20/01/2014 Ranking climate change adaptation options through multi-criteria analysis Karianne de Bruin Senior Research Fellow – CICERO NZCCRI Seminar Series Wednesday 4 th December 2013 Multi ‐ criteria analysis Cost ‐ benefit analysis Decision support tools Iterative risk Cost ‐ (adaptive) effectiveness management Robust analysis decision making Decision support tools Portfolio analysis Real options analysis The Netherlands India 1
20/01/2014 Decision support tools Multi ‐ criteria analysis Cost ‐ benefit analysis Iterative risk Cost ‐ (adaptive) effectiveness management Robust analysis Decision decision making support tools Portfolio analysis Real options analysis 2
20/01/2014 Multi ‐ criteria analysis Cost ‐ benefit analysis Iterative risk Cost ‐ (adaptive) effectiveness management Robust Decision analysis decision making support tools Portfolio analysis Real options analysis Multi-Criteria Analysis Approach that allows consideration of both quantitative and qualitative data in the ranking of alternative options Systematic method for assessing and scoring options against a range of decision criteria 3
20/01/2014 Approach (1) - Identify alternative options - Select criteria - Scores options against criteria - Assign weights to each criterion - Calculate weighted sum - Rank options Approach (2) Urgency Feasibility Costs … 3 2 1 5 5 5 4 3 5 … 4
20/01/2014 Strengths Weaknesses - Combine quantitative - Subjective scoring and qualitative data and weighting - Transparent and - Analysis of simple method uncertainty - Involvement stakeholders Application to adaptation - Consideration of relevant criteria - Analysis with qualitative information 5
20/01/2014 Multi Criteria Adaptation Assessment in the Netherlands Photo: Karianne de Bruin Background (1) Routeplanner project - Formulation of adaptation options - A qualitative assessment of adaptation options - A quantitative assessment of adaptation options 6
20/01/2014 Background (2) Project team Funding Environmental Economics BSIK program’s Climate and Natural Resources change Spatial Planning, group – Wageningen Living with Water, Habiforum University Governmental departments in cooperation with the In co-operation with: RIZA, Associations of Provincial RIKZ, ESA-WUR, Alterra, Authorities, Netherlands LEI, PRI, Erasmus Municipalities and Water University Boards Starting point Climate change scenario relevant for the Netherlands for the period up to 2050 Source: KNMI, 2006 7
20/01/2014 Methodology - Identification of adaptation options - Characteristics of the options - Definition of criteria - Determining the scores - Determining the weights MCA for ranking the adaptation options Identification options 96 adaptation options identified Sectors: - Agriculture - Nature - Water - Energy & Transport - Housing & Infrastructure - Health - Recreation & Tourism 8
20/01/2014 Criteria for scoring (1) Evaluation criteria Importance Urgency No-regret characteristics Co-benefits Effect on mitigation Criteria for scoring (2) Feasibility criteria Technical complexity Social complexity Institutional complexity 9
20/01/2014 Scoring Options scored on evaluation and feasibility criteria by experts Ranking Ranking based on Criteria Ordering Weights Importance 1 40% ordered criteria (e.g. 1 Urgency 2 20% No regret 3 15% urgency, 2 importance, Ancillary benefits 4 15% Mitigation effect 5 10% etc.) Ranking based on Criteria Ordering Weights Importance 1 40% criteria weighting (e.g. Urgency 2 20% No regret 3 15% 40% importance, 20% Ancillary benefits 4 15% Mitigation effect 5 10% urgency) 10
20/01/2014 Database Results (1) Highest priority (weighted summation) - Integrated nature and water management - Integrated coastal zone management - More space for water - Risk based allocation policy - Risk management as basic strategy - New institutional alliances - Design and implementation of ecological networks - Construct buildings differently - Change modes of transport - Make existing and new cities robust 11
20/01/2014 Results (2) Lowest priority (weighted summation) - Subsoil drainage of peat lands - Reclamation of (part of) southern North Sea - Abandoning of the whole of low-lying Netherlands - Self sufficiency in production of roughage Follow-up National Strategy on Adapting Spatial Planning to Climate Change (ARK), with the aim of ‘climate proofing’ the Netherlands From the National Adaptation Strategy to the Deltaprogramme, where the Dutch government formulated new priorities in the field of adaptation to climate change http://www.deltacommissie.com/en/advies http://www.climateresearchnetherlands.nl/ARKprogramme 12
20/01/2014 Participatory assessment of adaptation options, India Photo: Karianne de Bruin Background (1) Pilot project ‘Extreme risks, vulnerabilities and Community- Based Adaptation (EVA)’ in India Impacts of extreme weather events on agriculture and water resources in the drought-prone Jalna district, Maharashtra 13
20/01/2014 Background (2) Five partners in consortium: AFPRO, TERI and CIENS (NIBR, CICERO, NIVA) Funded by the Norwegian Embassy, New Delhi Participatory assessment - Long-list of 26 adaptation options identified, focused on agriculture, water and social development - Definition of criteria - Block-level officers and at village cluster level rank criteria and score adaptation options 14
20/01/2014 Field work Photos: Ulka Kelkar & Karianne de Bruin Preliminary results (1) - Construction of water conservation structures - Educating youth - Integrated farming system - Ground water regulation - Water budgeting 15
20/01/2014 Preliminary results (2) - Water conservation - Drip irrigation - Women’s capacity building - Strengthening of self-help groups Photo: Karianne de Bruin for credit Multi-criteria analysis Multi ‐ criteria analysis Cost ‐ benefit analysis Cost ‐ effectiveness analysis Decision support tools 16
20/01/2014 Summary - Decision-support tool to assess and rank adaptation options - Broad applicability - Combine with economic assessment of costs and benefits Weaknesses Strengths - Combine quantitative - Subjective scoring and qualitative data and weighting - Transparent and - Analysis of simple method uncertainty - Involvement of experts and stakeholders 17
20/01/2014 References - De Bruin, K., R.B. Dellink, A. Ruijs, L. Bolwidt, A. van Buuren, J. Graveland, R.S. de Groot, P.J. Kuikman, S. Reinhard, R.P. Roetter, V.C. Tassone, A. Verhagen and E.C. van Ierland (2009). Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives. Climatic Change 95(1-2): 23-45 (doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9576-4) - Van Ierland, E.C., de Bruin, K., and Watkiss, P. (2013). Multi-Criteria Analysis: Decision Support Methods for Adaptation, MEDIATION Project, Briefing Note 6. Funded by the EC’s 7FWP – including references for further reading - Van Ierland, E.C., de Bruin, K. and R.B. Dellink, forthcoming. Prioritisation of adaptation options for the Netherlands: A Multi- Criteria Analysis. Climate Change Adaptation Manual, Lessons learned from European and Other Industrialised Countries. Edited by: A. Prutsch, T. Grothmann, S. McCallum, I. Schauser and R. Swart. Routledge 18
20/01/2014 Thank you for your attention Photo: Karianne de Bruin Contact details: karianne.debruin@cicero.oslo.no 19
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