x c e e d i n g d a 9 0 % Percentage of exceeding N o S lig h t M o d e ra te E x te n s iv e C o m p le te 8 0 % D a m a g e 7 0 % damage 6 0 % damage 5 0 % Distribution of Buildings at 4 0 % 3 0 % Discrete Damage Levels 2 0 % 1 0 % 0 % 0 .0 0 0 .0 5 0 .1 0 0 .1 5 0 .2 0 S p e c tra l R e s p o n s e (m ) S lig h t M o d e ra te E x te n s iv e C o m p le te Performance point and damage probability calculation

Level 2 – Building Taxonomy RISK-UE Building Types of HAZUS-1999 Building Typology Matrix Typology Description M1 M1 Stone Masonry Bearing Walls made of... M1.1 Rubble stone, fieldstone M1.2 Simple stone M1.3 Massive stone M2 Adobe M3 M3 Unreinforced masonry Bearing walls with... M3.1 Masonry with Wooden slabs M3.2 Masonry vaults M3.3 Composite steel and masonry slabs M3.4 Reinforced concrete slabs M4 Reinforced or confined masonry walls M5 Overall strengthened RC1 Concrete Moment Frames RC2 Concrete shear walls Concrete frames with unreinforced masonry infill RC3 RC3 walls RC3.1 Regularly infilled walls RC3.2 Irregularly infilled walls RC4 RC Dual systems (RC frame and wall) RC5 Precast Concrete Tilt-Up Walls RC6 Precast C. Frames, C. shear walls S1 Steel Moment Frames S2 Steel braced Frames S3 Steel frame+unreinf. mas. infill walls S4 Steel frame+cast-in-place shear walls S5 Steel and RC composite system W Wood structures

Spectral Capacity Based Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Components  Earthquake demand representation: Demand Spectrum  Structural system representation: Building Capacity Spectrum

Spectral Capacity Based Vulnerability Assessment Methodology Components  Structural response assessment: Performance Point  Representation of damage probability: Fragility Curves 1 0.9 0.8 Cumulative Damage Probability 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50         Spectral Displacement (cm) | (1/ )ln( / ) P Damage D S S S     Slight Damage Moderate Damage Extensive Damage Complete Damage k dp k dp d k ,

Spectral Capacity Based Vulnerability Assessment Spectral capacity based vulnerability and damage assessment methodology

Casualty Assessment  The casualty estimation is based on HAZUS99 and HAZUS- MH (2003) methodologies.  Grid based demographic data defining the number of people residing in each geo-cell should be provided.  The output consists of a casualty breakdown by injury severity level, defined by a four level injury severity scale (Durkin et al. 1991, Coburn 1992, Cheu 1994).  The casualty model itself in fact is based on the models suggested by Coburn and Spence (1992), Murakami (1992) and Shiono et al. (1991).  However, unlike other approaches, the methodology is in event-tree format and thus is capable of taking into account non-collapse related casualties.

Casualty Assessment  To estimate the casualties from structural damage, the model combines inputs from other HAZUS modules including the probability of being in the damage state and the relationship between the general occupancy classes and the model building type with specific casualty inputs provided for each damage state (D1-slight, D2 moderate, D3 Extensive, D4 Complete, D5 complete with collapse structural damage) in combination with occupancy data and time event.  Casualties for any given building type, building damage level and injury severity level can be calculated by the following equation: Kij = Population per Building * Number of Damaged Building in damage state j* Casualty Rate for severity level i and damage state j